Serie A, Friday, 23.05.2025 at 20:45
Serie A is getting a heart-stopping finale! Napoli goes into the last matchday one point ahead of Inter Milan, with both teams playing at the same time on Friday. Will Napoli have a decisive advantage due to their home game?
The Sky Blues have shown some surprising nerves lately – and that’s exactly why I want to tell you in my Napoli Cagliari prediction why I’m betting on a 3-0 handicap for the visitors – because they have already secured their place in the league.
The decision will be made on the last matchday, which is what everyone wants – except if you’re a fan of Inter Milan or SSC Napoli. Napoli are currently at the top of the table, but their lead is only one point.
Important to know: In Serie A, a special rule applies in the event of a tie. If SSC loses and Inter gets a point, there will be a playoff between the two teams for the title.
Napoli cannot afford to let it come down to a tie either way; if they win on Friday, it’s all over. To be honest, the team has not shown its most stable side in recent weeks.
They couldn’t get past a 0-0 draw against Parma, and the 2-2 draw against Genoa wasn’t the result they wanted either. Luck was on the side of the Sky Blues, because their rivals Inter conceded a penalty in the last minute, otherwise they would have overtaken them.
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1-0 against Lecce and Monza, 2-0 against Turin, only three goals since mid-January – I can’t exactly say that Napoli is playing the competition into the ground. They have scored 57 goals, while Inter has 20 more to their name.
With 27 goals conceded, the club has the best defense in the league. Only four wins in the entire season have seen them win by three or more goals, and since round four, they have only managed this feat twice.
The league leaders are not known for clear-cut victories, as their home statistics clearly show. 13 goals conceded? Best in the league. 30 goals scored? Seven teams have scored more.
Looking at the last ten games, it is striking that they have only conceded once in the first half. This season, there is no lone star in attack, as Victor Osimhen once was.
Romelu Lukaku is the top scorer with 13 goals. Is it worth betting on “under 2.5 goals for Napoli”? Yes, it is! At Winamax, the odds are a strong 1.86.
What about Cagliari Calcio as a rival? Can we talk about a favorite opponent here? Napoli has lost exactly once since 2009, which sounds positive.
On closer inspection, however, it becomes apparent that all that glitters is not gold. 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-1 – their last home games have been anything but clear-cut. What’s more, they haven’t managed to win two games in a single season since 2018/19 – an interesting fact after their 4-0 win in the first half of the season.
According to our ApplePay bookmakers, the favorites should still come out on top on Friday. The average odds are only 1.20, while the visitors are at 17.0.
Cagliari can at least play without pressure, as relegation is no longer an issue. What is immediately noticeable, however, is the high number of defeats, with 19 games ending without a point.
The results of the team from the deep south of Italy are very mixed. What they have not managed to do once in 2024/25 is win two games in a row – and most recently they lost 3-0 to Venezia.
Hellas Verona, Monza, and Parma are the three clubs that have won away from home. All three are still behind Cagliari in the table. The results against the top teams in Serie A are also interesting, of course.
0-3 and 1-3 against Inter, 0-0 and 0-1 against Atalanta, 1-1 and 0-1 against Juventus, and 0-4 against Napoli in the first half of the season. There have been no wins against the best teams, and defeats can be both narrow and clear-cut.
I would also like to mention that they have scored before half-time in each of their last five games. If you want to bet on Cagliari scoring in the first half, you can do so at Winamax at odds of 3.90!
Napoli can crown themselves Italian champions in 2025 in front of their own fans on Friday, and there could be no greater motivation for the players. But: Their nerves have been on edge twice in a row recently.
Napoli are not known for their high-scoring victories; instead, the team scores points with the best defense in the country. Cagliari, the visitors, can play freely, as they no longer have any sporting goals to pursue.
Accordingly, I expect the pressure on the home side to be quite visible. Since Cagliari does not concede many goals away from home, I am going for the following bet:
A 3-0 handicap will secure an “away win”!
