WM Qualifiers, Friday, 21.03.2025 at 20:45
The oddsmakers give the impression that this will be an extremely one-sided affair. But the Poles are struggling and will also be without Arkadiusz Milik …
I have therefore adjusted my Poland Lithuania betting tip. The hosts will not roll over their Baltic guests, but at best only defeat them after a long battle!
After a disappointing 2024, Poland are looking for a much-needed fresh start.
The “Biało-Czerwoni” finished bottom of Group D at the European Championship without a win and then suffered a bitter relegation from the top division of the UEFA Nations League (1 win, 1 draw, 4 defeats).
Now the World Cup qualifiers for 2026 begin – and the schedule is kind to them.
On the first two matchdays, the Poles face the two lowest-ranked teams in the group, giving them an ideal opportunity to get their form back on track.
A look at the past should encourage the Poles: In the last World Cup qualifiers, they secured second place in their group with a strong record of six wins, two draws and just two defeats.
Moreover, their home advantage in these competitions should not be underestimated – they have won nine of their last eleven home games in World Cup qualifying (1 draw, 1 defeat).
The statistics are therefore clearly on the side of the hosts, who are the clear favorites in this duel with every betting provider with Apple Pay. (Still a little too clear for me, though.)
Lithuania, on the other hand, have never taken part in a European Championship or World Cup finals in their soccer history and have managed just two wins from 18 games in the last two World Cup qualifying cycles (3 draws, 13 defeats).
The last Nations League campaign was also disastrous – with six defeats from six games, the visitors were relegated from League C.
Let’s not kid ourselves: The Balts are a footballing lightweight. Their only player in a European top five club is and remains Gvidas Gineitis from FC Torino.
And yet there are at least small rays of hope for the “Trispalvės”: Five of their last six defeats were each by just one goal difference – and in four of the last five games they were at least able to score a goal themselves.
However, it seems unrealistic that they will score in Poland of all places – their last eight away games in World Cup qualifying have resulted in seven defeats and one draw, each time without scoring.
Still, I don’t think the Baltics will allow themselves to be simply overrun on Friday!
Poland will almost certainly dominate this game, but Lithuania could fight back and try to keep the result in check.
A bet on Poland to win & Under 3.5 goals at odds of around 1.80 could be an interesting choice here, as Poland have often struggled to secure big wins in the recent past despite being clear favorites.
Alternatively, “Poland win to nil” at odds of around 1.60 could also be worth considering, given that Lithuania have failed to score a single goal in their last eight away World Cup qualifiers.
Conclusion: The Polish national soccer team have disappointed on several occasions recently and are not exactly known for their ability to overcome even weaker opponents with ease.
One example of this is the weak performance in the qualifiers for Euro 2024 against some absolute flyweights.
Such performances show that the Poles are clearly struggling to achieve clear victories even against supposedly inferior teams.
However, Lithuania is also going through a difficult phase. National coach Edgaras Jankauskas recently described the state of the national team as “poor” and emphasized that the team is currently not competitive.
It is no coincidence that the visitors have not beaten a nation other than San Marino, Gibraltar or Bulgaria since 2020. What’s more, the Balts are currently only 142nd in the FIFA world rankings.
Despite this supposedly favorable starting position, Poland could struggle to a narrow 1:0 victory on Friday – against a team that other top nations would probably beat much higher …
My Poland Lithuania tip: Win POL & Under 3.5 goals
