Leverkusen – Union Berlin Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 6 on Saturday, 10/04/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
Leverkusen’s new start under Kaspar Hjulmand is still not really getting off the ground. Under the former Danish national coach, the Werkself are still unbeaten, but five competitive games have only yielded two wins.
Ahead of their home game against Union Berlin, the Rhinelanders therefore have to live with being just one point ahead of the Iron in the Bundesliga table. However, this does not change the fact that they are the clear favorites with international and German betting providers.
In my Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin prediction, I have also decided to put my faith in the reigning runners-up. However, Bayer will not get away unscathed on Saturday afternoon.
Having conceded at least one goal in every game so far this season, the Köpenickers are sure to get on the scoresheet at the BayArena.
A glance at the successes celebrated in the early stages of the season makes it clear that Berlin’s offensive department is currently thriving against stronger opponents.
Eintracht Frankfurt were beaten 4-3, while at home, the reigning cup winners were taken to task with a 2-0 win over VfB Stuttgart at the Alte Försterei.
Only in Dortmund did Union fail to get a result, as usual, which once again supports Werkself’s status as favorites ahead of the upcoming match.
Leverkusen – Union Berlin Prediction & Betting
Leverkusen can practically not lose against Union. After 15 competitive matches, the Werkself have only suffered one defeat, which was at the Alte Försterei in Berlin.
With a remarkable goal difference of 9-0 in their last three home games, this match is ideal for a handicap bet. I found odds of just over 2.80 for a handicap of -1 in the Betano app.
Even more likely is Leverkusen scoring the first goal at odds of 1.55, as Bayer has scored the first goal of the game on each of the previous five matchdays. In the Champions League, too, the Werks-Kicker were the first team to score against Copenhagen and PSV.
However, after his hat trick in Frankfurt, Oliver Burke has also earned my appreciation. If the former Bremen player scores at least once, that would easily be enough to quintuple the bet.
What you need to know about Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin betting
- Bayer Leverkusen’s 5.32 goals conceded per game after five matchdays is the third-best defensive performance in the Bundesliga this season.
- No team has recorded more shots on goal from set pieces after five matchdays than Union Berlin with 35. That’s an average of 7.0 shots on goal per 90 minutes.
- The 2.5-goal line in the odds for Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin is the lowest goal line in the Bundesliga on matchday six. Nevertheless, both Union Berlin (3.80) and Leverkusen (3.60) have an average of well over 2.5 goals per 90 minutes this season.
- Union Berlin’s Andrej Ilic leads the Bundesliga assist list with five assists in five games, two more than any other player in the league.
Leverkusen – Union Berlin: AI tip & odds analysis
While I could perhaps even warm to the idea of at least two Union goals, our Leverkusen Union Berlin AI prediction is cut from a different cloth.
Because FCU doesn’t even reach an expected goal value of 1.00 here, this calls for a shutout home win for the Leverkusen hosts. At Bwin Sports Betting, this tip is currently quoted at 2.75.
The low expectations for Berlin also affect the predicted number of total goals. However, the recommended under 3.5 goals at odds of around 1.41 are primarily a case for a combination bet.
The premises painstakingly compiled here naturally also call for a result tip. With a 2-0 win for Leverkusen, our artificial intelligence keeps the damage for Berlin within limits – at the top, this prediction is quoted at a generous 8.50.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin
The bookies are not fazed by the currently negligible differences between the two teams in the table and are therefore planning to offer very clear-cut Leverkusen Union Berlin odds.
A home win for Bayer is quoted at an average of only around 1.65, which in turn results in away odds of up to 5.00. Even a draw is well above the usual average at 4.10.
Since Union has never won in Leverkusen, as mentioned above, it seems to be a manageable risk for the bookmakers to throw around such high Union odds here.
But even here, we’ve seen horses throw up in front of the pharmacy before. After all, Union were good for similarly high odds in Frankfurt, while Werkself lost two of their last four home games across two seasons!
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Match Analysis:
Only one point separates these two teams in the Bundesliga ahead of their direct clash. However, all signs point to Leverkusen being the dominant team this weekend.
Union Berlin will once again be content to generously allow their opponents possession of the ball. With 20.03, Union Berlin allow the most passes per defensive action in the Bundesliga.
Nevertheless, Steffen Baumgart’s team has the third-strongest defense in the league. This passive defensive strategy means that Leverkusen will be almost solely responsible for dictating the play. But how effective can the team be with this approach?
The loss of Florian Wirtz has clearly affected Leverkusen’s attack. Their xG value of 7.08 is only in the lower half of the Bundesliga.
Nevertheless, Leverkusen had more expected goals than their opponents in both home games under Kasper Hjulmand and should create more scoring chances than Union here if they can stop their opponents’ counterattacks early on.
Leverkusen form check
Danish coach Kasper Hjulmand seems to have stabilized Leverkusen after a difficult start under Erik ten Hag. The hosts’ strength lies primarily in their robust defense, with an expected goals against average (xGA) of 5.5 – the third-best in the league.
Despite conceding eight goals, the underlying data points to a solidity that could translate into fewer goals conceded in future games. However, Leverkusen has yet to keep a clean sheet in any competition this season.
Offensively, Leverkusen has been very efficient in the Bundesliga with ten goals from 7.2 expected goals (xG), thanks in part to Grimaldo’s free kick goals.
At home, Leverkusen has been fairly inconsistent so far with one win, one draw, and one loss. Hosting Union Berlin, Leverkusen will be looking to win two league games in a row for the first time since April 5, 2025.
Union Berlin form check
Union Berlin’s season has been mixed so far: the team has managed two wins, but has often struggled to control the game.
In attack, Union has scored eight goals, slightly exceeding its expected goals (xG) of seven. However, weaknesses in defense are evident: Union has conceded eleven goals, while its expected goals against (xGA) are “only” 9.8.
Particularly worrying is their away record, with three goals conceded per game against Champions League teams Frankfurt and Dortmund. Union has the lowest possession percentage in the league at 31.9%, as the team prefers a direct style of play and otherwise relies on Andrej Ilić’s heading ability.
On Saturday, Union face Bayer Leverkusen, another Champions League team, and coach Steffen Baumgart will probably have to rely on set pieces and quick counterattacks.
The 4-3 win in Frankfurt showed that this can work. Without tightening up their defense, however, Union are likely to struggle to leave the BayArena with anything to show for their efforts.
