With Magdeburg’s promotion, a former GDR giant could get into the Bundesliga in the upcoming season!
The longing at FCM is huge to finally be back in a top division. The last time this was the case for 1. FC Magdeburg was in 1991 in the former East German Oberliga. After German reunification, Magdeburg played mainly at the amateur level until 2015.
What are the arguments in favor of Magdeburg’s promotion to the Bundesliga in 2025? Or why is it not (yet) possible this year to move up to the top tier of German football?
Why Magdeburg will be promoted in 2025
Will 1. FC Magdeburg be in the Bundesliga in the new season? The chance is there – especially if you look at the promoted teams in recent years.
In recent years, teams have repeatedly been promoted that were basically NOT among the top favorites for promotion to the Bundesliga. In the 2023/24 season, St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel were promoted, and the year before, 1. FC Heidenheim managed this somewhat surprisingly.
This trio managed to get into the Bundesliga with basic virtues such as commitment, passion and willpower. This could also enable FC Magdeburg to be promoted in 2025.
Another argument for Magdeburg’s promotion to the Bundesliga: their away form.
The FCM has been very strong away from home this season so far! After 26 match days, 1. FC Magdeburg is the best away team in the 2nd Bundesliga.
Of 13 away games, nine were won. In addition, there were two draws. This means that the FCM has only lost two away games at this point. In addition, they have scored 34 goals in the previous 13 away games. Interestingly, the second-most away goals at this point are from relegation candidates Hertha BSC, with 25.
If their away form continues until the end of the season, there is a lot to be said for FCM in Magdeburg’s Bundesliga promotion prospects.
FCM promotion prospects: No, it’s not working (yet)
However, there are still some arguments in favor of FC Magdeburg not making it into the Bundesliga in the FCM promotion prospects.
In the market value table of the 18 second division teams, FCM is only in 14th place. That means that 13 teams are nominally stronger than the East Germans. These include, among others, the favorites for promotion, Hamburger SV, 1. FC Cologne and also 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
But the truth is that Hertha BSC, the team with the second-largest squad market value, is stuck in the lower third of the table and fighting against relegation.
What is in the Magdeburg promotion forecast a second argument against the FCM: the home weakness.
After 26 match days, 1. FC Magdeburg have played 13 home games so far – but in the home table, the East Germans can only be found in 16th place at this point in time (!). The FCM have only won two of their 13 home games. A disastrous statistic that makes Magdeburg’s promotion almost impossible.
1. FC Magdeburg is exactly the opposite at home than it is away. The discrepancy is huge. After 26 matchdays, they have only 13 points from 13 home games, but 29 points from 13 away games.
In the past five seasons, an average of 64 points were needed for the second direct promotion place. For the third place and the promotion play-offs, an average of 61 points were needed.
The last team to reach the Bundesliga from this all-important and dreaded third place in the table was Union Berlin in the 2018/19 season. However, this also means that the Bundesliga club has won the last five relegation duels.
So, if they want to be in the Bundesliga for the first time, the FCM would be well advised to aim for a direct promotion place. But to do that, home wins would be extremely important…
