Bundesliga Matchday 8, Friday, 25.10.2024 at 20:30
On matchday 8 of the Bundesliga, FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will face off in a game that will point the way ahead. A landmark match for both Mainz 05 and the Fohlen team.
While the winner can move into the top half of the table, the loser will have to look back – at least in the medium term.
Accordingly, my Mainz Gladbach betting tip is based on the assumption that an extremely intense Friday match will develop in which things will get comparatively rough.
FSV’s most recent encounters provide an indication of this. There have been five red cards in the last five Mainz games.
However, the main reason why I have chosen the bet “Double Chance X2” (1.65 @Betano) has to do primarily with the blatant weakness of the 05ers at home.
In the course of my Mainz Gladbach prediction, I will cite numerous statistics that speak more for Mainz’s problems than for a truly brilliant performance by Gladbach Borussia.
It’s no coincidence that BMG are just one point ahead of FSV ahead of the eighth matchday.
In short, the match between Mainz and Gladbach is unlikely to be one of the highlights of the Bundesliga weekend, but it does offer enough potential to make it a promising betting tip.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
Mainz are playing at home. Mainz is the favorite. So far, so understandable.
However, even the simple 1×2 odds from established bookmakers such as Happybet Sportwetten reveal a barely veiled subtext.
The odds for an FSV win rise to an average of 2.30. A Gladbach win is listed at around 3.00, only slightly higher. Accordingly, the value for a draw is only 3.60.
And, yes: If I had to decide on a 1×2 bet, I would actually bet on a draw. Is a 1-1 draw between Mainz and Gladbach an unrealistic scenario under the current circumstances?
KI prediction Mainz vs Gladbach: This is what ChatGPT
ChatGPT and I are betting on, we just can’t get on the same page. Almost every time I ask the AI for suggestions, the old tinpot leaves me in despair.
So you also have to take a closer look at the Mainz Gladbach AI prediction. ChatGPT recommends the bet “Mainz win to zero” as a high-risk tip.
Considering that Mainz have not even scored a goal in two of their last three games, this is rather risky. Too risky for me
At medium risk, the AI calls the bet “Over 1.5 goals in the first half”. In the last two Mainz games, this bet would have been correct.
Ultimately, however, I wouldn’t really be surprised by a 0:0 at the break in Mainz v Gladbach. However, I don’t want to reject this tip suggestion.
The AI describes the bet “Both teams to score” as a low-risk bet. A piquant fact: In FSV’s last three games, this bet would not have been successful. So I can’t hide a fundamental skepticism about this betting suggestion either.
Analysis: Mainz vs Gladbach
Four points ahead of the relegation places. Five points behind the first European Cup place.
Yes, FSV Mainz are currently in mid-table and it’s no coincidence that they have an almost even goal difference (11:12). Offensively, not much is coming together, especially at home.
After four home games, the 05ers have scored just two goals.
The bet “Under 1.5 Mainz goals” for the game against Gladbach is therefore definitely an option for me. The odds are around 1.90 and are therefore in the range of a value bet.
The truth is, however, that Borussia are not in top form either. Gladbach have lost three of their last five Bundesliga games.
Most recently, they struggled to a 3:2 win against 1. FC Heidenheim. The Foals’ inconsistency in defense is particularly noticeable.
In the last five competitive matches, they have only kept a clean sheet in the 1-0 win against Union Berlin.
As a risk variant of my main betting tip, you could therefore target the bet “Double chance X2 & Both teams to score”. The odds for this are a solid 2.40.
Odds Analysis
I was a little surprised that Bet365 expects a rather high-scoring duel between FSV Mainz and Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The odds for “Over 2.5 goals” are a low 1.60. FSV’s two home goals so far and Gladbach’s three away goals actually speak against it.
In general, bets that predict a close match are in the foreground for me. The “draw at half-time” is therefore a suitable choice for me.
The odds for this are 2.30. You can also take a look at the result bets. There I would like to concentrate on the 1:1. With odds of 7.50, this draw is not by chance the most likely result from a bookmaker’s point of view.
Mainz vs Gladbach odds: Mainz can’t cope at home!
Central to the selection of my main betting tip is without question FSV Mainz’s home problems. Of the first four home games, the 05ers were unable to win a single one.
In fact, they are one of the weakest teams at home in the current Bundesliga season with just one point.
The last two home defeats against Leipzig and Heidenheim even came without scoring a goal (both 0:2).
Gladbach, meanwhile, have already won one away game this season. In Bochum, Borussia managed a 2-0 win.
A draw with an announcement?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the edge in the direct comparison. After 44 matches, Gladbach have 18 wins, 14 draws and twelve victories for FSV.
Last season, however, the two teams met on equal terms. They drew 2-2 in Gladbach in the first half of the season and 1-1 in Mainz in the second half.
If you look a little further back in time, it becomes clear that Borussia have recently had noticeable problems with the 05ers.
Gladbach have not won the last seven Bundesliga duels with Mainz.
BMG’s last victory dates back to the 2020/21 season. Back then, the Foals won 3:2 in Mainz.
Strikingly, exactly one goal has been scored before the break in four of the last six duels. If this is also the case on Friday, great odds of around 2.65 are due.
Mainz’s home record against Gladbach, however, is extremely mixed.
With seven wins, seven draws and eight defeats, they have not really been able to benefit from the nominal home advantage in the past.
Fittingly: FSV have won just one of Mainz’s last eight home games against Gladbach. The argument for the “double chance X2” could hardly be more convincing from this point of view.
My Mainz Gladbach tip:
No, I don’t expect a treat between FSV Mainz and Borussia Mönchengladbach. Mainz are extremely weak at home, while Gladbach generally fall short of expectations.
Accordingly, I expect Friday evening to be a tense game in which the midfield will be a real battle.
As FSV have yet to win at home, there is a good chance that Borussia will also take home at least one point.
This is my Mainz Gladbach betting tip: The Gladbach team will not leave the pitch as losers
