Mainz – Cologne Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 1 on Sunday, 08/24/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
Cologne is not a team that has had good experiences on the first matchday of the Bundesliga. After all, the promoted team has lost 8 of its last 13 games of this kind!
The hosts have also failed to win any of their last 13 league games at home, which further complicates the situation for the “Geißböcke.” My Mainz Cologne prediction therefore leans slightly towards a home win.
However, I also trust our AI model – and it seems to be firmly convinced that this will be a high-scoring match!
What’s more, Mainz vs. Cologne is expected to see the most goals in the league on this opening matchday.
My Mainz vs. Cologne prediction: Over 2.5 goals!
Here are the reasons for my prediction:
- Our AI model predicts 3.23 goals!
- Last season, 88% of all FSV games ended with more than 1.5 goals!
- Four of Mainz’s last five first division games broke this mark!
Mainz still has the UECL return leg against Rosenborg in the back of their minds, but the 05ers should still be reliable, especially against a promoted team like Cologne.
Mainz is unbeaten against newcomers in six Bundesliga games (4 wins, 2 draws).
Their last defeat came in December 2023, when they lost 0-1 to Heidenheim. Football bets on a Mainz win and over 2.5 goals are definitely my focus this weekend.
Mainz – Cologne prediction & bets
I have two tips for you that can be combined wonderfully with the Interwetten bonus.
I like “Benedict Hollerbach to score” – especially at odds of around 2.75. The new signing scored the most Bundesliga goals for Union last season (9).
Another Mainz Cologne tip I can give you is obviously a win for the Nullfünfer, at odds of around 1.90. In my opinion, their strong home run won’t come to an end against a promoted team of all teams.
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Mainz vs. Cologne
- Mainz are unbeaten in 13 Bundesliga home games – their last defeat was in October 2024, when they lost 2-0 to RB Leipzig.
- As a promoted team, Cologne celebrated only one opening victory – in 2005/06, against Mainz of all teams.
- Both teams have scored in Mainz’s last five home games.
- Paul Nebel has scored 10 goals and provided 4 assists, with only Burkhardt (20 goal contributions) more directly involved in goals for Mainz.
Mainz – Cologne: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model has provided me with several suggestions for a successful Mainz Cologne tip, some of which I find very convincing.
“Mainz win with Asian HC -0.5” promises odds of 1.81 if successful and actually seems to have good prospects of success. The Bet365 app is a good place to go, as the bookie regularly offers this type of bet.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Mainz win |
Draw |
Cologne win |
| 64.9% |
17.5% |
17.5% |
The best odds for Mainz vs. Cologne
You can find the best Mainz Cologne odds at Interwetten, as a quick betting odds comparison reveals.
At the licensed bookmaker, you can expect odds of around 1.90 if Mainz wins and thus successfully continues its incredible home streak. There is definitely value to be had here.
A draw, on the other hand, promises betting odds of around 3.75 – and doesn’t seem impossible if Cologne plays as well as they did a few days ago in the DFB Cup against Regensburg (2-1).
Those whose hearts beat for the Billy Goats are offered odds of 4.10 on Cologne, which will quadruple their stake if their team prevails at the Mewa Arena.
I don’t believe it will happen, but there have definitely been crazier things in football.
Mainz vs Cologne match analysis:
Mainz starts the match against Cologne as the clear favorite, even if the trip to the Europa Conference League during the week may have taken its toll.
The Nullfünfer go into the game with the confidence of a strong preseason, in which their intensity against the ball stood out in particular.
Under Bo Henriksen, the team consistently focused on high defending: with 9.84 passes allowed per defensive action, Mainz was second only to Bayern in the league. This pressing is a trademark and is likely to be key again against Cologne.
The promoted team from Cologne, on the other hand, still has a lot to prove. In the second division, they often dominated possession, but in the Bundesliga it will be much more difficult to combine passes against an organized pressing game like Mainz’s.
Therefore, a more direct approach with long balls into space could be the better choice. Especially behind the high defensive line of the Rheinhessen, there could be spaces that Cologne will want to exploit.
However, their rivals found it difficult to outwit Mainz in this way last season – it’s no coincidence that Mainz conceded just 1.26 goals per game, the fourth-best record in the Bundesliga.
Mainz form check
Mainz has enjoyed a real upswing under Bo Hendriksen, climbing from 13th place to a European spot. However, the energy-sapping trip to Trondheim could take its toll and leave the team with tired legs at the start of the league season.
Although Mainz has been unbeaten in nine games across two seasons, the start to the competitive season has been anything but convincing: In the narrow 1-0 cup win against second division side Dresden, goalkeeper Zentner was the man of the match, practically securing the victory on his own.
In contrast, the offense was severely lacking, with new signing Hollerbach ineffective, barely getting into the penalty area and losing many challenges.
This could also be the problem against Cologne, as the Billy Goats have one of the best defenses in the league and showed last season how difficult they are to break down.
If Mainz doesn’t improve significantly in attack, the start of the season could quickly become a test of patience – and a low-scoring game is a distinct possibility.
Cologne form check
Cologne is back in the Bundesliga – after just one year in the second division. The Geißböcke dominated the 2nd division, and even a late change of coach couldn’t slow down their direct return to the top flight.
Under Friedhelm Funkel, the team seamlessly continued its stability. Particularly impressive: Cologne is unbeaten in nine games across two seasons, including a strong 4-0 win in a friendly against Atalanta, which should give them confidence for the start of the season.
Cologne also showed their class in their competitive game against Regensburg, allowing only seven shots on goal and keeping their opponents to a meager 0.41 xG. The goal they conceded was the result of a mistake by Timo Hübers, but such slip-ups are the exception for him.
New signing Ragnar Ache immediately caught the eye in attack – two assists in just 16 minutes speak for themselves. Following the departure of Damion Downs, he is likely to quickly become a key figure in the attack. Cologne looks well equipped for a successful start.
