Marseille – Newcastle Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Tuesday, 25/11/2025 at 21:00 CET
On Matchday 5 of the Champions League, the starting position for the match between Olympique Marseille and Newcastle United is clear.
While the French urgently need a win to avoid losing touch with the playoff places, Newcastle are looking to cement their place in the top eight.
So both teams have good reasons to look for a way into the offensive. Accordingly, in my Marseille Newcastle tip, I target the bet “Over 2.5 goals” at odds around 1.70 at Winamax.
Although Newcastle United is currently only in 14th place in the Premier League, the mood among the Magpies could be much worse. After all, they are well on their way to the first knockout round in the Champions League and were recently able to set an example in general with the 2-1 win against Manchester City.
For Olympique Marseille, however, the situation is the opposite. In the league, they keep pace with PSG and are a serious title contender.
In the Champions League, however, they are under a lot of pressure after three defeats in the first four matchdays. The French simply cannot afford another defeat against Newcastle.
Marseille – Newcastle Prediction & Betting
Since I expect an open exchange of blows, in which both Marseille and Newcastle play fully for victory, the classic “Both teams to score” at odds around 1.60 is the first betting alternative. In three of the last four Newcastle games, the bet would also have fit.
The “Double Chance X2” is also worth considering. The odds scratch the 1.50 mark and fit the starting position. Newcastle are consistently successful in the Champions League, while OM cannot confirm the successes from the league in the European Cup.
The football bet “Newcastle over 1.5 goals” takes a similar line at odds of about 2.15. The Magpies have already scored ten goals after four CL games and are unlikely to hold back in Marseille either.
What you need to consider when betting on Marseille vs. Newcastle
- Newcastle have won just one of their previous eight away games in France (4-0 against Sochaux in the 2004/05 UEFA Cup season).
- Marseille have not won their last twelve games against English teams (D3 L9).
- Newcastle have never celebrated four consecutive victories in the Champions League in their history (they are currently at three).
- Marseille is the only team in the current Champions League season that has already lost two games despite a 1-0 lead.
- Newcastle currently have ten CL goals – that’s already four more than in the Magpies’ entire last CL season (6 goals in 2023/24).
Marseille – Newcastle: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI model doesn’t want to miss out on this Champions League week either and has three prediction alternatives in store for you in its very own Marseille Newcastle AI prediction.
First, the digital brain throws the bet “draw at half-time” into the room. The odds are about 2.15 and make perfect sense. There is no clear favourite. A 1-1 draw at half-time would really not be bad for the game.
“Nick Woltemade scores” is the second selection of the AI. With odds around 2.55 – even without an odds boost – you can get weak when you consider that the former Stuttgart player didn’t need any time to get used to it and already has six goals this season.
The AI has a result tip for you at the end. The “2:1 for Newcastle” makes it to an odd of about 9.75 and is unquestionably not plucked out of thin air. If I had to choose, however, I would go for the 2:2 at odds around 12.5.
The best odds for Marseille vs. Newcastle
A look at the classic 1×2 odds already makes it clear that it is likely to be extremely close between Olympique Marseille and Newcastle United. The Magpies go into the encounter as slight favorites. With odds of 2.50 for an away win, however, the role of favourites is by no means pronounced.
For example, the odds for a home win are only slightly higher at around 2.80. Marseille have won one home game so far this CL season. With 4-0, the victory came clearly against Ajax Amsterdam.
However, it is also true that Ajax is having a disastrous CL season and is currently in last place in the table – with a goal difference of 1:14.
Accordingly, I find the 3.35 much more interesting for a draw between OM and Newcastle. The quota is estimated to be rather below average, which alone indicates the tight starting position.
Marseille vs Newcastle Match Analysis:
Unfortunately, the direct comparison between Marseille and Newcastle is not a real tip help. Up to this point, the two teams have only met twice. And both duels are already more than 20 years in the past.
In the UEFA Cup at the time, Newcastle had to settle for a 0-0 draw in front of their home crowd. Marseille won the second leg 2-0. Thus, the Magpies are still waiting for their first goal against the French.
On Tuesday, I expect a much more turbulent game. Newcastle is – on paper – one of the most attacking teams in the Champions League. And Marseille also showed with the four goals against Ajax that they can deliver in front of their home crowd.
If it comes to a close result, then in my opinion a 3-2 or 2-3 is more likely than a narrow 1-0 victory. I don’t expect a clear story between these two teams anyway.
Marseille Form Check
Olympique Marseille has been playing a strange season so far. Although they are currently only two points behind PSG in Ligue 1 and are more stable than they have been for a long time, they are not bringing the horsepower to the asphalt in the Champions League.
Of course, it should not be forgotten that OM have suffered three defeats in the Champions League against Real Madrid, Sporting Lisbon and Atalanta Bergamo. A rewarding kick-off programme undoubtedly looks different.
Especially offensively, however, OM must do more against Newcastle. Four of the six CL goals so far have come against Ajax. They are the strongest offensive team in Ligue 1 – even ahead of PSG.
Accordingly, it can be assumed that the French will put all their eggs in one basket against Newcastle and set their sights on three immensely important points. Under these conditions, a restrained appearance is simply unlikely.
Newcastle Form Check
At first glance, Newcastle’s record is really impressive. The Magpies have won seven of the last ten games. Recently, a heavyweight was even defeated with the 2-1 win against Manchester City.
However, the defeats against Brentford, West Ham and Brighton in the meantime also prove that Newcastle can get into great trouble on bad days, even against middle-class teams.
The strong record in the Champions League must therefore be assessed with a pinch of caution, especially since no absolute top teams were beaten with Bilbao, Benfica and Saint-Gilloise. A completely unchallenged away win in Marseille is therefore not exactly on the horizon of the Champions League.
Last but not least, the offensive discrepancy between the league and the Champions League is striking. After twelve league games, the Magpies have 13 goals this season. In the Champions League, it is only three goals less after four games. Therefore, they have certainly not underperformed in the European Cup so far.
