Portugal – Hungary Tip World Cup Qualifier, Group F, Matchday 4, 10/14/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
Despite 3.11 expected goals (xG) and 30 shots on goal, the Portuguese only managed a narrow 1-0 victory a few days ago. However, the defense allowed an opponent xG value of only 0.08, so in a performance-based world, the Irish “should” have lost 0-3.
I trust the predictions of our AI model at least as much as I trust the ease of use of the practical Interwetten app and Oddset app when it comes to my Portugal vs. Hungary tip.
Our digital betting friend predicts several goals – something like a crisp 4-1 or 3-0 for the hosts. I have based my own strategies on this prediction!
Portugal vs. Hungary AI predictions:
A Portugal win with a -1 handicap at odds of around 1.65 may not promise a huge payout, but it should still be successful in the end given the sheer footballing superiority of the Iberians.
Yes, the first leg ended in a 3-2 win for the Nations League overall winners, but here too, a look at the data reveals that the Portuguese should have won by a much bigger margin.
Portugal’s xG value at the final whistle was 2.38, while that of the Eastern Europeans was just 0.48.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Portugal win |
Draw |
Hungary to win |
| 84.4% |
7.8% |
3.8% |
Most goals in the second half seems to be another AI suggestion with excellent chances of success – even at Portugal Hungary odds of 1.90 on average.
In fact, Portugal scored 7 of their last 8 goals against the Magyars in direct duels after the break! In the first leg, 3 of the 5 goals were also scored after the break! That sounds really promising, doesn’t it?
1. Goal: Cristiano Ronaldo will triple your stake if successful and also seems worth a try to me.
The Portuguese scored from the spot in the first leg and missed another penalty against Ireland a few days ago. With the frequency with which CR7 takes free kicks and penalties, he could strike again – possibly even to make it 1-0.
What you need to consider when betting on Portugal vs. Hungary
- Portugal had 28 shots (2.67 xG) in their last match against Ireland before Ruben Neves scored in the 91st minute. The visitors only had two shots on goal.
- In September’s match against Hungary, the Magyars scored two goals from just 0.48 xG and two shots on goal. Portugal clearly dominated: 2.38 xG, 15:5 shots and 69% possession.
- Portugal started as clear favorites with a -1.25 Asian handicap. The 2-3 result meant half losses for Portugal bettors and half wins for Hungary supporters.
- Joao Cancelo, Portugal’s right-back, was the most active player in the last match with four shots and scored the winning goal in the 86th minute – his 12th international goal.
