Will the Azules let anything burn anymore?
Real Oviedo’s winning streak under coach Veljko Paulovic continued in the first leg of the La Liga 2 playoffs. The Azules won 2-1 away in Andalusia and are now in pole position to reach the final. If Oviedo fail to win away against Almeria, that would be enough for the Carbayones.
There is certainly not much to suggest that the Andalusians will manage to turn things around against Oviedo. While the Azules have won 14 of their 21 home games in La Liga 2, the visitors have lost ten away games. “La Unión” have also conceded 36 goals on the road, which only two teams in the league have managed to surpass.
The record also speaks in Real Oviedo’s favor. The Carbayones are unbeaten in their last four meetings with UD Almeria (three wins, one draw) and have already collected four out of a possible six points against the Andalusians in the 2024/25 regular league season. To make matters worse, the Andalusians are still waiting for another win in their last nine La Liga 2 away games (two draws, seven defeats).
Oviedo – Statistics & current form
In February 2025, Real Oviedo moved into second place with a 2-1 away win at Burgos and were on course for promotion to La Liga. However, an untimely run of four league games without a win (one draw, three defeats) followed. With only one point from a possible twelve, the Azules slipped to sixth place. Coach Javier Calleja was subsequently dismissed and Veljko Paunovic was appointed.
Under the Serbian coach, the Carbayones then staged an incredible comeback. In the last ten games of the 2024/25 season, they did not lose a single game (seven wins, three draws) and picked up 24 out of a possible 30 points, missing out on second place by just two points. Now they are aiming to return to La Liga via the playoffs, where the Asturian side have already spent 38 seasons.
Oviedo with a perfect home record under Paunovic
The course has already been set for a place in the final. With a 2-1 away win in Andalusia, Veljko Paunovic’s side are now unbeaten in eleven competitive games (eight wins, three draws), so the odds are good that Oviedo’s summer break will be postponed if they reach the final against Almeria.
In addition to their current position, the Azules also have a strong home record to play for. The Carbayones have won 14 of their 21 home games in La Liga 2 in the 2024/25 season. Only Mirandes and Elche have won more often in front of their home crowd (15 times each). Under Veljko Paunovic, Real Oviedo has won all five home games and kept a clean sheet in three of the five, with a total goal difference of 9-2.
Almeria – Statistics & current form
UD Almeria, relegated from La Liga, were determined to return to the top flight of Spanish soccer. The omens were looking good, with coach Rubi being given one of the most expensive squads in the league, featuring numerous players on the shopping lists of big clubs from Europe’s top five leagues. Right-back Marc Pubill, for example, has been linked with VfB Stuttgart and FC Barcelona, while goal-getter Luis Suárez, who won the La Liga 2 top scorer award with 27 goals, is one of the stars of the league, along with keeper Luís Maximiano and playmaker Sergio Arribas.
However, if promotion is not achieved, all these expensive players could leave the club in the summer. This would be a major upheaval that could mean the Andalusians would not be in contention for promotion next season. Nothing less than the future of the club is at stake in this crucial second leg in Asturias, for which all forces must once again be mobilized.
Almeria has the third-weakest away defense in La Liga 2
The best betting providers are not ruling out a turnaround for “La Unión” either. For Oviedo against Almeria, the odds are 2.77 for a tip 2, which suggests a 36.1 percent probability that this second leg will go into extra time at least. The problem, however, is that the Andalusians have not only been waiting for a win against Real Oviedo for four competitive games (one draw, three defeats), but have also struggled extremely hard away from home recently.
UD Almeria has also played no role in the battle for the two direct promotion spots because it has not won any of its last nine La Liga 2 away games (two draws, seven defeats). The Almeriensistas have been particularly leaky at the back on their travels, conceding a total of 36 goals on the road. Only Deportivo La Coruna (37) and the relegated FC Cartagena (50) have conceded more goals in the league.
Oviedo – Almeria Head-to-head record
Head to head: 7 – 6 – 6
The two teams have met a total of 19 times so far, with Real Oviedo leading the head-to-head record with seven wins after last Saturday’s 2-1 victory in the first leg. The Azules also won their home game against Almeria 3-2 in regular league play and are unbeaten in their last four encounters with the Andalusians.
Oviedo – Almeria prediction
There is little to suggest that Oviedo will be able to turn the tide against Almeria, who have not won in nine away games in La Liga 2 (two draws, seven defeats) and now have their backs against the wall after losing the first leg 1-2 at home. The Azules, on the other hand, have not lost any of their eleven competitive games under Veljko Paunovic (eight wins, three draws) and are now in the comfortable position of not having to play for a win.
We expect the home side to keep the game quiet and repeatedly threaten with offensive pinpricks from a stable defense. A draw is quite conceivable, which is why we consider the combined tip of double chance 1X with under 4.5 goals to be the most plausible in what is likely to be a low-scoring second leg.
