Bundesliga Matchday 32, Sunday, 04.05.2025 at 19:30
It’s a bitter turn of events for Mainz, who have allowed themselves to be pushed out of the European places with one disappointing performance after another. Are the fans even in the mood for a good Mainz Frankfurt tip this weekend?
But now they have one last chance: a win against SGE could actually put them back in contention for 5th and 6th place.
But the “Eagles” from the financial metropolis are also under a lot of pressure, as they desperately need the points to secure their place in the Champions League. So it will be a decisive game in which both teams will have to give their all.
Mainz has the chance to turn things around, but Frankfurt knows how important this victory is for its own ambitions. Who will prevail?
The situation at FSV is really tense. With six games in a row without a win (3 draws, 3 defeats), they are on the slide and the pressure is mounting.
This run is particularly bitter because under Bo Henriksen they had never gone longer than three games without a win – the last time that happened was at the turn of 2023/2024.
Only VfL Wolfsburg has been waiting longer for a win in the league. Now, in their clash with Frankfurt, the 05ers must finally get back to winning ways if they still want to harbour hopes of a European place.
It won’t be an easy task, but their only realistic chance of moving up the table is if they finally pick up three points again.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The Mainz Frankfurt odds from betting providers with PayPal indicate an exciting match with a slight home advantage for Mainz. A home win is rewarded with an average of 2.45, which gives Mainz a good chance.
A draw is at 3.45, leaving room for a balanced game. An away win for Eintracht is rated at 2.95, which means that Frankfurt are not completely out of the running.
AI prediction Mainz vs Frankfurt: ChatGPT’s prediction
ChatGPT’s Mainz Frankfurt AI prediction doesn’t quite stand up to a reality check. In any case, I rejected almost all of the computer-generated suggestions!
For a risky soccer bet, I consider the suggestion “Frankfurt to win without conceding” to be a little too optimistic. Frankfurt is strong, but Mainz has shown often enough that they can be dangerous at home.
A goal from Mainz is entirely possible, so this tip seems too risky in my opinion.
The medium-risk tip – “Frankfurt to win” – is a much more realistic assessment. Nevertheless, I think a draw would be the better choice here, as Mainz looks more stable defensively and a draw is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Finally, “Over 2.5 goals” is recommended for a low risk, but here too I am going in a different direction. A 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 win for Frankfurt or Mainz would be more likely in my view than a goal fest. I therefore expect a hard-fought and rather low-scoring game.
Analysis: Mainz vs Frankfurt
Mainz remain in the race for Europe, but their ambitions have been hampered by a run of six Bundesliga games without a win (3 draws, 3 defeats).
The recent 0-3 defeat to Bayern Munich was their third defeat in a row in which they conceded at least two goals. Despite this dip in form, they start the matchday just one point behind sixth place.
Eintracht, on course for Champions League qualification, now presents a tough challenge. Frankfurt secured a four-point lead over fourth place with a 4-0 win over RB Leipzig.
The Hessians have lost only once in their last six games (4 wins, 1 draw) and are on the verge of finishing in the top three for the first time since 1992/93. That looks excellent at first glance, don’t you think?
So much for the current form of both opponents, but now I would like to answer the question of why the under 2.5 goals odds have been set so high.
The bookmakers tend to expect more than 2.5 goals in this match, and that has a lot to do with the impressive conversion rate of both teams.
Frankfurt has converted 45% of its big chances in this Bundesliga season, while FSV Mainz 05 is even slightly better with 46% – only Bayer Leverkusen surpasses this rate with 47%.
It is particularly striking that SGE created 102 big chances, more than any other team except FC Bayern (154), while Mainz had significantly fewer with 72.
This high efficiency in converting chances suggests that we can expect a few goals in this match – even if I remain of a different opinion in this regard.
Odds analysis
“Under 3.5 goals” at 1.55 – a solid value tip. Mainz and Frankfurt do not usually play in high-scoring games. Given the defensive stability of both teams, it is therefore very likely that there will be fewer than four goals on Sunday.
A “1:1 result bet” at 7.30, on the other hand, is something for the more daring among you. A draw could very well happen given the balanced forces in this derby.
The last two home games between Mainz and Frankfurt ended with exactly this result anyway – an exciting and lucrative bet!
Mainz vs. Frankfurt: The epitome of a bogey team?
FSV Mainz 05 has established itself as a clear bogey team against Eintracht Frankfurt.
In 16 Bundesliga home games against SGE, the Rheinhessen have only suffered one defeat – and that was a long time ago: on January 9, 2021, under coach Bo Svensson.
This impressive home record poses a major challenge for Eintracht. SGE has a lower win rate against Mainz than against any other current Bundesliga opponent (only 6%).
This speaks for Mainz’s strong home form and the challenge that Frankfurt regularly faces against this opponent.
Even when Eintracht is in good form, Mainz seems to be a real stumbling block for the Hessians. This is a challenge that should not be underestimated in this match.
Is that why the bookmakers with Apple Pay have made Mainz the favorites?
Mainz usually twice as strong at home!
The home advantage at the MEWA Arena plays a decisive role for FSV Mainz 05, and the figures back this up impressively.
With a run of 11 unbeaten Bundesliga home games (6 wins, 5 draws), Mainz not only has the longest current streak of any Bundesliga club, but also equals the club’s own record, which was last achieved under Thomas Tuchel from August 2009 to February 2010.
This clearly suggests that Mainz could well achieve a useful result against Eintracht on home turf.
Eintracht Frankfurt, on the other hand, has struggled away from home in the second half of the Bundesliga season in terms of points.
They have won only one of their last six away games (3 draws, 2 defeats), and that was a 3-1 victory against VfL Bochum in mid-March.
Particularly worrying is the fact that SGE have failed to score in their last two away games, which is the first time this has happened since March to May 2022 – when they failed to score in three consecutive away games!
My Mainz Frankfurt tip:
Mainz may be in freefall at the moment, but I expect them to give everything against Frankfurt. The Rheinhessen will defend themselves against the strong visitors from Frankfurt and do their best to keep their opponents away from their own penalty area.
Despite the difficulties in recent games, Mainz could defend a 1-1 draw with a solid defense and a lot of fighting spirit, which would at least keep their hopes of European qualification alive.
My Mainz Frankfurt tip: Double chance 1X & Under 4.5 goals.
