Europa League, Semi-final, Second Leg, Thursday, 08.05.2025 at 21:00
Can Manchester United still salvage the 2024/25 season? I address this question in my Manchester United vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction. The Red Devils are certainly on the verge of reaching the Europa League final.
Coach Ruben Amorim’s men won the first leg of the semi-final at Athletic Bilbao 3-0 last week. In the history of the UEFA Cup/Europa League, there have been 133 teams that have won the first leg away by three goals or more.
And in the end, all 133 teams advanced to the next round. Can MUFC already book their tickets for the final? The United coach believes that even the EL title will not save the season.
Because the problems behind United’s difficulties this season run much deeper. Last week’s game was particularly bitter for Athletic Bilbao.
This year’s Europa League final will be held at the Estadio San Mamés, home of the “Zuri-Gorriak.” But the Basques’ chances of reaching the final at home have fallen to almost zero.
I see the situation similarly and am placing my Manchester United Athletic Bilbao prediction at odds of 1.74 with Merkur Bets on “Double Chance 1X & Under 3.5 Goals.”
The bookmakers’ prediction
The home side are clearly ahead in terms of total market value, at €699 million to €367 million. In addition, last week’s result and home advantage favor the Premier League representatives.
Nevertheless, the differences in the Manchester United Athletic Bilbao odds are not that significant. This is, of course, due to the fact that the hosts can even afford a narrow defeat to reach the final.
For a home win, you can get maximum odds of 2.10 at the best bookies, including several betting providers with Apple Pay and sports betting providers with PayPal.
You can get even more if you sign up with Merkur Bets. The bookmaker is increasing the odds for a Manchester win to 10.0, valid for new customers who follow our link to the exclusive Merkur Bets Man United Athletic Bilbao Superboost. In addition, there is a $40 free bet available with a deposit of $1.
On the other hand, a Basque victory with Manchester United against Athletic Bilbao is rewarded with betting odds between 3.40 and 3.60.
AI prediction Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao: Here’s what ChatGPT thinks
Even though the duel between the two teams seems to have already been decided, ChatGPT has an exciting and interesting opinion on the second leg. The AI initially assumes that the home side will not go full throttle after their clear victory last week.
So we are presented with a low-risk recommendation for the Manchester United Athletic Bilbao tip: “Bilbao to win with a handicap of +1.” Bookmaker Interwetten would pay us odds of 1.73 for this.
Nevertheless, I would be cautious here. United are in very good form and strong at home in European competition this season. On the other hand, I have a good feeling about the AI’s medium-risk suggestion. Here, ChatGPT is betting on more than two goals.
And in the five matches between the two clubs so far, there have been a total of 22 goals (4.4 goals on average). If this series continues, you can secure odds of 1.85 for it at AdmiralBet. For new customers, the recommendation is made even more attractive by the AdmiralBet betting bonus.
Finally, as always, we take a look at the high risk. Here, artificial intelligence is betting on “United to win & both teams to score.” First, the good news: at Bwin, the odds for this bet have climbed from 3.90 to 4.33 thanks to the “Price Boost.”
However, as always with high-risk recommendations, these suggestions should be treated with caution! New and existing customers can still secure the current Bwin voucher!
Analysis: Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao
Manchester United’s Premier League season has been a disaster. The 3-4 defeat at Brentford at the weekend was their 16th loss of the season. They haven’t suffered so many defeats since 1989/90.
In recent weeks, when the situation was already hopeless, coach Ruben Amorim has certainly accepted a few points drops in favor of the Europa League. Several regular players were also rested against the Bees.
But that excuse doesn’t apply for the rest of the season. Those in charge hoped that sacking coach Erik ten Hag would have a positive effect. But not much has really improved under the new man.
The Portuguese prefers to play his teams in a 3-4-3 formation. However, the coach doesn’t have the players for his preferred system at the Red Devils. Nevertheless, he usually sends United out onto the pitch in this formation.
