US Open, semi-finals, Friday, 06.09.2024, 01:00
After Iga Swiatek’s quarter-final exit, Aryna Sabalenka is now the big favorite to win the US Open title. She is in impressive form in New York. The fast surface suits her power tennis. She has only lost one set so far.
However, it will be more uncomfortable for her in the Arthur Ashe Stadium this time. She will be up against local hero Emma Navarro. It remains to be seen how she deals with the clear away role at the biggest tennis venue.
Ultimately, however, I see a clear difference in quality and in my Navarro Sabalenka betting tip I expect the next Sabalenka success and use the Bet365 betting configurator to add that there will be no tiebreak
Sabalenka and hard court, that just fits. She has played 34 matches on the surface this year, winning 28. A fantastic record for the 26-year-old, who has already claimed the Grand Slam title in Melbourne this year, her second.
She reached the final of the US Open in 2023, but was unable to crown herself the tournament winner against Coco Gauff. Her nerves were on edge against the young American. One careless mistake after another led to her defeat in the final.
How will she deal with playing against an acclaimed local heroine in the packed Arthur Ashe Stadium this time? Sabalenka made a leap in 2024. She also won against a US-American in the semi-finals last year
However, I don’t dare to go for the 2:0 for the two of the world, which is 1.62 in the Oddset app. Sabalenka is the clear favorite with odds around 1.20, Navarro has been assigned 4.30. She is about to play the most important match of her career.
After all, she is only 23 years old and has only been regularly competing in the big tournaments since the French Open last year, having already had her first taste of Grand Slam action at the US Open in 2021 via a wild card.
She has already met Sabalenka twice and was able to beat the 1.82-meter tall Eastern European on hard court. A 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 victory in Indian Wells. Sabalenka successfully returned the favor in the round of 16 of the French Open: 6-2, 6-3.
With the score at 1:1, the semi-finals of the US Open are now underway. I see clear advantages for the favorite on the fast surface in New York. Indian Wells is still known for being one of the very slow hard courts.
Daniil Medvedev even described the courts at the facility as “clay courts” due to the slow pace. At the US Open, Sabalenka, who has significantly improved her winner/unforced errors ratio over the years, can get more out of her powerful strokes.
Her serve is a dangerous weapon. She has only conceded four service games in the entire tournament. At the same time, she has taken 20 from her opponents. Sabalenka is also strong on the return, trying to seize the rally with the very first shot
Navarro will also have to nibble at this, although she also has good service values, but struggled a little more overall. Her victory over last year’s winner Gauff in the round of 16 caused quite a stir.
She had to go into the third set against her two top-ranked opponents, Paula Badosa, Arantxa Rus and Anna Blinkova had to pack their tennis bags after just two sets.
A few more facts about my bet. Sabalenka has a winning streak of ten matches, before New York she triumphed at the Masters in Cincinnati.
She has not played a tiebreak in 20 hard court matches in a row. Navarro also went without one at the last major of the year. The direct duel also failed to produce a 7-6 result.
My Navarro Sabalenka tip
Sabalenka’s shoulder problems are a thing of the past, 14 wins from the last 16 matches with a tournament victory at the Masters in Cincinnati speak for themselves and she now has a win streak of ten matches.
She lost to Navarro in Indian Wells during a short period of weakness, but got her revenge at the French Open. She won 22 of 26 points on her first serve and took 14 of 17 points from Navarro on her second serve!
In top form, Sabalenka is a size too big for the still young American. The fast conditions suit the Belarusian, who was in the final here last year and the semi-final two years previously, better.
There have been no tiebreaks in the direct duels or in the first five US Open rounds.
That’s why my tip is: Sabalenka wins & no tiebreak
