Mainz – Leipzig Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 3 on Saturday, 09/13/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
It’s not exactly child’s play to make a promising Mainz Leipzig tip here and thus bring the Bet-at-home welcome bonus a big step closer to payout maturity.
Nevertheless, the away win odds of 2.55 are simply too high not to circle a “two” on your betting slip for this match.
But before you stone me: Yes, I know RBL has had a difficult few months, but they have bounced back amazingly well after their 0-6 defeat against the record champions, don’t you think?
In fact, Werner’s team generated 19 attempts against Heidenheim before the international break, 5 of which were even rated as big chances!
Why this tip?
- The odds for a Leipzig win are high
- RBL played much better again against Heidenheim
- Mainz has been waiting for a win for six Bundesliga home games
Incidentally, I can understand why the Mainz Leipzig odds for an away win have been set comparatively high in every good betting app.
Mainz has won five of its last nine Bundesliga matches against RB Leipzig (2 draws, 2 losses) – previously, the Rheinhessen had only won once in their first nine direct encounters.
Mainz – Leipzig prediction & bets
Conrad Harder scoring on his debut for RBL is a promising Mainz Leipzig tip that I am willing to take a chance on. Especially since the average goal ratio of 2.55 is quite impressive.
The Danish newcomer also contributed to 10 goals (5 goals, 5 assists) in just 738 minutes of play for Sporting in the 2024/25 season in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.
I would also add both teams to score at 1.50 to my personal betting slip. If only because FSV has now been waiting in vain for a clean sheet for 13 Bundesliga games in a row.
What you need to consider when betting on Mainz vs. Leipzig
- Mainz has the second-worst xG value in the league after two games with -2.9 – only one goal came from 36 shots.
- Leipzig dominated Heidenheim with 65% possession and 1.21 more xG than their opponents.
- Previous games in Mainz have been high-scoring: between 2017 and 2021, 24 goals were scored in five games (average of 4.8).
- Nadiem Amiri has played 55 passes into the final third so far and is just behind Bayern’s new signing Michael Olise (45).
Mainz – Leipzig: AI tip & odds analysis
I can’t simply dismiss the Mainz Leipzig tip from our AI model for daring sports betting fans as nonsense. After all, I myself believe in a possible victory for the Saxons.
Half-time/full-time 2/2 is, of course, a slightly more aggressive version of my own suggestion, but the high risk is offset by a high payout. After all, the Leipzig odds for this offer are around a 4x profit factor if successful.
If one of the two halves wins: RB Leipzig at odds of around 1.70 is also a reasonable suggestion, which I certainly don’t dismiss out of hand. After all, FSV, once so strong at home, has now been waiting for a win for six Bundesliga home games.
However, I would ultimately reject under 3.5 goals at Mainz Leipzig odds of around 1.52. I would have liked to see a higher value for this selection.
The best odds for Mainz vs. Leipzig
Mainz welcomes RB Leipzig – and the bookmakers agree: this could be a really close game.
At Bet365, Merkur Bets, and Winamax Germany, the odds are close together: 2.70 for Mainz, 3.70 for a draw, and 2.55 for an away win for Leipzig. It’s not a clear picture – anything is possible here.
It is precisely the almost even Mainz Leipzig betting odds that make it so appealing – value seekers could get their money’s worth here.
So whether you trust in the home strength of the Nullfünfer or prefer the quality of Leipzig, these figures provide the perfect playground.
Mainz vs Leipzig match analysis:
Mainz and Leipzig both embody typical Bundesliga soccer: intense counter-pressing, quick transitions, and high tempo. This promises a game with plenty of scoring chances and exciting scenes at both ends.
Last year’s encounters were spectacular. There were 28 shots on goal in each of the two matches, but Mainz had more possession.
So be prepared for the ball to be played vertically into the box more often than across the field on both sides on Saturday.
Both teams press high up the pitch, which opens up space for direct balls behind the defense. Thanks to the speed in both attacking lines, this can be extremely dangerous.
Given the league table, the pressure is high: Leipzig needs the points to climb towards Europe, while Mainz could even end up in the relegation zone if they lose.
Mainz form check
Mainz impressed last season with strong performances both in attack and defense. Bo Henriksen’s principles, which enabled the success in 2024/25, remain unchanged.
Nevertheless, Mainz is still waiting for its first Bundesliga win. Before the international break, a penalty from Nadiem Amiri in the 89th minute was enough to secure a 1-1 draw in Wolfsburg.
However, the data clearly shows that Mainz should have taken all three points.
In fact, Henriksen’s team won the expected goals duel in both league games, so there is no reason to panic. Nevertheless, the coach will want to see results.
Nadiem Amiri has been particularly outstanding so far, securing qualification for the Conference League group stage with two goals and an assist against Rosenborg. His role will be all the more important now that new signing Benedict Hollerbach is out with injury.
Leipzig form check
It was a summer of upheaval at RB Leipzig. After a disappointing season in which Marco Rose was dismissed in March, Ole Werner took over the reins.
Key players such as Benjamin Sesko, Xavi Simons, and Lois Openda left the club, but the proceeds were reinvested directly in new signings.
With one win and one defeat to their name after three matchdays, it is difficult to assess where Leipzig currently stand.
On the first weekend, they suffered a bitter 6-0 defeat at FC Bayern, but anyone can get crushed by Munich. Before the international break, they followed up with a confident 2-0 win against relegation candidates Heidenheim.
Werner’s team dominated with 65% possession and a clear xG plus of 1.21. Romulo is the hope for the offense: the Brazilian, who came from Göztepe, scored his first Bundesliga goal before the break.
Christoph Baumgartner also performed strongly in the number 10 role – it remains to be seen whether he can claim this position permanently after Simons’ departure.
