Qarabag – Frankfurt Tip Champions League, Matchday 7 on Wednesday, 21.01.2026 at 18:45 CET
At the weekend, I was watching winter sports in the morning when the ZDF Tagesschau confronted me for the first time with the dismissal of Dino Toppmöller at Eintracht Frankfurt.
As a result, I reconsidered my Qarabag FC Frankfurt tip for the penultimate Champions League matchday and at the same time decided on another Merkur Bets odds boost.
It should no longer be an away win bet, but only the combination bet “Over 3.5 goals & both teams to score”, which I would like to put to the test.
The reason for this is very simple: The average goals per Champions League game of Qarabag (3.58) and Eintracht (4.00) are each well above the competition-wide average of 3.02.
The interim solution on the bench of the SGE currently raises questions – so I’d rather stick to this promising proposal!
The belief in being able to beat this opponent should not have been lost by Eintracht despite the separation from coach Dino Toppmöller.
Qarabag and Frankfurt have met twice, winning 2-1 at home and 2-0 away in the 2013/14 UEFA Europa League play-off.
This clear direct duel speaks for the Bundesliga club, even if it is certainly not an easy time for the Hessians at the moment.
Qarabag FC – Frankfurt Prediction & Betting
Actually, based on the data, I support every Qarabag Frankfurt tip that is based on hits and can be easily put to the test by you as part of a Winamax free bet.
The options “1st half: over 1.5 goals” and “2nd half: over 1.5 goals” promise odds of around 2.20 and 1.75 respectively, which are not mutually exclusive. After all, I expect over 90 minutes of evenly distributed entertainment!
Both proposals have their raison d’être: Qarabag’s last appearance against Ajax was 1-1 at half-time, while Eintracht’s Bundesliga games are always worth their entrance fee with an average of 4.28 goals per 90 minutes.
What you need to know about Qarabag FC vs. Frankfurt betting
- Qarabag allowed the opponent’s second-most progressive passes this Champions League season and at the same time played the fourth-fewest passes into the top himself.
- Frankfurt have only taken 43 shots in the six Champions League games so far this season – the lowest figure in the entire competition.
- In 8 of the 12 games that these two teams have played together in the current Champions League season, both teams have scored.
- Qarabag’s Matheus Silva has already been fouled 21 times in the Champions League – more than any other player in the competition.
Qarabag FC – Frankfurt: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Qarabag Frankfurt AI forecast evaluates facts and figures and recommends on this basis the conclusion of an away win bet on Frankfurt odds at 2.05.
Personally, as a betting expert, I would rather advise you against it now in view of the recent events at Eintracht. For the time being, “only” U21 head coach Dennis Schmitt and U19 coach Alexander Meier are helping out as an interim duo.
From the SGE’s point of view, that wouldn’t make me very confident with regard to Wednesday evening.
As for player betting, our AI has presented me with recommendations that seem to hit the nail on the head.
To name Mario Götze as the goalscorer would indeed be hopeless, as the possibly injured 2014 World Cup winner has not scored in 30 Champions League games in a row anyway – since September 2016 to be exact.
The selection Leandro Andrade meets, on the other hand, could be all the more interesting. The odds of 2.87 on average are already extremely attractive.
But that’s not all: the man from Cape Verde in the service of Qarabag has scored three Champions League goals from just five shot attempts, making him one of the most prolific strikers in the entire competition!
The best odds for Qarabag FC vs. Frankfurt
In the past few hours, the bookmakers at Qarabag Frankfurt have once again made major adjustments to the odds – triggered by the dismissal of Dino Toppmöller as SGE coach.
Such personnel decisions immediately leave their mark on the markets.
A home win for Qarabag is now offered at around 3.05. The bookies show here that the Azerbaijanis have a chance of a good result, especially because Eintracht is currently in a transition phase and has to regroup.
The draw is 3.80. The markets are thus hinting at a game that could be open over phases – the dismissal of Toppmöller causes uncertainty and could lead to a tactically cautious appearance by Frankfurt.
An away win for Eintracht is rated 2.15. The bookmakers continue to recognize the quality of the SGE – despite everything, success is likely, but not automatically guaranteed. Personally, the “value” here is too thin for me.
Qarabag FC vs Frankfurt Match Analysis:
I expect an uncompromisingly entertaining game, in which it goes back and forth from the first minute and many scoring chances are created.
Both teams are under massive pressure, as there are only two matchdays left until the end of the league phase and both Qarabag and Frankfurt urgently need a win to keep their own chances of participating in the playoffs.
Frankfurt has had big problems offensively so far this season of the Champions League. With only 4.1 expected goals (xG), they are the worst team in this category in the entire competition.
Qarabag, on the other hand, comes in at 7.4 xG, which is also in the lower range. Other teams have only slightly better values here. This means that goals on Wednesday will mainly result from mistakes in defence, not from the superiority of their own attacking game.
Both teams are among the worst eight Champions League teams in terms of their respective xgA value. This suggests that there are defensive gaps and that things can get heated at any time.
Frankfurt, by the way, will try to become dangerous from set pieces or via quick transition moments, while Qarabag wants to use the few spaces consistently when in possession of the ball.
Qarabag FC Form Check
After the winter break in their own country, Qarabag starts the new season, and the boys from Azerbaijan are eager to defend their top 24 position in the Champions League.
The break came at just the right time, because a bit of recovery was needed – they had dropped quite a few points before. They have already led eight times this UCL season and have given up the lead, including in three of the last four games.
This has made the situation quite tight, because from now on they have to win again to avoid slipping further down.
Nevertheless, there are rays of hope: Three wins from the last six home games on the European stage show that they can definitely win on their pitch.
However, only one clean sheet in the last 22 international games reveals that the defence is still a big question mark.
For Qarabag, the main thing will be to be stable at the back and to make clever use of the chances up front – a mistake, and the meager points reserve can quickly melt away.
Frankfurt Form Check
Frankfurt, on the other hand, comes into the game with a lot of pressure. With just four points, the Hessians are at the bottom of the Champions League, and if they can’t stop the current five-game run without a win, they face early elimination.
Historically, Frankfurt have never lost three games in a row on the European stage – a win here would prevent them from equalling that unfortunate record.
But in view of the big question mark on the coach’s bench, this scenario could unfortunately well occur.
Frankfurt’s winter break is already a few weeks ago, but that hasn’t helped so far: the Bundesliga record for 2026 reads gloomy (2 draws, 1 defeat), and things are not going any better in Europe either.
They have not won their last four UCL away games while travelling, which shows that the team has not yet found its rhythm again.
On Qarabag’s home turf, it will be important to show courage, defend cleverly and finally get the offensive going again – this is the only way to keep the chance of the knockout rounds alive.
