Manchester United – Newcastle Tip Premier League, Matchday 18 on Friday, 26/12/25 at 21:00 CET
Shortly after Christmas, I have a Manchester United Newcastle tip up my sleeve for you, which can be spiced up by a suitable Oddset odds boost.
In any case, making an “Over 2.5 goals” bet could prove worthwhile, even if I secretly think that the Magpies will score the majority of those goals.
United have already conceded 28 Premier League goals, which is anything but little. Just before Christmas, they allowed quite a lot against Bournemouth (4-4) and Aston Villa (1-2).
The fact that the Red Devils have also lost important players to the AFCON makes them more vulnerable than ever.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle AI Predictions:
Our Manchester United Newcastle AI prediction dares to say what is a bit difficult for me, but would be absolutely justified at odds around 2.95 at any German bookmaker – win Newcastle!
Because the Magpies are also a bit better in my opinion. Against Chelsea, they dominated the first half and only ended up drawing 2-2 because the Blues are the Blues.
Manchester, on the other hand, are not at the same level at the moment and have also lost key players such as Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui to the Africa Cup of Nations.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Manchester United |
Draw |
Win Newcastle |
| 37.4% |
27.3% |
35.3% |
In a nutshell, our data model assumes a possible 1:3 for Newcastle, which could take off especially after the change of ends.
“Highest-scoring half: 2nd half” at odds of around 1.90 is recommended to you for several reasons: On the one hand, because 9 of the last 12 first division goals conceded by ManU were only scored after the break.
On the other hand, because no Premier League team has ever shown itself to be more vulnerable late in the game than Newcastle – no one else concedes 10 or more goals within the final quarter of an hour!
Since 9 of the last 10 competitive games of the Magpies have also resulted in at least three goals, I can also agree with the final risk suggestion of our AI – namely “Over 3.5 goals” at values around 2.55.
What you need to know about Manchester United vs. Newcastle betting
- Although Manchester United were only seventh in the table before this matchday, they are second overall in the Premier League in terms of expected goals (xG).
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games – a run that dates back to last season.
- Newcastle have won five of their last six meetings against Manchester United in all competitions. A bet on Newcastle in these six games would have made a profit of +6.21 units in the 1×2 market.
- Bruno Fernandes created the most scoring chances in the Premier League this season (51). Manchester City’s Jeremy Doku is in second place (36).
