Champions League, Thursday, 19.09.2024 at 21:00
Hansi Flick has already won the Champions League with FC Bayern. He failed to achieve success with the national team, but got off to a rocket start with his team as the new head coach of FC Barcelona.
The first match in the premier class is scheduled for Thursday at AS Monaco. The team from the wealthy city-state has also started the new season well and goes into its first home game with a much wider squad in midfield.
Like the bookmakers, I see Barcelona ahead, but I think that there will be a fire at the back from time to time due to the absences. That’s why I’m opting for the goal of both teams at Oddset.
Dani Olmo was also brought in from Leipzig to strengthen the midfield of the ex-Messi teams due to the sometimes lengthy absences. The Spaniard was in the team three times and contributed three goals. He has now been injured in the Catalan derby and will miss a month
Fick no longer has many options. In addition to Olmo, Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Fermin Lopez and Marc Bernal are also currently unavailable in midfield. Just three midfielders are listed.
The bookmaker prediction
Let’s take a look at the 1X2 market. As already mentioned, Barcelona is ahead, at 1.85. However, there is no question of full conviction, for example with the oddsmakers of the Betano app.
Monaco, like the draw, are given odds of around 4.20. I don’t think the double chance 1X at 2.10 is bad at all. Ultimately, however, I’m distancing myself from the initial markets in this match.
The market is too hot and unpredictable for me due to Barca’s personnel situation.
KI prediction Monaco – Barcelona: ChatGPT
The AI sees it similarly, knows Barcelona’s dream starting results, but actually suggests a win for the hosts at 4.70 as a high-risk bet. After all, Monaco have won three of their first four league games.
Ultimately, the bet is too hot for the odds on offer. I have a 2:2 or 3:2 in mind for Barcelona. I’m not a fan of high odds with a low probability of occurrence anyway, I generally like the ChatGPT variants for medium and low risk better.
The artificial intelligence serves up Robert Lewandowski’s goal as a medium risk variant. The odds scratch the 2.00 mark, at Sunmaker a 1.91 is offered. Lewandowski works well under Flick, already at Bayern.
Under his leadership, RL9 broke the record for the most goals in a Bundesliga season. In 2020/21, the Polish superstar scored 41 goals and surpassed Gerd Müller’s goal mark. In the Barcelona shirt, he has already contributed four goals under Flick’s guidance and set up two more.
The AI didn’t pick a bad odds, especially as the experienced striker also scores the penalties for the Catalans. Over 2.5 goals allow for odds around the 1.50 mark, I think this bet is clearly the best of all AI predictions!
Analysis: Monaco vs. Barcelona
In the first few weeks, it was primarily Barcelona’s offense that caused a stir. 17 goals in four league games, and four players have already netted three or more goals.
Four goals conceded is also a strong figure in view of the numerous goals, but ultimately Barcelona have only been able to keep a clean sheet in one of their four matches with their power soccer.
This is another reason why the goal of both teams is the perfect tip in my eyes. A home game for the four-time Champions League winners would have been too risky for me, but an away game in Monaco will make it very difficult to keep the clean sheet this time.
Monaco have the right to take something from one of their four home games, have scored in all of their games so far and Marc-Andre ter Stegen has had to make one save in each of his three away appearances.
Quotenanalyse
The opponents have not been completely lacking in chances either. For sports betting fans who like it a little higher, Betano Bet Builder could also combine the goal of both teams at over 2.5 goals. When it comes to over-goal odds, no betting provider can beat Betano.
This combination allows a 1.78, which is even slightly higher than the pre-made variant. In general, I would always recreate combinations myself, as there are actually more frequent differences in odds.
Betano also offers you a free bet of 20 euros as starting capital once you have successfully verified your account. This means you can get started without depositing real money!
Monaco vs Barcelona odds: Advantage Monaco in terms of squad depth
I’ve already talked about the injury problem for the visitors. How does the Monegasque squad look? Much better. Only reserve Edan Diop is missing from the squad.
Philipp Köhn will stand between the posts, with two German-speaking goalkeepers on the pitch. Number one Radoslaw Majecki is still struggling with an ankle injury.
Ultimately, Adi Hütter has much more choice, especially in midfield. Especially as Barcelona are not only lacking in midfield, but are also short of central defenders without Ronald Araujo and Andreas Christensen.
The home goal for Monaco at 1.34 is therefore a no-brainer for me.
Two teams who know how to create chances
But Barcelona are also hungry for goals again. In the first five La Liga games, Flick’s team created a whopping 129 goals, by far the highest figure of any team, with 25.8 chances per match.
And the club was only allowed to score twice at home. They also had a strong conversion rate of 13.2, with only Celta Vigo and Osasuna making better use of their opportunities.
Although Monaco have just 7.4%, with 95 chances they are considered the greediest team in Ligue 1 after PSG, far exceeding the 20 chances per game mark.
Monaco and Barcelona do not have a great history together, Monaco are not considered the regulars par excellence in the Champions League, but I am somewhat surprised that the teams have only met once internationally.
Back then, Barcelona came out on top in both games, not even conceding a goal in a 2-0 home win and a 1-0 away victory.
However, the last time they met was in a friendly match last August, which ASM surprisingly won 3-0. A similar result is unlikely this time around, especially as Barca are extremely good offensively.
Finally, I’d like to take a look at the coaching duel. Flick versus Hütter, we’ve had this four times before, when they were coaches of Bayern and Frankfurt, Flick leads 3-1. His team only lost when SGE won at home to Munich shortly before the end of his tenure.
In view of the absences, I’m curious to see Flick’s system of play. So far, the 4-2-3-1 has been the tried and tested system, which he will probably stick to against Monaco. Hütter has used the same formation in recent games.
My Monaco Barcelona tip:
Barcelona are playing strong attacking soccer under new coach Flick. Despite the absences, the Catalans have made a strong start to the season, winning all their games and scoring by far the most goals in the league. However, they only kept a clean sheet in one of five league games.
Following the loss of Olmo in the Catalan derby against Girona, they will nominally play with three midfielders against a goal-hungry AS Monaco, who are well aware of the situation surrounding the visitors’ struggling squad. The club also have the most goals in Ligue 1 after PSG and have scored every time so far.
I expect Monaco to go all out to get something from their first of four home games, while at the same time having to withstand a top-form attack from Lewandowski and Co. That leads me to the following bet.
My Monaco Barcelona prediction: Both teams to score
