Bundesliga matchday 23, Saturday, 22.02.2025 at 15:30
Don’t lose your nerve now! FC St. Pauli are worried about falling into a crisis before the spring and thus the season finale. There is still a cushion to the relegation ranks, so the Hamburgers can actually take my Mainz St. Pauli tip quite relaxed.
They will face a team that hardly concedes any goals at home and a team that is very solid away from home – let’s hope it’s not a 0-0 draw! I don’t want to go that far, but I’ll tell you why I don’t think more than two goals will be scored here
The hosts are fighting for Europe and are in the middle of a large group of clubs all aiming for fourth place. However, Mainz must first get back into a stable form, which has been somewhat shaky of late.
Word should definitely have got around to the home side that their upcoming opponents feel a little more comfortable away from home and therefore have no reason to fear a disadvantage – and Jonathan Burkardt alone will certainly not be enough for Mainz!
Admittedly, the match may not sound like magic soccer at first glance, but you could also put it like this: Both teams can’t help the fact that they can defend well!
The oddsmakers’ prediction?
Mainz are clearly favored in the match, which is ensured by the standings and home advantage alone. If you simply want to bet on a home win, you can expect average odds of 1.85.
On the other hand, FC St. Pauli know that they are almost always the underdogs this season when playing away from home. The Kiezkickers will therefore probably not be bothered by the fact that the odds correspond to 4.40.
With odds of 3.55, the draw is absolutely inconspicuous in its odds. Since the visitors have never shared the points away from home, you should probably be a little cautious here before placing your bet.
AI prediction Mainz vs St. Pauli: ChatGPT
No Bundesliga betting tip without AI – but always with caution! Of course, artificial intelligence still has some catching up to do when it comes to statistics and the like, but it still provides us with a few interesting betting suggestions.
A high level of risk is always required for a result bet, in this case a 1:0 is on the test bench. The 05ers have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five home games, and St. Pauli also have the weakest attack with 18 goals. My conclusion: I can well imagine a 1:0.
If Mainz win to zero, we are in the medium risk area – and of course the same facts apply here as for the 1:0. Since the visitors have already remained completely goalless twelve times, I also consider this to be realistic.
In addition, ChatGPT has spit out the suggestion “Mainz scores first”. Admittedly, that seems absolutely realistic. But since St. Pauli have taken the lead in all four of their away wins, I would think carefully here.
Analysis: Mainz vs St. Pauli
Four points between ninth and fourth place? There are quite a few teams in the hunt for the last Champions League spot! Of course, there is still a long way to go in this season, but dreaming must be allowed.
Mainz know how to realistically assess their current sixth place, which is of course also due to the fact that many established teams such as Leipzig and Frankfurt regularly slip up – not to mention BVB.
And so the 05ers can currently dream of the premier class, although they have only won two of their last six games. After the 2:0 against Bochum at the start of the new year, the team slumped a little.
Most recently, however, they managed to avoid losing three games in a row for a third time in 2024/25, taking a 2-0 win from Heidenheim. 2:0, 0:1, 1:2, 2:0, 0:1, 0:0 and 2:0, the results this year have not been so spectacular.
Odds Analysis
With ten goals conceded at home, Mainz have a really strong defense at home. Since we don’t know Pauli as an attacking team anyway, the bet “Draw at half-time” comes into focus. At Betano, you can secure odds of 2.70 for this.
Of course, I also have to talk about Jonathan Burkardt, who is by far Mainz’s most dangerous player. He scored twice against Pauli in the first half of the season and most recently scored AND set up a goal against Heidenheim. This goal bet could therefore really pay off, with the Bet365 app offering odds of 2.62.
A half-time/final score bet could also be profitable here, as it is quite conceivable that not much will happen in the first half. Therefore I say: “X/1”! This combination has odds of 4.50.
Mainz vs St. Pauli: Unbeatable in their own stadium
This is also due to the fact that the Reds can defend really well. With 24 goals conceded, they have the second-best defense behind FC Bayern! At home, the Rheinhessen team are also behind the German record champions, having conceded ten goals.
With just one point from their first four home games, Mainz did not get off to a good start, but things have been going well since then. After five wins in a row, the most recent 0-0 draw against Augsburg was a little disappointing.
Two goals were conceded in this period – even though Dortmund, runners-up Stuttgart and FC Bayern were among the opponents! There’s no question that Mainz have become an absolute force in their own stadium
Pauli can also defend
The last time they conceded a goal at home in the first half was on 9 November. I can quickly tick off the history, because: Since 2011 there has only been one duel in the statistics, and that in the first half the 05s won 3:0.
A special day for all St. Pauli fans, because: It was the clearest defeat of the season and one of only two games in which they conceded three goals. That shows that the visitors from the far north can also defend!
With 25 goals conceded, they have conceded exactly one more than Mainz 05. The Hanseatic side have 21 points on their tally, giving them a stable seven-point cushion over 16th and 17th place.
For the first time since the start of the season, Pauli are threatened with three defeats in a row, as a 2-0 loss to RB Leipzig was followed by a bitter 1-0 defeat to SC Freiburg thanks to an own goal shortly before the final whistle.
Hamburg are struggling to score goals, with 18 goals representing the weakest attack in the league. Away from home, which Pauli are not really known for, the team actually feels a little more comfortable.
Four of their six wins have come here. If we take a purely geographical approach, we could say: Stuttgart, Hoffenheim, Heidenheim and Freiburg, always to zero? Baden-Württemberg suits the team particularly well away from home:
Good, Mainz isn’t in Baden-Württemberg, but it’s less than an hour’s drive from there! It’s interesting to note that FC St. Pauli only scored five times on both sides.
Of course, this is also due to the fact that 13 goals conceded away from home is very strong and is only undercut by FC Bayern. It’s actually quite simple: If Hamburg concede a goal in the first half, they will lose in the end.
In terms of personnel, there is some good news for all Pauli fans among you: Connor Metalfe has been welcomed back to training, so there’s nothing standing in the way of a trip to Mainz!
My Mainz St. Pauli tip:
Will St. Pauli be a stumbling block for Mainz’s international ambitions? Hamburg are feared away from home. They may have the most harmless attack in the league, but they defend all the better.
I also noticed a really strong defense on the 05 side, and the Rheinhessen are also brutally good in their own stadium and hardly concede any goals.
In this respect, we are up against two teams who know how to defend well. That’s why I can’t imagine that we’ll be in for a spectacle here and my bet is:
The 2.5 goals won’t be exceeded!
