DFL Supercup, Saturday, 17.08.2024 at 20:30
The DFL Supercup is an exciting way to kick off the new season, pitting the German champions against the cup winners – or, as in this case, the runners-up.
This season, Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart will meet, meaning that for the first time in over a decade, the record champions will only be able to watch the match on TV.
Both teams have performed strongly in pre-season and exceeded their respective expectations. Meanwhile, in my Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart prediction, I’ve given some thought to the possible betting scenarios that are worth backing
For Leverkusen, the DFL Super Cup is an opportunity to continue last season’s positive trend and show the bookmakers that they can win the Bundesliga again this season.
Swabia, on the other hand, want to get themselves in shape for the Champions League group stage and at the same time prove that they were no flash in the pan.
Both teams have strengthened their squads – or at least managed to avoid a major sell-out – with Stuttgart in particular putting in some really promising performances in preparation.
In my Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart prediction, we get down to the nitty-gritty and look at the starting position as well as a possible course of the match!
The prediction of the bookmakers?
The Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart betting odds for the DFL Super Cup final reflect the bookmakers’ assessments. B04 is the favorite, with odds for a win that are close to 1.80.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, are given odds of around 3.90 for a win by the sports betting providers, while a draw promises almost identical odds of 3.80 with most bookies.
These odds show that the reigning German champions are seen as stronger and the departure of Serhou Guirassy is perceived as a significant weakening on the other side.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen’s near-perfect season, which only came to an end in the final competitive match of the 2024/25 season, will be talked about for a long time to come.
Nevertheless, just one defeat after 54 competitive matches is still an outstanding achievement that is unlikely to be surpassed in the near future (49 wins, 9 draws).
In addition, the big sell-out was successfully prevented. Even though Jonathan Tah may yet move to Bayern, many of the key players in coach Xabi Alonso’s system have been retained.
What’s more, with the additions of Aleix García (Girona), Jeanuel Belocian (Rennes) and Martin Terrier (Rennes), there is no reason to doubt that Leverkusen will not be able to repeat their success of the previous season.
The test matches in August against Lens (2:2), Arsenal (1:4) and Betis (1:1) did not result in victories, but a false start to the new season is not to be expected
The most important news for VfB Stuttgart is, of course, that Deniz Undav has been retained. The departure of the best dual leadership in Stuttgart’s club history would have been difficult for the fans to digest.
There is also reason to believe that the new strike duo of Undav/Demirovic will be just as successful as the previous Undav/Guirassy duo.
The new signing from FC Augsburg scored a magnificent goal in the impressive 4:0 win against Athletic Bilbao a few days ago.
The Swabian attack was also able to recharge its batteries in the test matches: a total of 17 goals were scored in the 3-0 win against Sittard and the victories against the Japanese clubs Kyoto (5-3) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5-2).
These goals are a warning to the Leverkusen defense and show that their defenders have a very demanding task ahead of them on Saturday.
Quota analysis
If you are leaning towards a goal from Ermedin Demirovic, the bookmaker NEObet offers you a good payout/risk ratio with odds of around 3.10.
Here are two more Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart tips that have also made it onto my shortlist.
Both teams to score – Yes: With odds of around 1.55, this bet is worthwhile, as both B04 and Stuttgart are strong offensively and both teams will have a good chance of scoring.
Over 3.5 goals: A bet of this type at odds of around 2.37 is also attractive. Both teams have the potential for a high-scoring game, as Leverkusen’s attacking quality and VfB’s fast counter-attacks have the potential for plenty of spectacle.
B04 – VfB: Both teams (almost) guaranteed to score
It’s debatable whether four total goals should necessarily be expected in the DFL Super Cup, but it’s indisputable that both sides have a lot of attacking potential.
What is also “indisputable” is that a both teams meeting bet in the user-friendly Sunmaker app with odds of around 1.55 may not yield too much profit, but it can be booked as an almost certain Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart bet.
Because in nine of the last ten direct duels, both sides have scored at least once. In addition, the last two encounters in the 2023/24 Bundesliga second half and the DFB Cup were particularly eventful for B04 with 2:2 and 3:2 respectively
The 2nd half could be a great one!
Both teams will probably be a bit more aggressive than if it were the 1st Bundesliga matchday on Saturday.
In any case, I wouldn’t necessarily want to put my money on things getting heated right from the start. In fact, it might be worth limiting your goal bet to the second half.
The data provides some interesting facts on this:
In the last two competitive matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart, a total of nine goals were scored, with only one of these goals coming before the break.
Furthermore, in the last six head-to-head meetings, the first half has never proved to be the highest scoring. In four cases it was the second half that produced more goals, and in two cases the same number of goals were scored in both halves
Although I have great respect for Stuttgart, who are already very well established, I can’t blame sports betting fans who want to put a win for the German champions on their betting slip.
After all, Stuttgart have not beaten the Werkself in the last six years. During this period, they have played 12 competitive matches, of which the Rhinelanders have won eight (4 draws).
A little encouragement for all VfB fans: Leverkusen have only won one match against the Swabians since 2023 (1 win, 3 draws)
My tip:
Both teams have a lot of offensive potential. Leverkusen have convinced me a little more on the transfer market, but Stuttgart have delivered better test match results in return.
I’m expecting big things from Ermedin Demirovic in particular as a replacement for Serhou Guirassy. In any case, the second half should be the part of the game where things get going on Sunday.
Especially as 8 of the last 9 goals in games between these two clubs have come after the restart.
So my Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart tip is: More goals will be scored in the 2nd half
