La Liga, Saturday, 14.09.2024 at 14:00
The international break is over and the European champions have really improved after their opening game against Serbia! Meanwhile, I’m turning my focus back to club soccer – and the best that the Iberian Kingdom has to offer.
According to my Mallorca Villarreal tip, we can expect a hard-fought game on Saturday that could end in a similar way to the last clash between these two teams, which ended 1-1, as we all know
Mallorca, the 17th state in Germany – or as the locals say, “Los Bermellones” – go into the next matchday with a solid record of one win, two draws and one defeat after the first four league games.
The last two games before the international break even went without conceding a goal, which will have boosted the confidence of the Balearic footballers. Despite this positive development, however, it is not guaranteed that they will be able to continue their run of useful results unperturbed.
Watch out: Coach Jagoba Arrasate has failed to pick up a win in his last four head-to-head meetings with Villarreal, instead suffering three defeats with just one draw.
However, Mallorca’s home statistics could give cause for optimism. The islanders are still unbeaten at home and have taken a point off both Sevilla and Real Madrid – respect!
Meanwhile, going for lots of goals could be critical on Saturday, as only one of Mallorca’s last eight home games has ended with more than two goals. In the islanders’ last three games, there has only been a maximum of one goal per game.
I therefore tend to favor results like 1:0, 0:1, but also 0:0 and 1:1, which is why a sub-2.5-goal bet on almost every sports betting app at odds of currently 1.75 is something nice for me in any case
On the other hand, Villarreal, also known as “El Submarino Amarillo”, have not had a flawless start to their 2024/25 La Liga campaign and are still unbeaten.
Despite conceding seven goals in four matches, coach Marcelino’s side are in a solid fourth place.
What is particularly impressive is that Villarreal have kept a clean sheet four times in their last six matches against Mallorca (three wins, two draws, one defeat).
I personally take that as further statistical evidence that I might actually be right with my Mallorca Villarreal …
Solid defensive performances are the exception rather than the rule at Villarreal. Since November 2023, the “Yellow Submarine” has only kept a clean sheet once in their last 21 competitive matches away from home. An upset is therefore a distinct possibility.
Despite this tendency, Villarreal have shown exceptional taker qualities, provided they concede the first goal of the game.
Keep in mind: Since the start of last season, they have still won 1, drawn 5 and lost only 3 times after going behind in away games.
This shows that VIL is still able to pick up points even when trailing early.
An early 1-0 lead for the Mallorcans, followed by a stubborn comeback attempt by the “Yellow Submarine” to equalize, is therefore a scenario that I can very well imagine in this encounter on Saturday …
If we look at the Mallorca Villarreal odds without tax from various bookmakers, there are some exciting betting opportunities for this match. Let’s start with Dani Rodríguez, who has shown strong form.
The experienced midfielder has already scored one goal and provided one assist this season.
But this is where it gets really interesting: In his last seven duels against Villarreal, he has scored three times himself and assisted once.
The odds for Dani Rodríguez to score another goal against this opponent on Saturday are 9.00 – that’s a handsome sum that could be worth the bet.
On the other hand, we have Villarreal, who have scored in 19 of their last 21 away games. That suggests that the visitors will score again in this match.
The odds on the markets for Villarreal to score at least one goal are currently at 1.38. This offer is not particularly profitable, but VIL are statistically proven to be able to score goals consistently
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Conclusion: In my Mallorca Villarreal prediction, I am assuming a game with few goals and am betting on “Under 2.5 goals”.
Mallorca has often offered its spectators close games with minimal goals during the last home games.
Precisely because the last duel between the two opponents ended 1-1, I would be very surprised by a fundamentally different result on Saturday
My tip: Under 2.5 goals
