Europa League, quarter-final, first leg, Thursday, 10/04/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Manchester United held their own against Real Sociedad in the last 16. I wrote you the predictions for the respective games and my bets were spot on. I now want to build on that with my Lyon Manchester United tip for the quarter-final first leg.
The Red Devils need to win the title if they want to play internationally next year. “Champions League or nothing” is the motto for the club that was once so used to success.
However, the upcoming opponent is tough, especially in offense, he has a lot to offer. At Oddset, I have snatched the goal of both teams for the first encounter on Thursday.
In the Manchester derby, it was only enough to draw 0-0 this time after the success in the first leg (2-1). There was no great joy in the stands at Old Trafford, because Ruben Amorim’s team were the better team and could have won again.
The fans were only disappointed because of the poor 0-0 derby draw, not because of the loss of points. With seven matchdays to go, the gap to the European Cup places can no longer be closed anyway.
At the same time, relegation has been avoided. The only thing that really matters now is the Europa League!
The bookmakers’ forecast
Because here one of the coveted Champions League tickets can still be secured. I’m a big fan of this rule introduction, so even the bigger clubs take the second-tier international competition more seriously.
The fact that the Europa League winner is allowed to compete in the Champions League a season later only came into effect for the 2014/15 season.
If the betting providers have anything to say about it, it will be a difficult task for Manchester away from home, they are expecting a close game! Lyon’s win rate (2.45) is only just below that of ManU (2.75). The draw is at 3.40.
And what about the “Who will progress” market? There, the difference is somewhat greater, with Manchester being assigned 1.53 and Lyon 2.37.
AI prediction Lyon vs. Manchester United: ChatGPT’s picks
What does the AI have in store for us? It takes the same path as me and, when it comes to the bet, sees that both teams score, only “low risk”. Of course, I didn’t tell the artificial intelligence beforehand which odds my heart was beating for.
But it’s always a good feeling when ChatGPT comes up with similar odds based on all the data. While I mainly have a 1:1 or a 2:1 for one of the teams on the screen, the AI is expecting a small festival of goals.
For the “medium risk tip”, it serves us the “over 3.5 goals”. But okay, Olympique have had a few high-scoring affairs recently and Manchester did Real Sociedad a favor in the last 16 second leg with a 4-1 win.
And the third quote in the AI alliance? Here she reaches into the high odds shelf and grabs the halftime/final score tip “X/X”. With a few expected goals, which would have to be distributed exactly the same for each half in this bet, I’m not thrilled with this suggestion.
Analysis: Lyon vs. Manchester United
The 0-0 draw against Manchester City is another in a series of inconsistent results. At least as far as defense is concerned, things are looking up for the Red Devils. In their last seven games, they have conceded just five goals.
Nevertheless, there were only two wins, a 4-1 win against Sociedad and a 3-0 win against the struggling Foxes. A 1X2 bet is definitely too hot for me in a United game at this stage, however high the individual odds are.
The “double chance X2” at odds of 1.50 is what appeals to me the most. You can get it at Winamax, among other places, where you get an outstanding new customer bonus and tax-free odds.
The first deposit up to €100 is doubled, and the extra money is credited to you in free bets. You can withdraw the winnings from the free bets directly. And the first deposit only needs to be wagered at 1.05.
Odds Analysis
Odds that are frequently selected are highlighted in the “Hot” category. These include, among others, Lyon’s victory, the “Double Chance 1X” and both teams scoring, and some combination players have grabbed the lower 1.24 odds for “Over 1.5 goals”.
The Winamax community is therefore backing the hosts, but we must not forget that Winamax is a French betting provider. Nevertheless, Olympique’s first-leg success would not exactly knock my socks off.
After all, the fifth-placed team in Ligue 1 is currently in good form and close to the Champions League places. They are just one point behind Strasbourg in fourth place and two points behind the direct Champions League places, and Marseille is also still within striking distance.
Lyon vs. Manchester United odds: Which over goal line is the best?
The “Over 1.5 goals” odds seem too meager to me, so I would instead clearly bet on both teams scoring. I can’t imagine a 2-0 or 3-0 result on Thursday, even with the best will in the world. At Lyon, seven of the last nine games have seen both teams score.
They have been particularly accurate themselves, winning six of their last seven matches, only conceding a 4-2 defeat to Strasbourg, but scoring twice in that game, and that was by no means an exception.
The seven-time French champions have pushed at least two balls over the line eleven times in a row. Since mid-October, there has only been one game without a home goal. Statistics that make the guests swallow hard.
Ultimately, however, the 0 doesn’t often hold up either. Manchester didn’t score against city rivals and Forest, but they had some top opportunities in both games and, besides, these clubs are of a different caliber than Lyon.
In terms of over/under goals, I’m therefore clearly leaning towards “Over 2.5” for a strong 1.80, but I would immediately add both teams scoring for odds above the 2.00 mark.
Cristiano Ronaldo decided the last duel
A 1-1 and 4-1 against Real Sociedad were the only knockout phase matches for the Red Devils so far, who went straight into the last 16 as third-place finishers and without a defeat. Lyon were not much worse, collecting only three fewer points.
The French team faced Steaua Bucharest before, managed to lay the foundation for their success with a 3-1 win in Romania and then put on a gala performance in front of their own fans: 4-0.
These are not two harmless attacking units facing each other, at least not in terms of Europa League numbers. On average, Manchester and Lyon have created the most shots on goal. Only the eliminated Club Galatasaray surpasses this figure.
And have they clashed in previous duels? Partly, partly. They faced each other for the first time in the 2004/2005 Champions League. We saw a 2-2 draw and then a 2-1 victory for United at Old Trafford in the group stage.
In 2007/2008, they met again in the Champions League, with the eventual winners, Manchester, prevailing. A certain Cristiano Ronaldo decided the tie in the second leg. 2:1 was the final result after the two games.
After that, we only saw one more in the context of a test in the summer break of 2023. That doesn’t count in the statistics, but Manchester was able to win again. Lyon is therefore still waiting for their first win.
Lyon – Manchester United tip
For both teams, who once dominated their domestic leagues, the Europa League is the last chance for a title. For Manchester United, it is about much more than that, namely qualifying for the 2025/26 international competition.
We have already seen committed Red Devils against Real Sociedad, who have been able to stabilize themselves, especially defensively, but now face an opponent who has scored at least two goals in eleven consecutive games and has only failed to score at home once since October.
At the same time, Lyon are looking shaky at the back. With the teams with the second and third most shots on target per Europa League game facing each other, I’m going for the following odds.
My Lyon Manchester United prediction: Both Teams to Score!
