Europa League, Wednesday, 25/09/2024 at 21:00
Goals, goals, goals! That’s exactly what I expect at the start of the 2024/25 Europa League season in the clash between FC Midtjylland and TSG Hoffenheim.
Who will come out on top in the end, however, plays only a minor role in my Midtjylland Hoffenheim betting tip. As always, the focus is on success-oriented betting opportunities that can be derived from the available statistics.
The Bundesliga club’s disappointing start to the season is, of course, a key element in this. After a turbulent pre-season with a total of 14 defeats, TSG actually wanted to present itself in a much more stable light this season.
However, the first four Bundesliga match days speak an almost opposite language. With eleven goals against, the Kraichgauer find themselves in 15th place in the table and are unquestionably among the big losers of the early season phase.
The Europa League tie with FC Midtjylland is not really ideal for TSG.
Especially since the Danes are in great form and it is not unlikely that the leaky Hoffenheim defense will once again struggle.
My main bet “Over 3.5 goals” (2.12 @Betano) will not be the only goal bet in my Midtjylland Hoffenheim prediction that argues in favor of a goal-filled clash.
As I will show you, FC Midtjylland also prefers a more offensive approach to playing.
The bookmakers’ prediction
After the setbacks at the beginning of the season, it is no surprise that the odds in the Betano app see 1899 Hoffenheim as slight underdogs against Midtjylland.
A win for the Bundesliga club brings odds of around 2.70. A win for the home team is priced at around 2.50.
It is interesting to note that despite the fairly even starting point, the odds for a draw are by no means in a clearly below-average range and are listed at 3.65.
This in turn means that the “Double Chance 1X” at odds of 1.50 is playable as a single tip even without a odds boost and is unquestionably one of the better tip alternatives if you are not into betting on the number of goals.
KI prediction Midtjylland vs Hoffenheim: That’s what ChatGPT tips
I have to admit that in most cases I can’t do much with AI-generated tips. The selection suggested by ChatGPT is too random in the vast majority of cases.
However, I am pleasantly surprised by the Midtjylland Hoffenheim AI prediction. Because ChatGPT has also plunged into betting on goals with all its bits and bytes and taken into account the playing style of both teams.
Even the high-risk bet “Midtjylland win & both teams score” is one I can sign. A score of around 3:1 in favor of the Danes is by no means unrealistic given the problems Hoffenheim are facing.
The tip “both teams score & over 2.5 goals” at a medium risk takes the same line. I have no objections here either.
At low risk, the AI selects the “Over 2.5 goals” bet, which is something like the safety-first approach of my own bet. If I contradict this, I should change careers in the short term.
Analysis: Midtjylland vs Hoffenheim
FC Midtjylland have a lot in common with TSG Hoffenheim: the Danes can’t seem to get their defense tight.
In fact, Midtjylland have conceded at least one goal in each of their last nine matches. At the same time, the leaders of the Danish Superliga have scored in every game since mid-July.
The bet “Both teams score” for the clash with Hoffenheim is only quoted at around 1.45, but it should still be considered a safe bet for a combination tip.
Also important to remember: Midtjylland’s only defeat this season was in the Champions League qualifier against Slovan Bratislava (2-3).
At least on the international stage, the Scandinavians quickly reach their limits.
But whether TSG Hoffenheim can actually benefit from this weakness in their current state is at least doubtful.
The facts: The Kraichgauer have lost three of the first four Bundesliga games this season. The only win came against the currently bottom-placed team from Kiel, by a narrow margin (3:2).
In all four games, they also conceded at least two goals.
If that is also the case against Midtjylland, you can look forward to odds of around 1.90.
Odds analysis
The bookmakers expect a high-scoring and even game. Accordingly, you can also take a look at the result bets.
From the betting providers’ point of view, a 1-1 draw is the most likely result with odds of just under 8.00. However, I expect the game to be much more turbulent and would therefore focus on a 2-2 draw.
The risk is of course greater, but so is the reward at odds of around 11.3. Another option worth considering is the “half-time draw” bet.
The odds for this climb to a solid 2.30. And a 1-1 at half-time is truly not a surreal scenario given the initial situation.
Hoffenheim’s Andrej Kramaric is a possible scorer. If the TSG pro scores, odds of 6.90 apply.
Admittedly, only four matchdays of the Bundesliga have been played so far. However, the away table does not lie at this early stage of the season.
And with two defeats and a goal difference of 2:5, TSG is now the third-worst away team in the league. This is not a letter of application for a liberation against Midtjylland.
If I now tell you that the Danes have won all four of their home games in the league so far, scoring nine goals in the process, you can imagine that a Hoffenheim Europa League stroll in Denmark is not exactly on the horizon.
Hoffenheim not a heavyweight internationally!
The direct comparison is only of limited use. FC Midtjylland and TSG Hoffenheim have never met before.
However, the Danes have had Bundesliga contact in the past.
In fact, they have already met Kaiserslautern, Schalke, St. Pauli and HSV. The record is quite solid with three wins, one draw and two defeats.
Hoffenheim is playing against a team from Denmark for the first time ever.
But that’s not surprising. After all, the Kraichgau team’s European Cup experience is generally limited.
Their greatest success was reaching the Champions League group stage in 2018/19. They also made it to the Europa League intermediate round in 2020/21.
But TSG have not yet felt completely comfortable on the international stage. Whether that will change in this Europa League season remains to be seen, of course.
Midtjylland, on the other hand, have been regular participants in European club competitions due to their national success. And the Scandinavians have also played in the Champions League (2020/21).
Overall, the point in terms of European Cup experience thus goes to Midtjylland.
I’m not going out on a limb when I predict that the game between Midtjylland and Hoffenheim will in all likelihood not end 0-0.
Both teams are offensive, but at the same time have major problems defensively.
I therefore expect a wild battle in which both penalty areas will be in play for the Europa League opener. Whether Hoffenheim will get three points in the end or come away empty-handed is hard to predict.
Accordingly, I’m not making any 1×2 predictions and am concentrating on a goal bet. This is my Midtjylland Hoffenheim tip: There will be a total of over 3.5 goals.
