Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam Tip Champions League, Matchday 6 on Wednesday, 10.12.2025 at 18:45 CET
Actually, Ajax is playing so badly in 2025/26, you really can’t tell anyone that. The great talents are gone and what remains is not enough to make an impression in the Champions League.
Accordingly, I campaigned in the digital betting office of my trust for both an attractive odds boost and a Qarabag FC Ajax Amsterdam tip on the home side.
Especially since the men from Azerbaijan feel right at home and were even able to push Chelsea to the brink of defeat. Against the harmless Dutch, a home win should be quite possible!
Do you want to hear some interesting historical facts about this encounter? For example, it is not a premiere!
The only duel between Qarabag and Ajax so far took place in the last Europa League season – the Dutch won 3-0 away in October 2024.
Qarabag are generally still waiting for a win against teams from the Netherlands: In five European games against Dutch opponents, there have been three draws and two defeats.
But against this Ajax, who will be extremely weak in 2025/26, things were to be different this time.
Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam Prediction & Betting
Qarabag wins without conceding a goal is on my wish list for a reason. Because the odds in the event of success are 3.95 – and there really shouldn’t be much from the guests.
After all, Ajax have recorded the fewest shots (37), shots on goal (10) and goals (1) of all 36 Champions League participants in 2025/26 in the competition.
Consequently, it could go in the direction of the home side right from the start. That’s why I’m not entirely averse to the selection of Qarabag/Qarabag at odds around 3.10.
What you need to know about Qarabag FC vs. Ajax betting
- Qarabag have only failed to score once in the 2025/26 Champions League, scoring goals against Benfica (3), Copenhagen (2), Athletic Club (1) and Chelsea (2).
- In the 2025/26 CL season, Ajax recorded the fewest shots on goal (37), the fewest shots on target (10) and the fewest goals (1) of any team.
- Both Qarabag and Ajax recorded at least three goals in three of five CL games (60% rate “Over 2.5 goals”). For Qarabag, all three of these games ended with over 3.5 goals.
- Kasper Dolberg is the most favoured goalscorer at Ajax, although the away team scored only one goal and conceded 16 goals in five CL games in the 2025/26 season.
Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our independent Qarabag Ajax Amsterdam AI prediction also assumes a home win, but does not rule out an open exchange of blows.
In fact, our data model focuses on the selection of Over 2.5 goals and Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.65 and 2.55 respectively – depending on how high your individual risk tolerance is.
These two betting plans are certainly justified, as only Ajax (5) and Copenhagen (5) have conceded at least two goals on more matchdays than Qarabag (4).
Abdellah Zoubir meets Qarabag FC Ajax Amsterdam odds around 3.45 is a player pick with excellent prospects of success in my eyes.
Because Zoubir has been involved in more attacking sequences that ended with a shot on goal this Champions League season at Qarabag than any other player in the team (17).
At the same time, he created the most scoring chances, attempted the second most dribbles (12) and had the third most shots on goal (5).
Best odds for Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam
Let’s take a look at the Qarabag FC Ajax Amsterdam odds together – a matchup that the markets classify surprisingly clearly, but not completely clearly.
A home win for Qarabag is currently rated at 1.90. The bookmakers give the Azerbaijanis a slight advantage – supported by home strength and intense play!
This quota seems like an indication that Ajax has to dig deep into their bag of tricks to control the game.
The draw is at 4.00. This is an odd that does not rule out a tough, tactically deadlocked duel, but makes it clear that the bookmakers are more likely to assume a clearer decision. A game that only tips over late fits well with this value.
The Ajax victory with 3.60 shows how skeptical the bookies are about the Dutch at the moment. Fluctuations in form, defensive uncertainties and the lack of consistency of the offense are visibly included in this evaluation.
Qarabag FC vs Ajax Amsterdam Match Analysis:
Qarabag is traditionally strong at home and could start with a lot of energy – as they did against Chelsea. An early lead would be absolutely no surprise, because Ajax regularly buckles early this Champions League season.
The Dutch were down 73% of their total playing time – more than any other team in the first five matchdays. In total, they were 356:21 minutes behind, also a league negative record.
That’s exactly why Qarabag should start confidently, create a lot of pressure and tie Ajax deep in the first minutes. The start could shape the entire picture of the game.
However, the Azerbaijanis are not completely untouchable. If Ajax push forward consistently, there will be spaces for quick counter-attacks, in which the Dutch have quality.
Only Pafos (10.6 xGA) has conceded more expected goals than Qarabag (10.5 xGA) among the current teams in a playoff place. This shows: Defensively, there are gaps that can be attacked.
However, Ajax must act more courageously than recently and keep the tempo high in transition moments. All in all, you can expect a game that the host starts with pressure, but can become surprisingly open in the course of the game – especially if Ajax uses the spaces consistently.
Qarabag Form Check
Qarabag surprises this UCL season with a much stronger performance than many expected. They have a solid seven points after five games and have already achieved more than in their disappointing Europa League season last year.
It is particularly striking that despite defensive wobbles – in four of their five games they conceded at least two goals – they always found answers offensively.
At home, they scored twice in every game and took a win and a draw, which gives them a good foundation for the rest of the league phase.
This home strength is also confirmed by their impressive run of ten consecutive home games unbeaten across all competitions, including strong results against Chelsea and Copenhagen.
In their own stadium, they hardly seem to be impressed and therefore perform with a lot of speed and physical presence.
The offensive department works reliably, and especially in close games they often manage to build up pressure late and force the opponent to make mistakes.
This makes them an unpleasant opponent not only in the Champions League, but in general.
If they manage to stabilize the defense and concede fewer easy goals, Qarabag could even become a candidate for a place in the top 24. In any case, the form curve is clearly pointing upwards.
Ajax Amsterdam Form Check
Ajax is deep in a sporting crisis, which is particularly drastic in the Champions League. Five games, five defeats – a run that has never been seen before for the club in the Champions League.
The form curve is pointing steeply downwards, and the team looks far from the dominant, self-confident Ajax that they were used to in Europe.
With the threat of a sixth bankruptcy in a row, another negative chapter would be written. Even in the league, things are not going well, which adds to the pressure.
There is also a lack of stability away from home: only two wins in the last eleven competitive games on foreign soil speak for themselves. Ajax seem insecure, lacking in ideas and hardly able to cope with setbacks quickly – a situation that runs through the entire season.
The team does not get into the duels in the decisive moments, lacks penetration in the final third and looks less well-rehearsed compared to previous years.
The form clearly speaks against them, and a point would even be a surprise.
The current fragile condition, the lack of balance in the game and the weak away behaviour make it clear: Ajax is in one of the most difficult phases of recent years.
