La Liga 2 Play-Offs, Second Leg, Thursday, 12.06.2025 at 21:00
Will this promotion battle never end? In Spain, this week is all about who will make it to the big playoff final. My Mirandes Santander tip promises 90 minutes +X of pure excitement, as the first leg ended in a spectacular 3-3 draw.
I’m not necessarily betting on another goal fest, but I would like to point out how strong the home team has been at home this season, which is almost over. So I’m making it “easy” for myself and predicting that Mirandes will beat Santander and advance to the final!
How do you score three goals from two shots on goal? Please address this question to Racing Santander! The Racinguistas fought their way to a draw in the first leg of the playoff semifinals, and they did so in highly dramatic fashion.
In the eighth minute of stoppage time, an own goal by Mirandes ensured that no one can go into the second leg with a comfortable lead. Santander, fifth in the 2024/25 regular season, has won only three of its last ten games.
Since the end of November, there have been exactly three clean sheets, which is definitely not what a stable defense looks like. Even more interesting to me is the fact that they have only won twice away from home since the beginning of November.
It is therefore not at all advantageous that the decisive match against Mirandes will not be played in their own stadium. The last time they managed to keep a clean sheet away from home was on November 23.
Curiously, Racing Santander is second in the away table, even though the Racinguistas have a negative goal difference of -2! In six league games, including the first leg of the semi-final, they have always conceded in the first half.
It is therefore only logical that I recommend the bet “Mirandes will score in the first half,” which is available at Betano at odds of 1.93. However, Racing has only conceded more than two goals before halftime twice this season.
Of course, it would help if Mirandes were one of their favorite opponents. However, with just one win in their last nine encounters, I can’t say that’s the case, and they haven’t won away from home in four games.
However, the head-to-head record is not the main factor. According to our best bookmakers, it should be a relatively close game anyway, as neither team can really pull away, even in the betting markets.
A Santander win has average odds of 3.30, while a home win is priced at 2.20. Of course, Mirandes has home advantage on its side, but the late, unfortunate equalizer will have taken its toll on nerves.
The Rojillos managed to qualify for the La Liga 2 play-offs thanks to a comeback, with five wins and a draw underlining that the team had their nerves under control in the decisive phase.
I’ll tell you one very important thing right away: Mirandes was the strongest home team in the league in 2024/25. Defeats? Just one! At the beginning of October last year, they lost 0-1 to Granada.
They conceded 15 goals at home, which is also an impressive statistic. But anyone who thinks that Mirandes regularly ends its home games with landslide victories or goal fests is sorely mistaken.
Only one home win had a lead of more than two goals, and the team has not managed to go into halftime with a lead in six home games.
The double chance X2 after the first 45 minutes won’t get you the absolutely bombastic odds, but at least Betano is still offering 1.42.
Incidentally, Mirandes has been behind at home at half-time four times, but has managed to avoid defeat on three occasions. The team did not exactly shine in attack in the first leg against Santander, scoring three goals from five shots on target.
Both teams are just one step away from the final, so the pressure is mounting. Mirandes squandered a 2-0 lead in the first leg of the semi-final, but now has the chance to seal the deal in its own stadium.
That suits the Racinguistas, who have lost only once at home this season. On the other hand, I noticed that Santander lacks any kind of authority when playing away from home.
Given these factors, I can’t imagine Mirandes crying tears of disappointment on Thursday. In summary, my prediction is:
Mirandes will beat Santander!
