Qarabag – Newcastle Tip Champions League, playoffs, first leg on Wednesday, 18.02.2026 at 18:45 CET
If the home side want to take advantage of their mini-chance of reaching the round of 16, they must become the first club from Azerbaijan to win a European Cup match against an English club on Wednesday.
The fact that the underdog is expected to play courageously forward suits my Qarabag Newcastle tip very well. I am already counting on the success of my combination selection Victory NUFC & Over 2.5 Goals at odds of around 1.80.
Qarabag’s Champions League home games in the league phase have already brought an average of 4.25 goals per match – mostly spectacular games!
But no matter what they try. The “Magpies” should still have the upper hand in the end after their strong performance in the FA Cup. Whoever wins 3-1 at Villa Park should also be able to leave the pitch as a winner a few days later in Baku!
As already indicated in the first section of my Qarabag Newcastle prediction, the hosts would need a “historic victory”. For a better understanding, let’s take a look at the previous encounters between clubs from both countries!
This is the tenth European meeting between teams from Azerbaijan and England – all involving Qarabag – with the English representatives almost always winning (W8 D1).
Qarabag FC – Newcastle Prediction & Betting
I have a Qarabag Newcastle tip for you that I would hardly have played until recently. Until a few days ago, Sandro Tonali had not scored a single goal for the “Magpies” in the 2025/26 season.
But his brace against Aston Villa was a feast for the eyes – including the more offensive interpretation of his midfield role, which you are not used to from him.
Since the German bookmakers nevertheless announced quite high odds of about 6.30 for the bet Tonali trifft on Wednesday, I deliberately choose this risk pick.
Over 3.5 goals at odds around 2.60, on the other hand, is the comparatively safer bet. In Azerbaijan, I expect a large number of goals, as the host must use its home right before the difficult trip to England!
What you need to know about Qarabag FC vs. Newcastle betting
- Classic “David vs. Goliath” duel: Qarabag Agdam is a proud 142 places behind Newcastle in the Opta Power ranking and has the lowest squad value of all remaining teams – a difference of over 680 million euros.
- Record-breaking journey: With a distance of 2,529 miles (approx. 4,070 km), the “Magpies” complete the longest away trip that an English team has ever played for a match in UEFA Champions League history.
- Attacking spectacle likely: Both teams have a 75% rate for games with at least three goals – Qarabag in three of four Champions League games, Newcastle in three of four away games.
- Behind the top scorers Anthony Gordon (6 goals) and Harvey Barnes, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa are considered the first contenders for a goal, as both have already scored once in this campaign.
Qarabag FC – Newcastle: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Qarabag Newcastle AI forecast generated two to three interesting betting suggestions in a short time, which I immediately evaluated for you afterwards.
I support the recommendation that both score at odds of around 1.83 not only because this condition has already been met again and again in the last five away games of the Magpies.
Rather, I am encouraged to bet by my own assessment of the home side: Qarabag has already put Frankfurt (3 goals) and Chelsea (2 goals) under pressure in this arena – so Newcastle’s defence could also be in trouble on Wednesday!
1st half: Over 1.5 goals promises a win multiplier of about 2.40 and is so promising that I would do without a free bet without a deposit – I’d rather save that for riskier scenarios!
Qarabag goes into the game with the confidence of a team that has scored 2+ goals in six consecutive European home games and needs to take the initiative early.
The starting position speaks for a gripping first half of the game anyway: A 1-1 or even 1-2 at half-time for Newcastle is definitely possible, should the English be able to effectively use the available spaces for quick counter-attacks.
The best odds for Qarabag FC vs. Newcastle
The Qarabag Newcastle odds leave no doubt that the bookmakers have already decided on the round of 16. The English are considered the big favourites!
A home win for the underdog, on the other hand, is quoted at 7.00. The markets rate the chances of the Azerbaijanis as minimal. A success would be considered a real sensation and would only be conceivable under extraordinary circumstances.
The draw is 5.00. The bookmakers see a stalemate after 90 minutes as theoretically possible, but it is only realistic if the English act carelessly at times or the game becomes very tough.
An away win of the Magpies is last with 1.40. The bookmakers base the role of favourites on experience, individual class and international routine. A success for the English is considered very likely, almost a matter of course.
The Qarabag Newcastle odds give a clear picture: NUFC is the clear favourite and designated round of 16 finalist!
Qarabag FC vs Newcastle Match Analysis:
The guests have a long journey behind them and could therefore act a little more hesitantly, especially in the opening minutes.
So it is to be expected that Qarabag will set the pace from the start, bring the balls over the wings into the middle and simply try everything early on to create maximum pressure. After all, they have to punish every weak phase of the opponent consistently!
Nevertheless, there are many indications that this plan will not work out in the long run, as Newcastle has some excellent counter-attackers in the line-up and can therefore appear dangerously in front of the opponent’s goal at any time in no time at all!
The quality of the English should ultimately make itself felt, and Eddie Howe will do everything he can to ensure that this game is not taken lightly. Because the board expects the coach to advance to the round of 16 at any price.
Even if the underdogs are brave in their own stadium and go into the duels with high intensity, the form of the English so far speaks for the fact that they will take control in the course of the game and decide the game on their individual class.
Qarabag FC Form Check
Qarabag returned to the Champions League after an eight-year hiatus and made history right away by becoming the first team from Azerbaijan to make it through the main round!
In particular, the spectacular 3-2 away win in Lisbon and the 2-0 home win against Copenhagen boost the team’s self-confidence enormously.
Another highlight was the historic 3-2 win against Frankfurt on Matchday 7. It made them the first Azerbaijani team to defeat a German team in UEFA competition.
Kady Borges, meanwhile, is available again after a long injury break and could play against Newcastle. Since he was carefully introduced back to action after the injury, it is still unclear whether he will play from the start or take a seat on the bench for the time being.
On the positive side for Qarabag, there are no other major injury problems apart from Borges, so coach Gurban Gurbanov can draw on almost everything to welcome the guests from Newcastle.
Newcastle Form Check
Newcastle travel to Azerbaijan knowing that their away record in international competitions this season is anything but reassuring!
Because in the league phase, the Magpies celebrated only one win on the road. The points in Paris (1-1) and the hard-fought 2-2 draw in Leverkusen have at least ensured satisfaction for the board.
And even though the Magpies have certainly not uprooted any trees during rides, it must still be stated that Qarabag is their comparatively easiest opponent in this Champions League season.
In terms of personnel, Howe has to do without Joelinton, Emil Krafth, Valentino Livramento and Fabian Schär. Joelinton’s absence is particularly painful, as Newcastle will miss his physical presence and winning power in midfield.
The appearances of Bruno Guimaraes and Lewis Miley are also still on the brink at the moment. However, this shouldn’t be a problem as Tonali, Joe Willock and Jacob Ramsey are on hand to fill the gaps in central midfield and provide stability.
