Manchester City – Leverkusen Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Tuesday, 25/11/2025 at 21:00 CET
Just as I was able to give you an accurate prediction of the Werkself’s last Bundesliga appearance last weekend, I’ll make a 180-degree turn on Tuesday.
The best odds boost today is different, the starting position is different – and above all, the upcoming opponent is different! Consequently, this time I don’t put my money on the Rhinelanders again, but rather on the much stronger Citizens.
According to my Manchester City Leverkusen tip, this will be a one-sided affair in favor of Pep Guardiola’s team. The unerring Erling Haaland will make sure of that!
Yes, City lost 2-1 to Newcastle at the weekend, but statistically speaking, there should still be little to burn against Leverkusen.
Not only because the Werkself have already gone down clearly against top teams this season, but also because the numbers speak for themselves.
Bayer Leverkusen have lost eight of their ten away games against English teams in the Champions League (1 win, 1 draw).
The most recent trip beyond the English Channel also ended with a clear 4-0 defeat at Liverpool FC in November 2024.
Manchester City – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
When I think about how many players are out at Leverkusen and how they have already performed this season against comparably strong opponents like PSG and Bayern, then I don’t even shy away from riskier betting manoeuvres!
Victory ManCity with HC -2 at odds around 2.50 at every good betting provider without tax is at the top of my list of courageous betting ideas.
Tapsoba’s suspension could further destabilise Leverkusen in an already difficult away game.
City wins both halves, promises odds of around 2.37 in the event of success and also enjoys first-class chances in my eyes.
I’m expecting a one-goal game at the Etihad on Tuesday anyway – and the one that Mark Flekken will guard!
What you need to know about Man City vs Leverkusen betting
- Manchester City won 13 games in a row against German opponents. FC Bayern Munich was the last German team to remain unbeaten at the Etihad Stadium in 2013.
- Bayer Leverkusen is one of the ten Champions League teams that have conceded an average of over 15,000 shots on goal per 90 minutes in the first four matchdays.
- Manchester City are the bookmakers’ third favourite to win the UEFA Champions League league stage. The Citizens are currently in fourth place, two points behind leaders Bayern Munich.
- 24 of Erling Haaland’s 31 goals for the Citizens in the UEFA Champions League were direct shots (77%). The 24 direct shots are the highest figure of all players in the competition since the start of the 2022/23 season.
Manchester City – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our data model specialises in evaluating facts and figures and deriving promising football bets from them – the successful Manchester City Leverkusen AI forecast is no exception!
The well-founded assumption of our AI is that the English will put their stamp on the game from the start and will keep the reins in their hands until the final whistle.
Against this background, the selection half-time/final score 1/1 makes a lot of sense, even at odds of about 1.70. Because in this Champions League season, Man City was not behind for a single second – in 62% of the total season they even led!
Win ManCity with HC -3 at odds of around 4.35 is also recommended by our data model. Personally, however, another suggestion appeals to me more: Haaland scores.
The Norwegian is outstanding at putting the ball in the net – even if he came away empty-handed in terms of goals against Newcastle at the weekend after a long time!
In any case, the numbers speak for themselves: 24 of Haaland’s 31 Champions League goals resulted from direct shots. No other player has scored so many goals of this kind in the competition since the start of the 2022/23 season.
The best odds for Manchester City vs. Leverkusen
Let’s take a clear look at the betting markets and classify the Manchester City Leverkusen odds. In view of the many absences on the Werkself side, it should really come as no surprise to anyone that the bookmakers’ opinion on the outcome of this game was so clear.
Because a home three-pointer of the Citizens is valued at 1.23 – which corresponds to a probability of occurrence of around 78 percent.
The bookies therefore very clearly assume that City controls the action at home and Leverkusen simply has too many personnel problems to keep up over 90 minutes.
The draw is 6.50, i.e. just under 15 percent chance. This ratio clearly shows how low the markets estimate the probability that Leverkusen will be able to neutralize City over the entire distance.
After all, there is an average of 12.0 for an away win for the Werkself, which corresponds to a probability of around 8 per cent.
The opinion of the bookmakers is therefore unmistakable: Leverkusen needs an almost perfect evening to even come close to a point.
Manchester City vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
As usual under Pep Guardiola, City will set the pace, with long periods of possession and structured positional play that presses Leverkusen deep into their own half.
The hosts have an average of over 65% possession in the Champions League – a clear indication that Bayer will have to work without the ball for a long time. At the same time, City has become more variable this season.
Cherki and Doku position themselves closer to Haaland to collect second balls and initiate quick attacks. This also allows City to act more directly and outplay Leverkusen’s pressing if Hjulmand’s team tries to attack higher.
It is precisely in such moments that City’s greatest danger lurks: a won duel, a vertical pass, Haaland in a full sprint – Leverkusen must prevent these situations at all costs.
On the other hand, Leverkusen will try to set pinpricks with their newly won vertical style of play.
Hjulmand is more courageous going forward and if the Werkself outplay City’s first pressing line, they can be quite dangerous.
However, the 3-0 defeat against Bayern showed that Bayer have problems when they lose a lot of 1-on-1 duels. This is exactly what could be repeated against a physically extremely dominant City eleven.
Manchester City Form Check
Manchester City have found their way back to their old form after a shaky start to the season and are really fun on the pitch.
New players Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki bring fresh momentum, while Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku are back in top form.
Together with Haaland, who has currently scored 16 goals for Norway, City are showing both in the Premier League and in Europe that they are to be taken seriously.
The team plays dominantly, controls the midfield, relies on fast combinations and high intensity. Especially the attack on the wings and Haaland’s finishing strength make them extremely dangerous.
After the 4-1 win against Dortmund at the Etihad Stadium, City are particularly strong against German teams: In the last 24 games against German clubs in the Champions League, there has been only one defeat (19 wins, 4 draws).
Under Pep Guardiola, ball control is in the foreground, the team plays fluently and precisely.
However, there are still nine tough games waiting until the end of the year, including away games against Real Madrid and Crystal Palace. The balance between offense and defense will be crucial to continue the series successfully.
Leverkusen form check
Bayer Leverkusen have had problems in the Champions League so far to bring their usual strong offensive play from the Bundesliga onto the pitch.
Under Kasper Hjulmand, the Werkself only produce 1.55 xG per game in Europe, while in the Bundesliga it is still 2.40 xG.
The team is dominant in possession, tries quick combinations and creative solutions in the final third, but the efficiency falls short of expectations.
The attacking efforts are clearly recognizable, but not yet consistently effective.
Meanwhile, a gloomy picture is emerging away from home: Leverkusen have lost eight of their last ten Champions League away games against English teams – as mentioned at the beginning.
Opponents such as Manchester City, Newcastle and Villarreal will put their defence to the test – so far, Leverkusen have allowed 5.5 shots on target and 1.72 xGA per game.
The defence still looks vulnerable to fast and precise counterattacks, so the Werkself are fighting and strong on the European stage but do not yet have the necessary consistency to win against top teams.
