NBA Playoffs 2024/25, 2nd Round, Game 6, Friday, 16.05.2025, 02:30 PM
I have one eye on the ESC winner odds and the other on the NBA Finals and especially this pairing, which I expect to be the overall winner.
I have written a Nuggets Thunder betting tip for you that is prepared for all eventualities. I could be successful even if Denver should once again come up just short.
The Thunder snatched the match point – but the evening in OKC was anything but a total crash for Denver.
Quite the opposite: Game 5 saw a Nuggets team that was the better team for long stretches and in which Nikola Jokić in particular looked like the three-time MVP he is again.
44 points, 15 rebounds, 17 of 25 from the field, 5 of 7 from the three-point line – Jokić was a force of nature. And the fact that he still ended up empty-handed was less down to his performance than to the collective offensive collapse of his colleagues.
He was left completely alone in crunch time. Over seven minutes in the final quarter without a field goal – that breaks your back in every game.
What Game 5 also showed, however: If Jokić delivers, the foundation is there for a Nuggets win.
The Thunder had to unpack all their weapons to survive this evening – Shai worked his magic again, Dort suddenly scored, Jalen Williams drained the decisive three-pointer – and yet it was a game on a knife’s edge until 90 seconds to go.
And that despite the fact that Denver seemed paralyzed offensively in the fourth quarter.
Things will be very different for Denver at home in Game 6. First, because so-called role players like Porter Jr, Gordon or KCP have more reliable scoring percentages there. Secondly, because Murray usually unpacks his best version of himself in the ball arena.
And third, because the Thunder can’t walk that fine line of efficiency forever. The toughness and discipline they showed in Game 5 was impressive – but at some point it gets tight when you always have to rise above yourself to even win close games.
What you also have to remember: The Nuggets have bounced back after a tough start to the season and some defensive problems. The gameplan was actually good – they had an eight-point lead midway through the fourth quarter.
The fact that they then conceded the game is annoying, but not a sign of structural failure. Rather, it was a mixture of tiredness, a lack of rhythm from the shooters and a few clever plays by the Thunder.
But hey, this is playoff basketball. Denver has now seen what isn’t working – and will make the appropriate adjustments in the home game.
More movement off the ball, better screens, clear rotations. Malone knows that he has to deliver now, and this team has regularly done that in the past when things got serious.
On possible player bets: Jokić will deliver again, you can be sure of that. With his back to the wall in a game like this? The man loves this stage.
So expect 30+ points, double-digit rebounds and more than five assists from the Serb again.
Murray will also improve because Dort can’t play like a terrier on defense and like Klay Thompson on offense every game.
And even if Porter Jr. doesn’t look like a reliable scorer at the moment, the knot will burst at some point. Maybe it’ll be enough for two or three threes – that’s all it takes when Jokić is so dominant.
Nuggets Thunder tip: Denver win, classic, odds around 2.65 to 2.70 – that’s almost a gift for a home game of the 2022/2023 champions with such a dominant Jokić.
If you are braver, you can combine the whole thing with a Jokić Over 30.5 points, where you get Nuggets Thunder odds in the range of 4.20 to 4.40, depending on the bookmaker.
The Nuggets have the best player in the series, the better depth – and they know how to deliver in must-win games.
One thing is clear: the Nuggets know what’s at stake. If they lose this thing, that’s it for the title dream. But that’s the stuff this team is made of.
A home game, a raucous arena, a focus Jokić in MVP form and a coaching staff that knows how to react to defeats – that’s the setup in which Denver traditionally delivers.
The Thunder have now won twice at home – but a different wind is blowing in the Ball Arena. That’s where we’ll have to see if they’re really ready to knock the Kings of the West off their throne.
I think: Not yet. Denver isn’t ready yet.