At least United have been impressive in the Europa League. The Red Devils are the only team in all European competitions still unbeaten in 2024/25. Manchester have only lost one of their last 30 EL home games (23W, 6D).
However, they reached the semi-finals with more luck than skill in the quarter-finals against Olympique Lyon. The Red Devils could become the seventh team to reach the EL final without defeat.
In its European Cup history, MUFC has never lost a European Cup home game by three or more goals. And with another win in the final, they could still qualify for next season’s Champions League after this horror season.
Odds analysis
In addition to the AI’s suggestions, there are of course other Manchester United Athletic Bilbao tips to be gleaned from this second leg. I see the goalscorer markets as being right at the top here.
Man United midfielder Bruno Fernandes is joint top of the scoring charts with seven goals, alongside Ayoub El Kaabi (Olympiacos) and Kasper Högh (Bodö/Glimt). And for the visitors, Inaki Williams is particularly dangerous on the road in 2024/25.
The 2024 European champion has scored four of his team’s seven EL away goals. If you can’t decide between the two attackers, Winamax has the perfect solution.
Here, we can place a bet on “Williams or Fernandes to score” at odds of 2.15. The “Both teams to score” bet is also a good option. NEO.bet currently offers odds of 1.76 for this bet.
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao odds: The dream is over!
In the previous season, coach Ernesto Valverde led Athletic Club to fifth place in the final standings. That was the club’s best finish since the 2015/16 season.
Bilbao also secured its first title since 1984 with its triumph in the Copa del Rey. And the Basques are continuing their upward trend under their current coach this season.
The Lions were already in fourth place after the first half of the season. The “Zuri-Gorriak” still hold this position after 34 of 38 matchdays. They are currently four points ahead of the first non-Champions League spot.
The Lehoiak’s pride and joy is their defense. They have conceded just 26 goals, which is currently the best record in La Liga. No other team in the Primera Division has lost fewer than five games this season.
The offense is impressive with players such as Inaki Williams and Oihan Sancet. However, Sancet, who has already scored 17 goals in the 2024/25 season, is currently out of action due to injury.
The second option for a Champions League ticket is now on the brink of collapse. The club’s dream was, of course, to reach the Europa League final and win its first international title.
Bilbao is particularly strong at home in La Liga. In the current season, they have only lost one game in 17 matches (10W, 6D). In addition, they have conceded only ten goals at home, the best record in Europe’s top five leagues.
One red card changes everything!
The two clubs first met in the 1956/57 season. Bilbao won the first leg of the quarter-final of the European Cup 5-3 at home. However, a 3-0 defeat in the second leg saw the Basques knocked out of the competition.
Bilbao and United then met again in the 2011/12 season in the Europa League. This time, Athletic Club advanced to the quarter-finals with a 3-2 away win and a 2-1 home victory.
Ernesto Valverde’s men got off to a strong start in front of their home fans last week. The visitors were completely overwhelmed at the start of the game and only avoided conceding a goal thanks to poor finishing from the home side.
After a good half hour, however, the game turned in favor of the Red Devils. After a surprise goal to make it 1-0, the Premier League side benefited from a red card for the hosts and a penalty to make it 2-0.
The game was then decided with a 3-0 lead shortly before half-time. The Basques still lead the head-to-head record against United with three wins to two defeats. However, Athletic Club have lost seven of their nine away games in England (1W, 1D).
The Red Devils, on the other hand, have lost only one of their last eight home games in the Europa League against teams from Spain (4W, 3D).
My Manchester United Athletic Bilbao prediction:
The Basques could have taken control of the game against United in the first half hour. But then, in the quarter-hour before the break, the game turned in favor of the Red Devils.
Vivian’s red card in particular turned the game on its head. Manchester will not let this lead slip now. MUFC are too strong at home and in form this season.
In addition, the Europa League is hugely important for the club in the final stages of the season. Furthermore, such a lead has never been squandered in the history of the UEFA Cup/Europa League.
My Manchester United Athletic Bilbao prediction: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals!
