La Liga, Matchday 38 on Saturday, 24.05.2025 at 21:00
A strong finish and European football is definitely within reach. Rayo Vallecano could be playing internationally next season, possibly even securing a ticket to the Europa League. First, however, they need to take care of business at home.
And the opponent is anything but easy. In my Rayo Vallecano Mallorca tip, I’m therefore opting for a goal bet, mixing the over and under odds at Winamax so that I win if there are two to four goals in the match.
While Vallecano has the best chance of playing in the Europa League or Conference League next season, Mallorca is out of the running. In their last two games, they suffered two narrow defeats against Real Madrid and Getafe, both 1-2.
Given how the games unfolded, neither defeat was undeserved. The Royals alone had a whopping 39 shots on goal against a team that is difficult to break down defensively. With 44 goals conceded and a compact style of play, the team from the island is strong at the back.
Apart from the four teams at the top of the league, only Getafe has a better goal difference. In the end, it was simply not enough goals, with Mallorca remaining below the 1.00 goal average with 35 goals in 37 games.
Overall, the team playing on the island, which is jokingly referred to as the “17th state” in Germany, has scored the fourth fewest goals. It is also only 17th in the statistics that count the total number of shots on goal.
However, Mallorca’s win rate on Saturday is quite high at 6.25, with Vallecano clearly ahead at 1.54 and a draw (4.10) in between, according to our betting providers with Apple Pay as a payment method.
The huge difference is due in part to Mallorca’s weak performances against Real and Getafe, the fact that their European campaign is finally over, and the hosts’ strong finish. Nevertheless, I think the difference is too big.
We can’t assume that Mallorca will simply give up playing football just because they are no longer in contention for international competition. They need to avoid slipping to twelfth place. At the same time, it could be an advantage to play without pressure.
Or have the teams that needed the points always won on the last matchday in various leagues? I’m just throwing out last week’s 4-1 win for Nuremberg against Braunschweig, or Mainz’s 2-2 draw that ruined Dortmund’s championship a few years ago.
And those were both away games for clubs that had practically nothing left to play for.
I don’t want to steer anyone towards betting on a draw or an away win, or even on “Double Chance X2” (2.45), but rather to raise awareness of the individual selections. For me, anything is possible here, which is why I’m going for a goal bet in the end.
Vallecano hasn’t exactly bagged its three wins in recent weeks with confidence, two 1-0s against Getafe and Las Palmas and a 2-1 against Celta Vigo, with a point in between in a 2-2 draw against Betis Sevilla.
The recent goals didn’t come out of nowhere; Vigo could easily have scored two or three. And the clean sheets against Getafe and Las Palmas were more down to luck. But I don’t expect things to go completely off the rails now.
Neither Mallorca nor Vallecano tend to see their results escalate. Mallorca are very compact, but that also means they struggle to play forward. However, they should still manage two goals in the end. Especially as Vallecano won’t be content with a narrow 1-0 win.
More than four goals, on the other hand, would be a big surprise. So I’m adding “Under 4.5 goals” to “Over 1.5 goals,” giving me tasty odds of 1.56 at Winamax. By the way, you can get up to $100 in free bets there if you’re not registered yet.
What’s more, all odds are free of betting tax and you can unlock more free bets and cash with the loyalty points you collect. On top of that, the odds here are very high, especially considering that the five percent betting tax is covered by the betting provider itself.
If I had to place a bet on this match, it would actually be “X2,” as I think the odds are too poor for RCD.
In addition, the club has performed well in direct encounters in recent years and has a decent away record. The Franjirrojos, on the other hand, have only won every third game at home.
Mallorca has remained unbeaten in the last six encounters, winning five (!) of them. Incidentally, we have seen two to four goals in just as many games during this period.
Conclusion: Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca have played 52 games against each other since 1959, and never more than four goals have been scored, so I’m going for “under 4.5 goals,” which shoots up when we add “over 1.5 goals” for two to four goals in the game.
In my opinion, this is the perfect bet for the match, which Vallecano should win due to Mallorca’s recent poor performances and the current situation. If the hosts win, they will qualify for international competition.
However, this pressure can quickly get to their heads, and the Franjirrojos have not won against RCD in six matches. They have also been fortunate in terms of conceding goals in recent games.
My Rayo Vallecano Mallorca prediction is therefore: 2-4 goals in the game.
