Europa League Playoffs, Thursday, 13.02.2025 at 9:00 pm
PAOK Saloniki will have the opportunity to take revenge for their defeat to FCSB Bucharest on matchday two in the Europa League playoffs.
The reigning Greek champions have improved significantly since the last meeting and have won three of their four previous Europa League games.
However, the black and whites cannot afford to be fatal in front of goal against the Romanian team. In my PAOK Saloniki FCSB Bucharest betting tip, I believe that both teams are capable of winning, but expect a maximum of one goal from either side. For odds of 1.80, I am playing “Both Teams to Score – No” at Bet365.
PAOK are undefeated in their last three Europa League home games (2W, 1D). As a result, the reigning Greek champions have taken on the role of favorites for this first playoff game.
Win odds of around 1.70 become more attractive if you boost them a little higher with a odds boost.
The visitors from Bucharest are taking off with fond memories of their last trip to Athens. On the second matchday of the league phase of this EL season, FCSB took three points from the Toumba Stadium. The golden goal came before half-time in the eighth minute of extra time.
Defensively, the Ros-albastrii have come through the encounters pretty well so far. Only Olympiakos (6) have collected more clean sheets than the team from Bucharest (4).
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A bet on “PAOK Salonika under 0.5 goals” is definitely associated with a risk that you can, however, elegantly avoid with an Oddset freebet. The odds of 4.50 definitely contain value.
However, I have deliberately softened this variant in my PAOK Saloniki FCSB Bucharest betting tip and decided on “Both teams to score – No”. The hosts only won three matches in the league phase – but all of them without conceding a goal. PAOK celebrated all of their victories between the fifth and seventh matchdays.
On matchday eight, however, the Greek champions reverted to their old ways and lost 2-0 to Real Sociedad. It was already the sixth PAOK game in this EL season in which only one of the two teams scored a goal.
A game without a guest goal is somewhat more likely. Of the 36 participants, Bucharest scored the third-fewest expected goals (7.2 xG). Converted, that’s less than one expected goal per game.
Just as with the hosts, six of eight Europa League games involving FCSB ended without either side scoring.
In addition, there are further indications that suggest a game in which a maximum of one goal will be scored by either team.
PAOK has never (!) won a knockout game in the Europa League (3W, 5D) and has not scored in six of eight attempts.
In addition, both goalkeepers give their teams additional stability on an average day. Dominik Kotarski (PAOK) and Stefan Tarnovanu have each saved more than 73 percent of the balls so far.
Although the hosts have so far had a strong 5.9 shots on goal per matchday (8th), they have had few worries about them in many cases. The shot conversion rate of 10.3 percent confirms this impression.
The missed chances were already a factor in the last duel. PAOK lost 1-0 at home to FCSB on matchday 2, although the expected goals showed a clear advantage for the Greek champions (2.02:0.72 xG).
Bucharest rarely appeared in front of the opposing goalkeepers and only took 3.8 shots on target per game on average (30).
In their last meeting with the Black & Whites, however, just one big chance was enough for Birligea to score the winning goal.
Both teams know what it means to finish a Europa League game without conceding a goal. PAOK won three matches – all of them clean sheets.
FCSB have already managed to walk off the pitch without conceding after four appearances, and drew 0-0 in two of their previous four Europa League games.
My PAOK Saloniki FCSB Bucharest betting tip is: “Both teams score – No” !
