La Liga, Matchday 33 on Thursday, 24.04.2025 at 19:00
European competition is still within reach for Osasuna (11th), with qualification for the Conference League just two points away.
FC Sevilla is on the guest list for the next matchday. The Nervionenses are stuck in the bottom third of the table (15th) and recently sacked their coach.
For my Osasuna Sevilla tip, I’ve picked a risky but attractive bet. I’m going for “Ante Budimir to score” at Bet365 at odds of 2.66.
In El Sadar, Osasuna should be slightly more favored in my opinion than the odds of around 2.50 for a Gorritxoak win suggest.
The hosts are not only unbeaten in their last four league games (2W, 2D), but have also built up some momentum with two wins in a row.
Sevilla, on the other hand, are disappointing once again this season and sacked their coach before their last game against Alaves (1-1).
For the fourth time in his life, 69-year-old Joaquin Caparros is now in charge of the Andalusian team, which is being offered odds of over 3.00 by German bookmakers.
If you are familiar with the bookmakers’ odds, you know that this match is likely to be low-scoring. Nevertheless, I would place my Bet365 betting bonus on a game with “over 2.5 goals.”
Osasuna has only kept five clean sheets this season and has only finished two games without conceding a goal at home in El Sadar.
In addition, only four teams have conceded fewer expected goals than Los Rojillos (46.8 xGA). An “Osasuna win & both teams to score” could therefore be an idea for a free bet.
But let’s now move on to the actual Osasuna Sevilla tip. Los Rojillos have scored 39 goals this season, almost half of which (!) have been scored by top striker Ante Budimir (18).
The Croatian striker loves to celebrate in front of his home crowd and has done so in the last five La Liga home games (6 goals).
Only Robert Lewandowski (25) and Kylian Mbappe (22) have scored more often than the 33-year-old (18) in the league. His penchant for goals on familiar turf cannot be overlooked.
Budimir has scored the majority (72.2 percent) of his 18 goals this season at Osasuna’s home stadium. I expect him to score at least once again in the Osasuna Sevilla tip. He is still in good form and has scored in the last two league games (3 goals).
In addition, Osasuna are unbeaten in their last seven competitive games against the Nervionenses, and Budimir already scored for his team in the first leg (1-1).
Furthermore, the Croatian has an incredible knack for getting his opponents into risky situations. No La Liga player has won more penalties this season than the 33-year-old (6).
In addition, Sevilla are traveling without any confidence. The visitors have been waiting for a win for five league games (1D, 4L) and have also conceded many expected goals (42.6 xGA).
In line with their miserable form, the Andalusians have been waiting for a clean sheet for five league games. As Osasuna have scored in every home game so far, I expect this wait to continue.
To come back to Budimir. Osasuna’s top striker not only wins a lot of penalties, he also converts them with great composure.
Budimir has taken a total of eight penalties this season and converted every single one.
Ante Budimir is Osasuna’s goal-scoring machine, having scored 46.2 percent of his team’s goals himself.
Los Rojillos have not finished a single league game at home without scoring this season. In their current form, Sevilla are not a team that can end this streak.
My Osasuna Sevilla prediction is: Ante Budimir will score.
