Conference League, round of 16, first leg, Thursday, 06/03/2025 at 6:45 PM
It took a penalty shootout for Molde to beat Shamrock Rovers. The Irish underdog was one of the surprises of the Conference League season, but has now been eliminated by FK. For Molde, the journey continues in the round of 16.
The question is, how long? The upcoming opponent is not without it! In my Molde Legia Warsaw betting tip, I don’t have the home win on the slip of paper, but I am pleased with the lucrative odds for the “double chance X2” from Bet-at-home.
At home, Molde actually lost the first leg against Rovers 0-1. Anyone who had that on their screen is ten times richer for the stake. Nevertheless, it was not enough to advance, even though Molde collected two red cards in the games.
While Valdemar Lund is back in the round of 16, Isak Helstad Amundsen will be missing from the center of defense. Serious suspensions, because in addition to the injury-related absence of Casper Oycann, it’s getting pretty thin in the chain.
In addition, Veton Berisha and Johan Bakke are missing. There is another important argument for me that I think little of the 2.10 odds for Molde. The domestic league is still in hibernation. It won’t continue in Europe’s far north until the end of March.
As is well known, the Eliteserien is not played over two years due to the cold winter, which is a clear disadvantage in international business. Although test matches are constantly taking place, they are not comparable to an active league, in terms of competitive rhythm.
I think it’s more likely that Legia will go back with a win as their starting point, and we get a whopping 3.40 odds for that, and 3.50 for the draw. So it’s clear that anyone who wants to take the “double chance X2” can rub their hands here.
In my opinion, the 1.68 is too high. Especially since the guests do not have the personnel shortages of the Molder team. Only the young player Jan Leszczynski is missing on the wing, but he is a long-term injury for which head coach Goncalo Feio has long since found a solution.
Legia, however, are trailing in the Ekstraklasa, lying in fourth place, eight points behind the leaders and six behind a Conference League place. Winning the title in the cup is more likely. They will face a second division team in the semi-finals.
The team’s strength lies in their offense, 43 goals in 23 games, only Jagiellonia are ahead of them by one goal. Compared to the top teams, however, they have conceded too many goals to be able to seriously challenge for the title, with a whopping 29 goals landing in the Legia goal.
And their current form? In the clash of the top attacks, Warsaw won 3:1 in the cup quarter-finals and then managed the same result in the league against bottom-placed Slask.
Away from home, the capital city team are still waiting for their first highlight, having lost their first two away games. In general, their home games have been much more successful than their away games on Polish soil.
In the Conference League, things look different: six points at home and away from a total of six games, booking their place in the last 16. Only the top clubs of Florence and Chelsea scored more goals in that time.
By comparison, Molde only just made the top 24, conceded twice as many goals as Legia and pushed three balls less over the line. And after Shamrock Rovers, a test against Norwegian second division side Ranheim followed, which only ended 1-1.
There is a lack of serious tasks in the last few weeks to get up to speed against Warsaw.
In any case, the guests have a bit more individual quality in their team, and they are also taking advantage of the Portuguese head coach’s connection to Sporting, having strengthened in defense with Ruben Vinagre alongside Vladen Kovacevic. At Winamax, you can get 1.80 odds for Warsaw to advance, which I think is a great bet. Finally, I expect at least a draw away with the “double chance” X2. There is also an outstanding sports betting bonus waiting there.
You can get up to 100 euros in free bets. In addition, as an official partner of VfB Stuttgart, you benefit from tax-free odds and the insight into how often selections have been played in a market, and I am a little surprised by that.
A whopping 90 percent have opted for the Molde odds, and the situation is similar in the double chance market, where “1X” dominates. I tend to agree with the community on the frequently played goal of both teams at 1.60.
Legia have only kept a clean sheet in one of their last eight matches. Ultimately, however, the FK did not even score against the Shamrock Rovers at home, so I much prefer the “X2” at a higher odds!
Conclusion: Molde is lacking in competitive rhythm, which we saw clearly against the Shamrock Rovers, against whom FK really struggled. Legia have bagged two 3-1 wins in their last two games, including a ticket to the cup semi-finals.
The team has momentum and, unlike the hosts, can call on the entire first team. Against the strong Polish offense, two important central defenders are missing for the Norwegians.
For me, there is really little or nothing in favor of Molde here, because Legia have not been weak away from home internationally this season either.
My Molde Legia Warsaw betting tip: Double chance X2.
