Premier League Matchday 27, Wednesday, 26.02.2025 at 20:30
Nottingham were in danger of being beaten by Newcastle at the weekend, but were ultimately able to counter and almost take a point at the last minute. In the end, it was 3:4 from the Tricky Trees’ point of view.
They’re starting to put the pressure on from behind. So it’s all the more important to score now. But a tough game lies ahead in the English week. The runners-up in the table are the visitors.
Defensively, what has been on offer recently has often been disastrous, which is why I assume that Arsenal will take at least one point with them, I also add the “Over 1.5 goals” using Oddset’s betting configurator.
Three defeats from the last four matches. Given their current form, it’s clear that the surprise third-placed team of the Premier League season could still slip out of the top places.
I can even imagine that they won’t even qualify for a European competition in the end. It’s only five points clear of eighth place, for example, and things are really tight behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
The oddsmakers’ forecast
Due to the hosts’ collapse, visitors Arsenal start Wednesday’s match as slight favorites at 1.98, according to the oddsmakers. The oddsmakers have calculated 3.90 for Nottingham.
And the draw? The Londoners’ success appeals to me, but ultimately my own defeat at home to West Ham at the weekend (0:1) has finally put me off, which is why I have built a combination from the “double chance X2” position.
Analysis: Nottingham v Arsenal
At least my overall odds of 1.71 are pretty close to Arsenal’s single win odds and I’m backing a draw as long as there are at least two goals.
A low-scoring affair would surprise me greatly and I say that despite the visitors’ lack of attacking players. After all, Arsenal go into the match without a real center forward.
Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are out with long-term injuries and the wings are also thin on the ground with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli out. Midfielder Mikel Merino took on the role of nine-man at the weekend.
He scored the last two Arsenal goals in the 2-0 win over Leicester City. But even with the improvised attack without a skilled attacker in the center, a point should definitely be possible.
Mikel Arteta’s side are more stable in defense in particular, with seven of their last eight opponents keeping their goal tally in single figures.
Arsenal have only conceded more than one goal once in their last 13 Premier League games
Rating Analysis
And what about Nottingham? They don’t have any personnel worries up front, but they’ve fallen off the pace. 0:5 against Bournemouth, 1:2 against Fulham and a 3:4 against Newcastle. The team conceded a third of its goals for the season in these games.
Added to this was a poor performance in the FA Cup against underdogs Exeter, who could only be defeated on penalties and created a few dangerous chances.
The 7-0 win against Brighton provided a temporary high, but that was almost a month ago. The problems against the ball clearly made the difference for me in this matchup.
Nevertheless, the away win is just too tricky for me, as Nottingham score quite reliably and I can well imagine a 2:2 or 3:3. Therefore, I can recommend the “Over 1.5 Arsenal goals” at an already higher 2.10 more.
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Strong odds for the goal of both teams
In addition, Winamax flexes its muscles with high but tax-free odds. Another plus point: each betting market shows in percentages how often which selection was played.
Arsenal is ahead with 58 percent, ahead of the draw with 31 percent. In addition, the visitors’ win is a “HOT” tip, i.e. a bet that has been placed more frequently in the betting slip by users recently.
Incidentally, this also includes the goal for both teams, which in my opinion is far too high. We get a 1.92, which is due to the fact that Arsenal have the best defense in the Premier League.
Arsenal have conceded around 100 fewer goals than Nottingham over the 26 games. The Gunners also received the fewest balls directly on goal in the league comparison.
And how does the AI, with all its data in the background, assess the situation? Like me, it sees a high-scoring affair and would go for the “over 2.5 goals” classic as individual odds. It’s at a whopping 2.05 odds!
Since Arsenal have done well in the direct comparisons, it’s also not averse to adding the Arsenal win for 3.20. After all, Arsenal won both pre-season matches and recorded a clear 3-0 win in the first leg.
A good middle solution, which I would like to add at this point, is the “Over 2.5 goals” variant with the goal of both teams for a 2.50. If we include the “X2” as a third component here, it even becomes a 3.30!
My tip:
Yes, Nottingham has only lost twice at home, but Arsenal can show the same statistics away from home. Overall, I think the defensive work will make the difference ahead of this match.
Nottingham have conceded a third of their total goals for the season in their last three league defeats, while Arsenal have conceded no more than one in 12 of their last 13.
Despite an injury-ravaged offense, I’m convinced that the Gunners can at least maintain their six-point lead, maybe even extend it. As the AI and I have independently determined, there should be a few more goals.
My Nottingham Arsenal prediction: Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals
