Conference League Playoffs, Thursday, 20.02.2025 at 6:45 PM
The new league mode has favored the first participation in a knockout phase of a European competition by Ljubljana and Banja Luka.
In the first leg, Banja Luka benefited from a red card for Ljubljana after 52 minutes and a lot of luck in the last minute of regular time to win 1-0.
For the second meeting, I expect a similar nail-biting game and few goals. I am placing my bet on Ljubljana Banja Luka at Merkur Bets at odds of 1.90 for “Banja Luka under 0.5 goals”.
Victor Sanchez began his playing career in the Real Madrid youth team. He made it into the first team, but played most of his matches for Deportivo La Coruna.
Sanchez is currently coaching the team from Ljubljana, with which he is at the top of the domestic league. The journey does not have to end at the international level either. The bookmakers favor the seven-time Slovenian champions with odds of up to around 1.67.
The playoff first leg was lost by the Smaji in the last second with 0:1, after the team had been playing for more than half an hour with a man down.
Borac Banja Luka failed to win in four of six matches in the league phase (2D, 2U, 2D). A guest win is not worth a Freebet to me, although the 6.00 win odds have been set quite high.
Banja Luka won the national championship in Bosnia-Herzegovina last year and are also in the running for the national title this season (2nd).
On the European stage, their performances this year looked much weaker. The red-and-blues have scored only five goals in their seven games so far.
Looking at the expected goals from the first leg (2.49 xG), I was amazed at the amount. However, this can be quickly put into the right context.
Until the red card, Banja Luka had almost not created any chances with more than 0.01 xG. The following comparison shows how much Mladen Zivizovic’s selection benefited from the extra man.
Overall, Banja Luka scored 5.8 expected goals in the previous seven Conference League encounters. 2.49 xG came from the playoff first leg, leaving only 3.31 xG for the other six fixtures.
Away from their own arena and without the great support of the local supporters, the guests rarely appeared in opposing penalty areas.
Banja Luka did not score in two of three Conference League guest appearances. In addition, Zizovic’s team only scored one goal in their three previous European competitive matches.
On the other hand, both teams have not been particularly weak defensively. Ljubljana and Banja Luka have only conceded seven goals each in seven Conference League games so far.
After the narrow opening defeat against Heidenheim (1-2), Ljubljana even won three consecutive matches without conceding a single goal.
The previous Conference League encounters between the two teams were usually low-scoring. Five of the seven matches involving the Slovenian hosts ended with fewer than three goals.
What’s more, both teams have finished five of seven games without either of the two participating clubs having scored a goal.
Shorter highlight videos than the last two Conference League appearances by these two debutants have hardly been made possible by any other team.
Both Ljubljana and Banja Luka recently took part in two games in which only one goal was scored in total.
I therefore recommend this NEO.bet bonus for odds of 2.80 on “Under 1.5 goals” in the game. It is quite conceivable that the home side will send the game into extra time with a 1-0 lead after 90 minutes.
The odds don’t necessarily suggest it, but with the result from the first leg, this tie is extremely exciting. Both teams are limited in offense and need optimal circumstances.
I couldn’t make out any particular scoring ability in any of the outfield players. Both teams have a shot conversion rate of under nine percent in the current competition so far.
My tendency is more towards the home side, who are individually a little stronger. My Ljubljana Banja Luka betting tip: Banja Luka under 0.5 goals
