EFL Cup final, Sunday, 3/16/2025 at 5:30 p.m.
Liverpool and Newcastle face off in the EFL Cup final – and it’s for the first title of the 2024/25 English football season!
The game will not be played at Anfield Road, but at the legendary Wembley Stadium, where the Magpies have not always had the best experiences. Can they break the spell this time, or will the LFC prevail again?
Meanwhile, you can put my sophisticated Liverpool Newcastle tip to the test at any verified betting provider.
Liverpool have not yet fully recovered from the Champions League defeat against PSG, but the chance of winning a title could quickly create new euphoria.
A triumph in the EFL Cup would be just the right remedy to help them forget the disappointment and give the fanbase new hope.
Newcastle will also be weakened by the absence of three key players: Lascelles, Botman and Gordon. Can the Magpies compensate for this loss, or will LFC take advantage of the opportunity?
The betting providers’ prediction?
The bookmakers believe Liverpool are clear favorites in the final against Newcastle. With odds of 1.65, the Reds are clearly ahead, while an upset victory for the Magpies would be rewarded with 4.90.
The draw is at 4.20 – value for brave tipsters?
In short: according to these Liverpool Newcastle odds, LFC should not let this opportunity slip away.
Analysis: Liverpool vs Newcastle
The first major English football final of the season takes place on Sunday at Wembley Stadium: title defenders Liverpool face Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final.
After the bitter Champions League defeat on penalties, it will be interesting to see how the Reds react – but so far this season, they have never lost two games in a row.
Last year, a young Liverpool team under Jürgen Klopp secured the title, and now Arne Slot wants to get the first trophy of his tenure. However, injury concerns in the defense do not make the task any easier.
Historically, Liverpool have the upper hand: they have won seven of their last eight meetings with Newcastle, most recently a 2-0 home win in January.
Newcastle, however, are hoping to finally win a major title – the last one was almost 70 years ago.
Their confidence is sky-high after beating West Ham 1-0 and then comfortably seeing off Arsenal 4-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals. Anthony Gordon scored in both games against the Gunners, but he is missing through suspension.
Injuries to Lewis Hall are another blow for Eddie Howes’s team. Nevertheless, the “Toon Army” will give their all at Wembley to carry their team to their first major triumph since 1955.
Odds Analysis
“Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.15 sounds reasonable, because, as you will soon find out, EFL Cup finals are largely low-scoring. The final matches are often characterized by tactics, and big offensive spectacles tend to be absent.
At 3.95, “draw” is optimal in terms of risk-return. After all, it cannot be ruled out that there will be extra time between Liverpool and Newcastle – both teams could neutralize each other in a close duel.
Largely goalless Carabao Cup final?
A 0-0, 1-0 or 2-0 for either side is considered a realistic result from the perspective of football analysts, because recent statistics clearly indicate that a high-scoring final is unlikely.
Surprisingly, only one of the last seven Carabao Cup finals ended with goals on both sides in regular time.
This shows that finals in this competition are often characterized by tactics and defensive stability, while the risk is minimized.
Salah vs. Isak: Who will score the first goal?
Goals should not be too many, but both teams have a candidate who is likely to score the only goal of the game.
Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak are particularly in the spotlight. The Egyptian has been involved in 11 of Liverpool’s last six meetings with Newcastle (4 goals, 7 assists), making him a real X-factor.
But the Swede has also impressed with his 22 goals for Newcastle this season, 16 of them before the break!
Incidentally, I see a slight advantage for the Egyptian in the service of the “Reds” when it comes to scoring a goal at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.
Salah has scored a brace in two of his last three appearances against Newcastle and provided an assist in the last meeting, which ended in a 2-0 win.
Consequently, I would select “First goal: Salah” at odds of around 3.75 in any decent sports betting app, as the first goal could also be the last.
However, I would not be surprised if it ended 1-1 going into extra time – in any case, it will not be too one-sided!
My Tip:
A close duel awaits us when Liverpool and Newcastle fight for the Carabao Cup. The Reds are slight favorites, but a clear victory is not to be expected.
A narrow victory by a goal difference would be most likely, but extra time after a 0-0 or 1-1 draw also seems possible. Newcastle will do everything they can to win their first title since 1955.
My Liverpool Newcastle betting tip: Under 3.5 goals.
