Bundesliga 7th matchday, Saturday, 19/10/2024 at 3:30 pm
Jonathan Burkhard had absolutely earned his nomination for the national team after scoring five goals in six league games. However, “Johnny” could come away empty-handed on the next matchday.
After two home defeats in a row, the 05ers host the current second-placed team, RB Leipzig. The Red Bulls are still unbeaten this season (4W, 2D).
But I don’t dare to make a win bet on the Mainz RB Leipzig tip. During the two previous seasons, the Saxons did not score a single goal against FSV (2U, 2N).
Marco Rose lets his team play in the age-old 4-4-2 system. In particular, the defensive processes of this formation are usually easy and effective to implement.
So far, the guests have felt comfortable in this formation and have conceded the fewest goals in the German top flight (2).
That’s why I’m surprised that I came across a gigantic odds of 2.30 for “Both teams score: No” for my Mainz RB Leipzig tip at Happybet.
The betting providers’ prediction?
So far, FSV can be satisfied with their points tally. Mainz have only lost two of six matches, but both of those were at home.
At least a home win for Mainz plays only a minor role in the betting providers’ considerations and is priced at odds of up to 4.30.
The Red Bulls grabbed the full points in the last two rounds against Augsburg (4-0) and Heidenheim (1-0) and thus moved up to second place in the table.
Providing the first pursuer of Bayern with a win rate of over 1.85 in the event of a possible relegation candidate certainly encourages some to use the Bet-at-Home voucher for a “RB Leipzig win”.
KI prediction Mainz vs RB Leipzig: That’s what ChatGPT tips
My analysis of this pairing differs in some key points from the AI prediction. However, Chat-GPT agrees with the bookmakers that “Both teams score” is not too much of a betting risk. ODDSET, for example, only gives odds of 1.58. I vehemently disagree, as will be discussed in more detail below.
If you trust the general view that RBL are the favorites, the medium-risk chat GPT bet is also questionable. “Over 1.5 goals in the first half” can be found at Bet-at-Home at odds of 2.35. However, the Red Bulls have only scored three of their nine goals this season before half-time.
The last AI prediction involves the highest risk, but in my opinion it would be the most attractive of these three options. “Mainz to win” is available for odds of 4.10, including the Bet365 betting bonus.
Interesting fact: the 05ers have recently managed four wins from seven Bundesliga duels against the Saxons.
The visitors are currently scoring above their abilities, which has seen them rise to second place in the table. There is enough individual quality up front, but nine goals scored this season is the lowest in the top half of the table (excluding Union Berlin).
So, for our Mainz RB Leipzig betting tip, it’s better to say goodbye to the idea of a goal-filled encounter and go to the betting providers without taxes on odds of around 2.25 for “Under 2.5 goals” in the game.
This is supported by the fact that on average only 2.33 goals have been scored per home game by the 05ers and Leipzig have scored seven of nine goals this season in just two match days.
Ratings analysis
I have already put the mentioned variants “Under 2.5 goals” and “RB Leipzig win” on the slip of paper.
In addition to these options, however, there are further envelopes in the letterbox of value bets. Above all, “Mainz Under 0.5 goals” offers the chance of triple the profit.
So far, the home side have only scored two goals in three home games. Leipzig are in invincible form and have not conceded a goal in 405 minutes.
On the other hand, there is a highly risky but justifiable bet on “RB Leipzig Under 0.5 goals” up for debate.
The Red Bulls have not scored in three of their last four duels against FSV!
Peter Gulacsi is 34 years old, but still flies like an eagle between the posts and guards the goal of the Red Bulls in a spectacular way.
RB Leipzig also has a very good defense (4th) and has only allowed 7.32 expected goals. Without the goalkeeper, however, this would not have been possible at all.
No other goalkeeper in the German top flight stops opponents’ shots at a higher rate than Gulacsi (92 percent). The second-best keeper, Kaua of SGE, stops 77.8 percent of shots.
The combination of good defense and brilliant goalkeeping makes RBL the best defense after six match days (2 goals conceded). The Saxons have never conceded fewer at this point in the season.
Jonathan Burkhardt, and then?
New national team player Jonathan Burkhardt is the life insurance of Mainz in this still young season. The attacker scored five of the eleven goals for the 05ers.
Burkhardt headed three of his five goals into the net – the best in the league. As a team, Mainz has already scored five headed goals – also the best in the league.
Apart from the in-form center forward, the M05 offense is alarmingly ineffective. Mainz only collected 7.34 xG (15th minute), took the fewest shots (61) and had the fewest touches in the opposing penalty area (98).
RBL is well prepared for defending in the air. Leipzig is one of four teams not to have conceded a single goal from a header.
I can’t really imagine how the home side plan to score against the league’s best defense…
Thanks to him, Leipzig have now gone 17 Bundesliga games unbeaten, setting a new club record for Marco Rose and his team.
If the weak record against Mainz continues, this period could end. Leipzig had to settle for one point from their last four trips to the Mewa Arena.
My Mainz RB Leipzig tip:
I expect a low-scoring game in which RB Leipzig, thanks to their higher individual class, may only need one goal to win.
But maybe the Red Bulls won’t score at all. The visitors scored seven of their nine goals this season against Augsburg (4-0) and Leverkusen (3-2), leaving just two goals for the four remaining fixtures.
At the same time, Peter Gulacsi is in top form and the Red Bulls’ defense is fantastic, having conceded just two goals.
My Mainz RB Leipzig betting tip: Both teams to score: No!
