Monaco – PSG Tip Champions League, playoffs, first leg on Tuesday, 17.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
A few days ago, I could hardly believe my eyes when the Parisians missed one top-class goal after another and suffered an unexpected 3-1 defeat at Stade Rennais. Are they now threatened with the next faux pas in the principality?
I have evaluated the chances of both teams, their recent appearances as well as the odds of the bookmakers and therefore consider a courageous but well-founded Monaco PSG tip on a draw to be appropriate. There are also impressive betting odds of about 4.50.
Paris Saint-Germain is simply not to be trusted at the moment, while the Monegasques usually show a mostly stable style of play, which could well cause problems for the guests.
My Monaco PSG tip is a premiere in a way. Although the two clubs know each other well, they will meet for the first time in a European competition on Tuesday.
So far, Monaco has only played once against another French club in a major European Cup. Back then, they lost 3-2 on aggregate to Marseille in the 1998/99 UEFA Cup round of 16.
Monaco – PSG Prediction & Betting
I think the Monegasques’ defence has a good chance of holding its own against the Parisians’ superstar-studded attacking line. That’s why a corresponding Monaco PSG tip adorns my betting slip.
PSG under 1.5 goals turns a euro into an average of 2.5 and is particularly promising as the Monegasques have kept a clean sheet until the final whistle in their last three Champions League home games against Juventus, Galatasaray and even Tottenham.
PSG scores a goal in both halves – no to odds around 1.67 is the somewhat safer option at Betano Germany in comparison, but it also knows how to appeal to me.
Luis Enrique’s team has only achieved this feat twice in the last eight competitive games. If they are as wasteful with their chances as they were against Rennes, then they could even go away empty-handed this time!
What you need to know about Monaco vs. PSG betting
- Monaco’s efficiency crisis: With only eight goals, Monaco has the weakest offense of the qualified teams. A paradoxical value, since the Monegasques should have scored 14 goals according to xG statistics.
- Despite a disappointing eleventh place in the league phase, Paris is warned. In the previous season, they started a furious hunt from 15th place, which only ended with the 5-0 final victory against Inter Milan and the title.
- Spectacle is pre-programmed. In six of PSG’s eight Champions League games so far, three or more goals have been scored. With 21 goals, the Parisians also have one of the most dangerous attacks in the competition.
- Vitinha in goal-scoring style: The Portuguese is the tournament’s most dangerous central midfielder with five goals and, with 26 shots, is almost as likely to finish as Erling Haaland (28).
Monaco – PSG: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
In contrast to me, our Monaco PSG AI prediction assumes a 1-1 draw in the worst case as far as the “spectacle” is concerned, as my digital bettor recommends the selection of both teams to meet. But actually his tendency is clearly towards 2:2 or 3:3.
Incidentally, this is justified by the fact that the Parisians alone were able to score an average of 2.63 Champions League goals per game during the league phase. However, I am not completely convinced.
In the playoff first leg, I expect a more cautious approach on both sides. In addition, the manageable BTS odds of 1.60 on average don’t exactly trigger euphoria in me anyway!
On the other hand, I fully agree with the second computer-generated suggestion – namely 1st half: Under 1.5 goals. The AI suggestion based on this 2nd half: highest-scoring half at odds around 1.90 also arouses my interest.
Both teams actually tend to approach the first half of the game cautiously. PSG have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 Ligue 1 visits before the break, and the Monegasques aren’t exactly known for sparking a goal inferno before the break.
In the second half in the 2025/26 season, Monaco scored an average of 1.27 goals per competitive game, but before the change of sides it was only 0.73 so far.
The best odds for Monaco vs. PSG
Apparently, the bookmakers have somewhat lost sight of the narrow defeat of the guests in November in the principality, because the Monaco PSG odds seem surprisingly clear in favor of the Parisians despite this history.
A home win at Monaco PSG odds is valued at 5.20. The markets recognize the home strength of the Fürstenclub. However, they do not expect the Monegasques to dominate the game or to put the favoured guests in serious trouble.
The draw in the playoff first leg, on the other hand, is 4.80. Especially when Monaco keeps the game open early on and PSG doesn’t immediately dictate the pace. But it is anything but the most likely scenario.
An away win for PSG is 1.52. The markets rely on the individual class, experience and stability of the French. PSG is considered the clear favourite, the three points are considered realistic, almost expected.
The Monaco PSG odds reflect a duel in which AS only has outsider chances despite home advantage, while PSG is clearly given the upper hand. Wrongly, as I personally think!
Monaco vs PSG Match Analysis:
The championship question has long been settled for Monaco. Because in the domestic table, they are a whopping 23 points behind PSG.
In this Champions League first leg, however, the Monegasques will have the opportunity to make a small statement and spit in the soup of the favourites, at least on the international stage!
I expect Monaco to be very concentrated defensively and rarely let the Parisians get really dangerous in front of goal. After all, it is no coincidence that the defending champions lost 1-0 on their last visit to the Stade Louis II a few months ago.
If PSG are as wasteful with their scoring chances on Tuesday as they were against Rennes, and Dembele only gets a mediocre performance, then the home side could hold a 0-0 for a surprisingly long time. Maybe even until the end!
Despite the attacking quality of the Parisians, my analysis of the latest data actually suggests that Monaco is well organised defensively and could keep the game open for a long time.
Monaco Form Check
Monaco will face PSG again. In November, Monaco beat the Parisians 1-0 in Ligue 1 – the first win against PSG after eight unsuccessful attempts.
Despite this success and a flawless home record in the Champions League, the Parisians are still considered favorites for the upcoming game. However, Monaco’s ability to score regularly against PSG could give the hosts confidence.
In the last ten meetings, the overall record is 18-13 for PSG, who average 1.80 goals per game. Nevertheless, Monaco will look back on the victory less than three months ago to push themselves even further ahead of Tuesday!
Meanwhile, Eric Dier and Mohammed Salisu will still be missing from AS. Regular goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky will also be out for several weeks and will not be able to play against Paris.
In 2026, however, there were more tough setbacks to deal with: Takumi Minamino suffered a cruciate ligament rupture shortly after New Year’s Day, while Kassoum Ouattara suffered a moderate injury!
PSG Form Check
PSG travels to the Principality for the playoff first leg after an eventful league phase. This season, three or more goals have been scored in six of the Parisians’ eight Champions League games.
In total, they have scored 21 goals – only three teams have scored more – and conceded 11 goals in the process, an average of 1.38 per game.
These numbers point to an exciting and high-scoring game. In the current Champions League season, the “European champions” have only lost twice so far. At Sporting in Portugal and at home against Bayern Munich (record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).
Coach Luis Enrique must continue to watch out for Senny Mayulu, who has been struggling with physical problems since the game against Rennes and will be examined again before kick-off. Fabian Ruiz, on the other hand, is still in the process of rebuilding and cannot be used against Monaco.
Quentin Ndjantou, meanwhile, has successfully completed his surgery and is now starting rehabilitation, but will be out for some time.
PSG will therefore rely on their well-rehearsed attack on Tuesday, while the defence must remain vigilant at all times against Monaco’s quick counterattacks.
