Champions League, Semifinal, Second Leg, Wednesday, 07.05.2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Once your reputation for invincibility is ruined, life is pretty uninhibited – at least that seems to be the case at PSG. After 30 decent results in a row, the Parisians promptly conceded their first two Ligue 1 defeats on the last two matchdays.
But that hardly bothers anyone in the capital. The focus is fully on the Champions League semi-final, where they will defend a 1-0 lead in the second leg against Arsenal.
For Paris, only Europe matters now – they have already secured the Ligue 1 title! My PSG Arsenal tip will tell you whether the full focus on the Champions League will actually pay off!
Of course, I won’t keep my very own PSG Arsenal prediction from you. You can now get it together with a recommendation for the Bwin voucher. However, you should also know what the data analysts think.
Their prediction is clear: after the 1-0 first-leg win in London, Paris are now considered favorites for the title (42%) according to sports analytics company OPTA and have a whopping 78% chance of reaching the final.
Arsenal must therefore not only turn the game around, but also the momentum. Paris can wait and see and rely on counterattacks – but beware: the Gunners have responded to deficits several times this season.
The bookmakers’ prediction
A home win for Paris is rated at 2.10 on average by betting providers with PayPal – not a huge margin, but they are the favorites.
A draw, on the other hand, pays 3.65, which suggests an intense game with chances for both sides. An away win for the Gunners is priced at 3.35 – solid, but more of an outsider’s chance.
Anyone looking at the PSG Arsenal odds will quickly realize that anything is possible here – it’s guaranteed not to be boring.
AI prediction PSG vs Arsenal: ChatGPT’s prediction
I couldn’t resist calling up ChatGPT to get a detailed PSG Arsenal AI prediction, which I will now evaluate for you here.
The risky suggestion “PSG wins and there are more than 3.5 goals” is a bold but very appealing combination. In an offensive duel like this, I think a 3-1 or 3-2 result is entirely possible.
If you’re looking for generous odds, you should definitely consider this computer-generated PSG Arsenal tip.
A goal from Gonçalo Ramos is also within the realm of possibility. The Portuguese is currently in top form and has the necessary punch – a goal scorer tip that I can absolutely understand.
It seems almost obvious to me that both teams will score. With so much offensive power on the pitch, it’s hard to imagine one side coming away empty-handed. This is indeed a safe PSG Arsenal tip from ChatGPT that you can play with a clear conscience.
Analysis: PSG vs Arsenal
PSG goes into the second leg with momentum after winning the first leg 1-0 at Arsenal.
The Parisians have won three of their last four Champions League home games, but also showed weaknesses against Atlético (1-2) and Liverpool (0-1).
Overall, the statistics clearly favor PSG: they have won 18 of their last 19 UEFA matches when winning the first leg away.
Their current form is mixed – although they have already secured the Ligue 1 title, they suffered a 1-2 defeat at Strasbourg at the weekend with a rotated squad.
Arsenal, for their part, suffered their first competitive defeat since February (previously 6 wins, 6 draws) with the aforementioned 0-1 loss to PSG around a week ago, before another disappointment followed at the weekend against Bournemouth in the Premier League (1-2).
However, they are in good form away from home: they have won their last four Champions League away games, each conceding exactly one goal.
Arsenal’s statistical Achilles’ heel, however, is as follows: they have never come back from a home defeat in the first leg of a knockout tie (0 out of 5 attempts).
Odds analysis
“Over 2.5 goals” at 1.70 is an entirely reasonable betting decision. Both Paris and Arsenal have enormous attacking quality, and in an open, high-level contest, three or more goals are almost to be expected.
“Goal within the first 15 minutes” at 2.85 is another exciting value tip, especially if Arsenal presses early and forces PSG to play along. Both teams definitely have the potential to provide some spectacle in the early stages.
Arsenal faces a difficult task!
Statistically speaking, there is actually a lot to suggest that the English side will not progress – and it almost seems as if Paris have already done half the job with their away win.
Arsenal have only ever come back from a first-leg defeat in two of their eleven knockout ties in the history of the UEFA Champions League – both times against FC Porto in the round of 16 (2009/10 and 2023/24).
What makes it particularly bitter is that the Gunners have been eliminated in all five cases when they lost the first leg at home.
Such statistics clearly illustrate how difficult the task will be in the second leg. Do you still believe in a comeback for the Londoners?
Ligue 1 has improved in recent years…
Arsenal had an impressive record against French teams in the past, but that aura seems to have been broken.
Once unbeaten in their first 13 away games against French clubs (8 wins, 5 draws), the Gunners have now lost twice in a row – against Rennes in 2019 and against Lens in 2023.
This could well be seen as a sign that the level of play in Ligue 1 has risen noticeably in recent years.
It will therefore be no walk in the park for Arsenal at the Parc des Princes, especially as the French side traditionally play particularly strong offensively on home turf.
Paris Saint-Germain have won three of their last four home games in the Champions League, scoring an impressive 14 goals in the process.
We can therefore expect Paris to play an attacking game, especially as they have a full squad to choose from.
Nevertheless, PSG are not completely invincible: they have already lost twice at home this season – against Liverpool and Atlético Madrid.
The last time Paris suffered more home defeats in a single international season was in 2020/21 (3).
Nevertheless, it is hard to deny that the French offense is likely to set the tone again in the second leg, especially if the Londoners have to open up from the start.
One player who will be in the spotlight on Wednesday is Ousmane Dembélé. His winning goal in the first leg was his eighth of the current Champions League season – only Zlatan Ibrahimović has scored more goals for PSG in a single Champions League season (10 goals in the 2013/14 season).
The French international not only brings pace and creativity to the team, but also a clinical finish – qualities that can make all the difference in a tight game like this.
Dembélé’s goal odds for Wednesday are hovering around 2.20 on the markets, so he’s a priority for me.
My PSG Arsenal prediction:
Both teams lost league games at the weekend in which, under normal circumstances, they would have been expected to pick up at least a point.
The reason for this is obvious: both teams rested players with Wednesday’s important clash in mind.
However, I see significantly more potential for the French side to get back on track. Their transition play is explosive, and with no key players missing, there is a lot to suggest another win against the Londoners – this time at home in the Parc des Princes.
My PSG Arsenal tip: PSG to win & both teams to score.