Bundesliga matchday 21, Saturday, 08.02.2025 at 15:30
Two of the most unpleasant teams in the German top flight will duel in the Mewa Arena on matchday 21. Mainz (6th) will host Augsburg (12th). The 05ers are considered the favorites in the run-up to the match, but will probably have to do without some important players.
Stefan Bell is currently suffering from a muscle injury and will have to miss out, as will the suspended Anthony Caci. There is also a question mark over Nadiem Amiri’s fitness, which will be clarified on Friday.
The visitors return to Bundesliga action after a narrow 1-0 defeat in the DFB Cup against VfB Stuttgart. Things have been going pretty well for the Fuggerstädter in league competition of late, who have not tasted defeat in four league games.
Both teams have defended their goal excellently from opposition attacks of late and have had greater success with a relatively man-oriented approach.
While 05 have been one of the positive surprises throughout the season, FCA have recently turned things around, which has led to better results.
I expect a tight game that will feature some tough duels, but will end with “under 2.5 goals”. I’m giving my Mainz Augsburg betting tip at NEO.bet at odds of 1.78.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
In the odds comparison of the oddsmakers, there is great agreement on FSV Mainz 05 being the favorites. The home side only has odds of around 1.80 for a home win. You can get a little more with an odds boost.
You can do without this if your goal is an “Augsburg win”. The Fuggerstädter have recently proved to be tough opponents who have not been beaten for four matchdays. An away win generates the radiance of 5.00 odds.
KI prediction Mainz vs Augsburg: ChatGPT
Chat GPT goes along with the bookmakers and recommends a classic “Mainz win” as the first option, which you can play at Tipwin for odds of 1.80.
Until then, I can still understand the view of the artificial intelligence, but “Both teams score” would be the wrong 50/50 variant for me. Contrary to the AI prediction, I would tend towards “BTS: No”. No matter which option you choose, Bet365 has odds of 1.87 in both cases.
The variant with the highest risk appeals to me even less. “Draw & Over 1.5 goals”, you can get at Interwetten for odds of 4.60. In the 18 previous Bundesliga duels between Mainz and Augsburg, however, you won’t find a single draw.
Analysis: Mainz vs Augsburg
Meetings with FC Augsburg have become something of a feast for the 05ers in the German top flight. Mainz have beaten no other Bundesliga club more often than FCA (9 wins) and also won the first-half clash (3-2).
31 points from 20 matchdays represent the home side’s second-best Bundesliga season – only under Thomas Tuchel did FSV have more points at this point in the 2010/11 season (36).
European competition is a realistic goal this season (currently 6th), but has recently come under threat again after three defeats in four Bundesliga matches.
Augsburg had to overcome a serious crisis just a few weeks ago. Between December 7 and January 12, the Fuggerstädter went four Bundesliga games in a row without a win and lost three matches in a row after a 2:2 draw against Frankfurt.
The visitors have recently put a stop to this negative spiral, taking ten out of a possible twelve points from their four previous appearances in the German top flight. The turnaround was initiated by a massive improvement in the back line, which has conceded just two goals in four league games of late.
Odds Analysis
If the 05ers and the Fuggerstädter want to score points in the Bundesliga, they will have to push themselves to their absolute limits in every match. The basis for success is a high level of willingness to work against the ball on both sides.
Mainz have held their opponents to a maximum of one goal in six of their last seven Bundesliga matches. However, Mainz have recently conceded three defeats in four games and scored a maximum of one goal in each.
Augsburg have conceded just two goals in their four previous Bundesliga matches and have kept a clean sheet in two of their last three appearances. “Both teams to score: No” is available from the German bookmakers at odds of 1.84 and is an interesting alternative to my Mainz Augsburg betting tip.
Mainz vs. Augsburg: Full commitment
Bo Henriksen is an inexhaustible source of energy that can feed an entire team. At Mainz, however, the Dane proved that he has many more qualities than just being a motivator.
Last year, the 49-year-old saved the 05ers from relegation – this year, international business could be on the cards. His intensive coaching style has been transferred to the team and his tactical tricks suit the players perfectly.
Mainz are loud, Mainz have a good grip and no player is too good for an intense duel. No other Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals than the 05ers (12). A total of 23 goals conceded is still enough to make them the third-best defense in the German top flight.
The only cause for concern were the opponents’ set-pieces (11 goals conceded), of which there were plenty with the third most fouls (246).
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Grenzgänger
Fouls, however, are not rarely committed by the Fuggerstädter. With the exception of Wolfsburg (55), no team has picked up more cards than FCA (54) in the 20 matchdays played so far.
Like Mainz (4 set-piece goals), the visitors do little with their own resting balls (5 set-piece goals). FSV are unlikely to pose a major threat from these actions.
However, the home side must worry about their own attack. Augsburg have hardly conceded any goals in recent weeks, finishing two of their three previous visits with a clean sheet and conceding a maximum of one goal in five consecutive Bundesliga games.
Both teams have conceded a maximum of one goal in three of their previous six Bundesliga meetings and are therefore real minimalists.
Mainz have lost three of their last four games, but have conceded all three defeats away from home. At home, the 05ers are floating on a cloud of five wins in a row.
However, Augsburg have been pretty impressive away from home themselves and have not lost in three Bundesliga away games (2S, 1U).
The limitations of the Fuggerstädter’s attacking play only recently became apparent in the DFB Cup match against Stuttgart (0:1). Although FCA defended with self-sacrifice, they created very few useful actions themselves.
Meanwhile, no team in the Bundesliga has scored fewer expected goals than Augsburg (20.77 xG).
My Mainz Augsburg tip:
Mainz have already gone six matches this season without conceding a goal. I can well imagine a seventh clean sheet against the team with the lowest xG value.
Only two teams (Kiel, RB Leipzig) have conceded fewer shots than FC Augsburg this season (227).
However, the 05ers have not exactly been dangerous in front of the opponent’s box themselves recently and a total of 238 shots are not necessarily a presentable yield (12th).
My Mainz Augsburg tip: Under 2.5 goals
