Olympiakos – Leverkusen Tip Champions League, playoffs, first leg on Wednesday, 18.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
In the Champions League play-off first leg, Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to lay the foundation for a place in the round of 16 with a strong performance at Olympiacos Piraeus.
Incidentally, the Bundesliga club has the opportunity to settle an open score with the Greeks. In the preliminary round, Leverkusen surprisingly lost 2-0 in Piraeus and ultimately squandered the chance to advance to the top 8.
In my Olympiakos Leverkusen tip, I take aim at the classic “Both teams to score” at odds around 1.65. That also has something directly to do with Leverkusen’s form curve. Since the bankruptcy in Piraeus, Bayer have not lost and have collected five wins in addition to a draw.
After a period of weakness, Bayer Leverkusen are back in top form just in time for the hot phase in the Champions League. The recent 4-0 win in the Bundesliga against St. Pauli should have given enough self-confidence to be dominant against Olympiakos.
In addition, Piraeus has not been able to shine recently. In the last four games, only one win has been achieved. I therefore don’t believe that the Greeks can put in a similarly concentrated performance as in the recent duel with Bayer. More than a goal should hardly be possible for Piraeus in general.
Olympiakos – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
I’m going to lean out of the window a bit and claim that Leverkusen dominate the game from the start. My first betting alternative is therefore “Bayer leads at half-time” to a strong odds around 3.35.
I also find the bet “Leverkusen over 1.5 goals” strong. The odds are offered by the German bookmakers at about 2.40. The fact is that Bayer have scored at least three goals in four of their last five games.
What you need to consider when betting on Olympiacos vs. Leverkusen
- Olympiacos Piraeus have ended their longest winning streak in the regular Champions League with three wins in a row. In addition, Olympiakos have won the home game in six of the last seven European ties with two legs.
- Bayer Leverkusen are not one of the most dangerous teams in the UEFA Champions League offensively. With only 13 goals and an average of 4.50 shots on target per game, the yield is low – despite a high pass volume of 548.25 passes per game (sixth in the league). However, a large part of the possession takes place in their own half.
- Both Olympiacos and Leverkusen have conceded more goals than they have scored after eight games in the current Champions League season. Both are among only eight teams to achieve this feat and still qualify for the knockout phase.
- In attack, the Greeks rely mainly on Ayoub El Kaabi and Mehdi Taremi. The duo scored 23 goals in domestic competition this season, plus two goals each on the European stage. Taremi also scored in the last meeting in January, when Olympiakos recorded a 2-0 victory.
Olympiakos – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model takes a close look at the playoff appearances of the German Bundesliga teams. A well-founded Olympiakos Leverkusen AI prediction is the logical consequence.
In the first tip, the AI makes use of the different form curves. While Bayer has been convincing recently, Olympiakos has had to lose feathers. The fact that the odds for “Leverkusen to win” are still around 2.80 is of course a real gift.
“Over 2.5 Goals” is the second selection of the AI. And I can do something with this too. Bayer have been convincing offensively recently and Olympiakos can always be expected to score at home. The odds around 1.90 therefore justify the risk.
Just like me, the AI doesn’t trust the Greeks to make an outstanding appearance. “Olympiakos under 1.5 goals” is rewarded with odds of about 1.60. Don’t forget: Piraeus have not even scored a goal in the last two games.
The best odds for Olympiacos vs. Leverkusen
The odds for Olympiacos against Leverkusen point to an even duel, with a slight advantage for the hosts. According to 1X2 Market, Olympiakos’ implied chance of winning is 44%, while Bayer Leverkusen is rated at 33% for an away win.
The Asian Handicap line is at Olympiakos -0.25. A victory for Olympiakos brings the full profit in this market. In the event of a tie, half of the stake on Olympiakos -0.25 will be refunded. Players on Leverkusen +0.25 earn half a win on a draw and a full win on every away win.
The Asian goal line is set at over/under 2.5 goals. A minimum of three goals is required for Over 2.5, while a maximum of two goals may be scored for Under 2.5.
