Pafos – Monaco Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Wednesday, 26.11.2025 at 18:45 CET
I really didn’t have to think long about my Pafos Monaco tip, which I would like to test next Wednesday in combination with a first-class Oddset odds boost.
If the Cypriots were able to sink the “Yellow Submarine” in their own stadium – albeit with a bit of luck – then it should be quite possible for them to hold their own against the Monegasques just a few weeks later!
The German bookmakers offer you excellent odds for this courageous venture anyway, and the opponent from the south of France currently seems more vulnerable than ever!
Attention, dear readers: AS recently lost twice in a row in Ligue 1 with 1:4 each time.
What speaks for a surprise on Wednesday on the sunny Mediterranean island is not only the Monegasques’ declining form curve, but also the unfamiliar starting position for them.
Monaco have never faced a Cypriot team in Europe. It is also the first time that a French club has travelled to Cyprus in the Champions League since Paris SG beat APOEL Nicosia 1-0 there in October 2014.
If they are not 100% on the job, AS could get into trouble again despite being the favorites on the markets.
Pafos – Monaco Prediction & Betting
Precisely because the Monegasques have disappointed in recent weeks, the attractiveness of the Pafos odds as a profit-oriented betting professional almost forces me to position myself clearly on the side of the underdog.
An open exchange of blows, however, seems unlikely. As long as the Cypriots do not have to deal with an unearthly offensive like that of the Munich team, they are defensively remarkable: On the 4 matchdays so far, they have kept 3 clean sheets.
Looking at the betting program of leading bookmakers, I therefore like the selection Monaco does not score a goal, for which you can expect a profit multiplier of around 2.35.
The 1st goal betting offer: Pafos ranks around 2.72 at slightly higher values and is also too interesting to be completely ignored in view of the experience of the last Champions League matchday.
In addition, the victory over the Spaniards is likely to have given the Cypriots additional tailwind and self-confidence.
What you need to know about Pafos vs. Monaco betting
- Eight of Pafos’ ten UEFA matches this season have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals.
- Six of Pafos’ last seven UEFA victories have been by a single goal (2-1 or 1-0).
- Twelve of Monaco’s 17 competitive games this season have ended with goals for both teams.
- Five of Monaco’s last six UEFA victories have come with a one-goal difference.
Pafos – Monaco: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Victory Pafos without conceding a goal is the first computer-generated suggestion that I will evaluate for you.
Personally, this is a tad too risky for me, but in principle, there is nothing wrong with this Pafos Monaco AI forecast. Because the odds of 10.75 in the event of success justify the daring betting maneuver in any case.
Especially if the Monegasques are once again wasteful with their chances. So far, they have only converted one of their 10 big chances – the lowest conversion rate of all Champions League participants before Matchday 5!
Under 3.5 goals at odds around 1.55 is indeed a Pafos Monaco tip that seems certain, which our AI model has picked out for you.
It is hard to imagine that both teams will have an open exchange of blows – the Cypriots are usually far too deep for that.
So on this point, I largely agree with the data model. The only difference: I expect a 1:0 from the hosts, while my digital bettor rather advises a 1:1 result bet. In my eyes, that’s ultimately a matter of taste!
The best odds for Pafos vs. Monaco
Let’s take a look at the current Pafos Monaco betting odds for the clash on Champions League matchday 5.
Both teams currently have the same number of points, which makes the duel particularly explosive – and this is exactly what the bookmakers’ odds reflect.
A home win for Pafos is rated 4.80, which corresponds to a probability of around 21 percent. The bookmakers give the Cypriots chances, but clearly see them as outsiders who can only surprise if the game goes ideally.
The tie is 4.20, about 24 percent chance. This rate points to a possible tactical wait-and-see approach, in which both teams act cautiously – a perfectly plausible scenario!
After all, for an away win of Monaco there is an average of 1.62. The bookmakers are therefore relying on the individual class and experience of the French, who have not always been convincing in the league phase.
Pafos vs Monaco Match Analysis:
Pafos will pay particular attention to closing down at the back in this game. Fine combination play can hardly be assumed with the Cypriots – instead there is classic “kick and rush” as it was otherwise only played in England in the 80s.
Because with 21% long passes, they lead the Champions League in this statistic, and it can be assumed that many balls will be thrashed forward quickly on Tuesday as well.
The match will be marked by many interruptions, because defending is the specialty of the Cypriots. Derrick Luckassen is the absolute key player: he already has 52 clearances and 31 header clearances, more than any other player in the Champions League.
The team itself also leads the statistics – a total of 166 clearances and 75 header clearances.
If you want to be successful against Pafos, you have to stay patient, create chances cleanly and prepare for a physical, robust game in which mistakes can be punished immediately.
And if Pafos actually scores the 1-0, then they park the team bus directly in front of their own goal.
Pafos Form Check
Pafos is really hot on the island right now. The Cypriots are still unbeaten in their last four games and lead the league.
The aforementioned 1-0 win against Villarreal was particularly striking – it was also their first win ever in the Champions League league phase.
This has not only inspired the team, but also led manager Juan Carlos Carcedo to revise the goals upwards: from top 24 place to top 8.
The basis for the success is above all the defence: three clean sheets, two of them even away. If they keep that up, they could soon break APOEL Nicosia’s national record, which is currently four clean sheets in a European season.
Pafos are looking solid in terms of play, even if they currently have to complain about an annoying absence with Ken Sema, as he was injured during the international break.
Mislav Orsic, on the other hand, wants to finally end his goal curse and is known for scoring against big teams like Bayern or Dynamo.
If he gets going and the defence remains stable, they are a real threat at home.
Monaco Form Check
Monaco has had a bit of a hard time recently. Paul Pogba’s comeback was anything but good: a 4-1 defeat against Rennes in Ligue 1, the second in a row, and a sending-off.
In the Champions League, things went a little better after the first 4-1 defeat against Brugge: On the next three matchdays, they picked up five points, keeping two clean sheets!
Nevertheless, the away form remains rather mediocre: of the last seven UCL away games, they have won only two, three have been lost.
In order to play further ahead in European competition, they must be more stable, especially away from home.
There are lights and shadows among the players. Folarin Balogun comes fresh from his suspension from Ligue 1 and has scored four times in the last six games – a clear factor for the offensive.
Pogba himself has to find himself again after the bad comeback. Otherwise, Monaco seems to be spared injuries, so they can compete with the best line-up.
If Balogun brings his form and the defence remains stable, they can also have a serious say against Pafos. But the clear favorite role for the market remains exaggerated in my eyes!
