Europa League, Thursday, 30/01/2025 at 9:00 pm
Being knocked out in the group stage of an international competition? For someone like José Mourinho, that’s unthinkable! That could happen to his club Fenerbahce, because whenever I put the canaries on the table in our Europa League tips, they only convince me to a limited extent.
Fener’s final trip to decide their fate in the Europa League takes them to Denmark, where they face an opponent who has only one point more on the board. A game between equals, then? You might think so, but our bookmakers see the visitors as the frontrunners.
In my Midtjylland Fenerbahce betting tip, I take a close look at this assessment and, of course, provide you with my own. It differs in that I don’t think that the Danes necessarily have to be the underdogs here. I also think defensively.
Actually, both teams have to play for victory, which definitely makes the game even more exciting. And since I expect a number of close results on both sides, I am all the more convinced that we will see a duel between two evenly matched opponents.
I still owe you my specific tip, which is: Under 3.5 goals! Since both clubs have only scored seven times in the current competition, I don’t think we can expect a wild back and forth here.
The bookmakers’ prediction
One win, one draw and one defeat, Midtjylland have seen it all at home. If you take a look at our bookmakers with Apple Pay, you’ll see odds of 3.30.
The visitors’ odds are quite a bit lower, especially considering that they are playing away. Odds of 2.10? Not bad at all for a team that has only won narrowly twice.
With a draw, nobody should feel safe about getting through, especially the guests from Istanbul. If it actually comes to a draw, you can expect odds of 3.55.
For those who like to use ChatGPT to find out which bets we can expect for the Europa League group final, I have taken on this task as usual and been presented with three interesting tips.
In the high-risk area, we are dealing with an outcome bet this time, with a 1-0 win for the home team on the table. Since Midtjylland has already won three times with a clean sheet and Fener could only eke out two narrow victories, I think this result is not out of the question.
If you rule out both teams scoring, you are placing a medium-risk bet. Fenerbahce have not scored twice in a row recently, and Midtjylland have only done so twice anyway. Since neither are among the best in terms of offense, you could be right.
How many goals will the Danes score? With the AI, one thing is clear: they tend not to see more than 1.5 goals. Since all home games had exactly one goal, I can certainly agree here, even though Fener’s defense is not exactly watertight.
Analysis: Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce has set its sights on the knockout stages, ideally without the hassle of a playoff. But as is often the case with Turkish teams, their own ideas do not match reality!
José Mourinho’s international experience was of little use to his team, as Fener never really got into the competition. After the 2-1 win against Royale Union, a rather unsuccessful phase began.
1-1 draw with Twente and Manchester United and 1-3 loss to Alkmaar, the fans were not amused. The 2-1 win over Slavia Prague only bought them a little breathing space, as they then lost 0-2 to Athletic Bilbao and drew 0-0 with Olympique Lyon.
Seven goals in seven games? The team, which has scored 52 goals in 20 rounds of the Süper Lig, is having a much harder time in international competition. They have only managed a brace twice, and have not scored at all in the last two matches.
Odds analysis
Four times 1-0, twice 0-1? In the first half of FC Midtjylland, exactly one goal was scored! Since three of the guests’ matches also went into the break with exactly one goal, this could be a bet for you. At Betano, you get odds of 2.75.
This could also mean that more generally happens before half-time. This bet is quite risky, but with odds of 3.05, you can take a risk.
The AI suggested a 1-0 result for you, but in my opinion a 1-1 is a bit better. This has happened three times between the two clubs, and the odds for the direct duel jump to 7.90.
Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce: How is Fener dealing with the pressure?
The opponents helped out once (the 2:1 against St. Gilloise was an own goal), the other time in Prague they celebrated a second time a few minutes before the final whistle. At the same time, however, you surely also recognize that the defense has played a clean sheet for the time being.
Whether the Canaries are playing at home or away, it seems to make no difference at all in the Europa League. So I can sum it up quite simply: the fans are wondering why things can’t go the way they do in the Süper Lig.
Sure, their club is six points behind Galatasaray here, but in 20 match days, they have only lost twice – but in Europe, seven games were enough! Fenerbahce have never played against Midtjylland, but I can report that three out of four matches against Danish opponents have not been lost.
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Will Midtjylland take advantage of home advantage?
FC Midtjylland have one point more but are not under much less pressure to advance. At least the Danes were able to end their crisis just in time for the end of the preliminary round.
They won twice in a row after drawing 1-1 with Hoffenheim, first beating Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 and then Royale Union 1-0. After that, however, a losing streak set in.
0-2 against Steau, 1-2 against Eintracht Frankfurt and 0-2 against FC Porto, in all three games Midtjylland was already 0-1 behind at half-time. The 2-0 win against Rasgrad appeased the supporters again and significantly increased their chances of reaching the playoffs.
Those who paid attention will notice that both teams only scored twice. In addition, only the 1-2 against Frankfurt surpassed the magical 2.5-goal mark, with the second goal against coming from a penalty.
It’s interesting: in all the games that ended in points, the teams were already leading after the first 45 minutes. After a dismal phase in the league, Midtjylland has also recovered in the Danish competition.
Four defeats in five games had been recorded, but now they have won twice in a row again. Incidentally, the team does not have much experience with Turkish opponents.
In 2016, in the Europa League qualifiers, Midtjylland faced Ankaraspor in the playoffs. The matches were not really turbulent, with the favorites from Scandinavia winning 1-0 and 2-0.
Midtjylland Fenerbahce Betting Tip:
No easy task for Fenerbahce! The Turkish vice-champions will have their work cut out to make it to the playoffs, because in my opinion, FC Midtjylland are not to be trifled with. I see both teams on roughly the same level, especially offensively.
I have recognized seven goals on both left and right, which is not exactly a top value spread over seven games. In addition, the home side defend quite well and have only ever conceded in a single result that topped 2.5 goals.
Based on the situation in the table, I don’t expect us to see a wild shootout here, but rather a fight that will be won. Therefore, I think the following tip is appropriate:
The 3.5 goals will not be exceeded!