Premier League 26th matchday, Sunday, 23/02/2025 at 17:30
Manchester City vs. Liverpool – just last season, this clash could have decided the English championship.
But the current course of the 2024/25 season gives the Reds hope that their lead will be enough to see them through to the end of the season, regardless of the outcome of this top game.
Their advantage over their pursuers seems to be big enough for that, as long as LFC doesn’t suddenly start stumbling again, of course…
However, in view of the table, a defeat at the Etihad would be better avoided.
It’s a good thing the visitors have Mohamed Salah with them. It is not without reason that the Egyptian is the focus of my Manchester City Liverpool prediction.
It’s not an easy task, but a double victory over the reigning champions? Only Liverpool could probably manage that.
The Reds have already defeated the defending champions in both league games six times in Premier League history, more often than any other team.
An away win would therefore be entirely possible, even if it is not a prerequisite for the success of my Manchester City Liverpool tip.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Looking at the Manchester City Liverpool odds, you would almost think it was a coin toss – the betting providers expect it to be almost a 50:50 thing.
With ManCity at 2.75, a draw at 3.85 and Liverpool at 2.35, we can expect a real neck-and-neck race on Sunday. And I can’t see a clear favorite either.
Analysis: Manchester City vs Liverpool
Manchester City was unable to qualify for the Champions League knockout round, as expected – and that hits the Citizens twice. Because two unnecessary and exhausting games against Real would have been spared in the run-up to such an important game.
Especially since Liverpool were able to take these two weeks off to prepare for the Wolves (2:1) and the game against them.
Nevertheless, ManCity is now capable of much more resistance than a few months ago, when nothing seemed to work.
In the 4-0 win over Newcastle, I was already able to give you the successful tip that the defending champions are actually back on their feet again.
But is it enough to beat Liverpool? That’s the big question!
Odds analysis
Being offered around 2.05 on the Bet365 app for a “Haaland goal” is definitely interesting. The Norwegian is back in form and is a crucial weapon for the Citizens. When he starts scoring regularly again, the results will improve.
However, I would advise against betting on excessive goals. For example, the average odds for an over 2.5-goal game have been set quite low at 1.40, which does not necessarily justify the risk involved.
Now that ManCity are playing some pretty decent football again, my willingness to bet against a pretty fierce statistic is waning.
Manchester City have only lost one of their last 15 Premier League home games against Liverpool, by 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
However, you can also apply a free bet if you wish and thus pass the betting risk of your Manchester City Liverpool tip completely on to the bookmaker.
Salah scores almost every time against ManCity!
The reason why the Citizens are now doing much better is that they are making significantly better use of their chances.
In their six Premier League games in 2025, Manchester City have scored 20 goals from just 81 shots, giving them a league-leading 24.7% shot conversion rate in that calendar year.
By comparison, between August and December of this year, their shot conversion rate was just 9.6%.
This is a game of prestige, so expect plenty of goals, and Mohamed Salah is always worth backing for a goal.
The Egyptian has scored more Premier League goals against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City than any other player since 2016/17 (13 goals – 8 goals, 5 assists).
In the entire history of the Premier League, only Steven Gerrard (14) has done better, with 4 goals and 10 assists against the Citizens.
Incidentally, I’m not the most superstitious sports betting pro in our editorial team, but one trend also makes me wonder…
Note: Liverpool are undefeated (11 wins, 2 draws) in their last 13 Premier League matches that fell on a Sunday, scoring at least one goal in each of those games.
The last time the Reds lost in the league on a Sunday was a 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in April 2024.
My bet:
Manchester City have improved a lot since December, but they will still face a challenge against Liverpool.
LFC have been able to use the last two European Cup weeks to fully focus on the league and are in top form despite the shocking FA Cup defeat to Plymouth.
City will have to perform much better than in the second leg of the UCL against Real Madrid if they are to get something against the “Reds”.
My Manchester City Liverpool betting tip: Salah scores.