Both Olympiacos Piraeus and Leverkusen have conceded more goals than goals of their own after eight games in the current Champions League season. Both are among only two of eight teams that have managed to reach the knockout phase despite a negative goal difference.
In the market for the Anytime goalscorer, the two Olympiakos attackers Ayoub El Kaabi and Mehdi Taremi lead the list.
Together, they have scored 23 goals in the league this season, plus two goals each on the European stage. Taremi also scored in the last meeting in January, when Olympiakos recorded a 2-0 victory.
Olympiacos vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
Olympiacos Piraeus are the slight favourites in this match, but Bayer Leverkusen are still considered the team that is expected to reach the round of 16.
Olympiakos celebrated their only home win of the league phase against Leverkusen, of all teams – but luck also played a role. Kasper Hjulmand’s team had 72% possession and allowed the Greek champions only two shots on target, both of which found their way into the net.
Olympiacos goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis made six saves and was voted Man of the Match. Leverkusen will be looking to take their chances much more consistently this time.
Leverkusen like to press high and are likely to dominate possession again despite their away role. Olympiacos had less possession than their opponents (42% on average) in six of their eight league games, which is why the hosts are expected to sit deep and absorb the pressure at first.
Despite the deliberate relinquishment of possession, Olympiakos regularly scores goals. In the league phase, the average was 13.25 shots on goal per game. Even though Olympiakos is likely to come under pressure over longer periods, the club remains a serious offensive threat on the counter.
It is a duel of contrasting styles of play, in which both teams have a realistic chance of winning the first leg – the best conditions for an exciting Champions League duel.
Olympiakos Form Check
Thanks to three wins in a row, Olympiakos have qualified for the Champions League play-offs – a success that seemed almost impossible after the first five games.
With victories against Kairat Almaty, Bayer Leverkusen and Ajax Amsterdam, the Greek champions secured a place in the knockout phase for the first time in twelve years.
With the three successive wins, Olympiakos also ended its longest winning streak in the regular Champions League. In addition, the club have won the home game in six of the last seven European Cup duels with two legs.
It is the first participation in the Champions League knockout phase since the 2013/14 season, with the first leg result against Leverkusen in particular being of decisive importance for the chances of qualifying.
Coach José Luis Mendilibar brings a wealth of international experience: he won the Europa League with Sevilla FC in 2023 and led Olympiakos to the UEFA Europa Conference League title in Athens in 2024.
In the domestic league, the team is still in the title race, so a place in the round of 16 of the Champions League would be a bonus – especially since Olympiakos last survived the group stage in 2013/14.
The 2-0 win against Leverkusen on Matchday 7 was also the first win after 14 competitive games against German teams in UEFA competitions. Previously, Olympiacos had only recorded one draw and twelve defeats in this period.
Leverkusen form check
Although the top 8 finish in the 2024/25 season was commendable, Bayer Leverkusen should hardly be too disappointed with their entry into the play-offs of the knockout phase.
In view of the sluggish start to the Champions League season – which was significantly influenced by the early change of coach from Erik ten Hag to Kasper Hjulmand – this outcome did not come as a surprise.
Two consecutive away wins at Benfica and Manchester City as well as a home draw against Newcastle United got Leverkusen back on track, but the defeat on Matchday 7 against Olympiakos dashed all hopes of a direct entry into the round of 16.
Although Leverkusen can look back on recent successes – the Bundesliga title in 2024 and reaching the Europa League final – their record in the UEFA Champions League remains weak, especially away from home.
Among all teams with at least ten knockout games in the Champions League, Bayer Leverkusen has the lowest win rate (11%). Only two wins from 19 games (four draws, 13 defeats) have been recorded. Last year, they also clearly failed against FC Bayern Munich with an aggregate result of 0:5.
Offensively, Leverkusen are not one of the most dangerous teams: only 13 goals and an average of 4.50 shots on target per game are on the books – despite a high pass volume of 548.25 passes per game (sixth place in the league). However, a large part of the possession takes place in their own half.
