1st FSV Mainz – 1st FC Cologne betting tip
In the final spurt of the 2023/24 season, only one decision has been made in the Bundesliga basement so far: SV Darmstadt must accept direct relegation. Relegation could also be confirmed in purely mathematical terms as early as next weekend.
Behind them, 1. FC Köln is the biggest contender for the second direct ticket to the lower house. If the Billy Goats still want to have a chance of remaining in the first division, they must score points on matchday 31.
EffZeh will visit Mainz on Sunday for a clash between the two carnival clubs. After matchday 21, Cologne still had a four-point lead over the Rheinhessen side. Now, they are five points behind the relegation places and the safety of the drop zone
The Nullfünfer, on the other hand, moved out of the relegation places for the first time since the end of matchday 2 with a 1-1 draw at Freiburg. History does not give Cologne much hope.
Such a large deficit has never been made up on the last four matchdays of a Bundesliga season since the reintroduction of relegation matches (2008/09). According to Opta data, the probability of direct relegation for the EffZeh is 81.7 percent.
In contrast, the probability that FSV will be directly relegated is 66.1%. For my Mainz Köln betting tip at odds of 1.73 with provider Interwetten, I opt for the bet “Mainz win & over 1.5 goals.”
The forecast of the betting providers?
Until a few weeks ago, the bookmakers’ assessment of the Mainz Cologne forecast would have been very different and would have tended to side with the Billy Goats.
However, due to the different form curves, the home side are now the clear favorites with the best bookmakers, who also provide their customers with the best sports betting apps.
For example, you can get odds of just 1.55 for a Mainz win at bookmakers such as Betway. On the other hand, a three-pointer by the visitors is classified as a small surprise and rewarded with six times the betting stake.
If you are still afraid of taking a risk in this pairing or want to get even more out of your bet, you should take advantage of a sports betting bonus or a free bet.
Analysis: Mainz vs Cologne
In Mainz, they simply have good experience with coaches whose first name is “Bo”. After Bo Svensson had already celebrated many successes with the Rheinhessen, things are now also going well under Bo Henriksen.
Especially at home, the Nullfünfer are a force under the new man. FSV have picked up 13 out of 15 points in their five home games in the Bundesliga under the Dane. That is the league best in this period.
In the ten home games of the season under Jan Siewert and Bo Svensson, Mainz had collected just six points. The team has been unbeaten in five games (3S, 2U).
The eleven points on these matchdays are only surpassed in the league by Leverkusen and Leipzig (13 each). In last weekend’s 1:1 draw in Freiburg, the 05 coach left the starting eleven unchanged for the third time in a row
One success factor is the new stability in defense. Over the past five matchdays, 05 have conceded a total of two goals. No other first division team has bettered that.
On the other side of the ball, new winter signing Nadiem Amiri has been a hit. The loanee from Leverkusen provided the most assists (37) within the club and has also been on the ball the most times over the season (73 times on average).
Thanks to the great run of success, the Rheinhessen have left the relegation zone. However, they only avoided the relegation zone thanks to their better goal difference. The home side will be without Jae-Sung Lee and Tom Krauß, who are both suspended.
The injured Bell, Leitsch and Ngankam are also missing. It is still unclear whether Hanche-Olsen will be able to play.
Quota analysis
As already mentioned, the bookmakers are clearly on the side of the home side in the Mainz Köln preview. This also has an impact on the other betting markets besides the classic three-way bet.
If you look at the last five matchdays, the Nullfünfer have the best defense in the Bundesliga. A one-nil win for Rheinhessen is therefore a good alternative.
You can get odds of 2.50 for this at Admiralbet, which is of course even easier to place in conjunction with an Admiralbet free bet.
Cologne have conceded 35 out of 53 goals in the second half this season. If this streak continues and more goals are scored after the break on Sunday, Merkur Bets will offer odds of 2.10.
New customers should not miss out on the Merkur Bets bonus before placing their first bet with the provider
Has the EffZeh backed the wrong horse?
When those responsible at 1. FC Köln decided to appoint Timo Schultz as their new coach at the beginning of the year, the appointment caused a few surprises.
The young coach is neither a firebrand nor does he have any Bundesliga experience. Schultz was also unable to cause a jolt in the team. Many important regular players remained in a slump.
The points average barely improved from 0.6 to 0.9. The club experienced a particularly bitter moment last weekend. In the home match against Darmstadt, who were bottom of the league, points were actually firmly on the agenda.
Instead, EffZeh were disheartened, slow and predictable. In the end, they suffered a deserved 2-0 defeat. This leaves the Billy Goats on four wins for the season
The EffZeh are struggling at the back and front
The club had never had fewer successes on its record at this point. The Domstädter have also only won one of their last ten Bundesliga matches (4U, 5N).
Coach Schultz’s team are still waiting for their first away three-pointer this calendar year. In fact, they have not won any of their last eight away games in the Bundesliga (5U, 3N).
Cologne have conceded eleven goals in the last five matchdays. Only Darmstadt (12) and Hoffenheim (13) have had to clear the ball out of their own net more often in the league.
In addition, the EffZeh has the weakest offense (23) and also the weakest chance conversion (9%). After all, the Billy Goats conceded five of their six defeats under Schultz at home. Away from home, they only lost at Bayern.
The two carnival clubs have faced each other 37 times on the pitch in competitive matches. Their record is completely even, with 13 wins each (11U).
Mainz have conceded just two defeats in their last eleven Bundesliga matches against Cologne and have come away victorious four times themselves, with five draws.
The 05ers have won eight of 12 first league games against the EffZeh at home. FSV have not scored as many points per home match in the Bundesliga as against the Geißböcke (2.2) against any team they have played at least ten times.
The first leg of the current season in Müngersdorf ended in a goalless draw.
My Mainz Cologne tip:
At the moment, it’s difficult to bet on the EffZeh. Especially because the Billy Goats are also visiting Mainz, who are currently in great form.
After a basic review of all the statistics, I can’t find any factors that speak in favor of Cologne winning a point. On the other hand, a home win for the Nullfünfer is much more likely.
Since Mainz’s last three home wins against Bochum (2:0), Darmstadt (4:0) and Hoffenheim (4:1) have always resulted in at least two goals, I’m optimizing my bet on a home win with a goal bet.
My Mainz Köln prediction is therefore: Win Mainz & Over 1.5 goals!
