Bundesliga 21st matchday, Sunday, 09/02/2025 at 5:30 pm
Now that RB Leipzig has been eliminated from the Champions League, they could fully concentrate on the Bundesliga and defend their fourth place ahead of the “storming” VfB Stuttgart. But it won’t be easy.
On Saturday, they will host the in-form FC St. Pauli, who are fighting against relegation with impressive passion. The Hamburgers are giving their all – will that be enough to annoy RBL?
In my RB Leipzig St. Pauli betting tip, I don’t recommend betting against the Saxons’ almost uncanny winning streak against promoted teams.
Nevertheless, many of their attacks on the 21st Bundesliga match day will probably or not peter out in the opposing half of the field.
This pairing does not enjoy a long tradition in the German football league, but would you have thought that RBL has not even scored in over 360 league minutes against St. Pauli?
RB Leipzig have not scored against the Kiezkicker in their last four league games – a negative club record against an opponent in professional football!
At least there was a sense of achievement in the DFB Cup recently: in the second round of this year’s competition, the Saxons prevailed 4-2.
What do the betting providers predict?
According to the current RB Leipzig St. Pauli betting odds, the bookmakers consider the host to be the clear favorite for a home win at around 1.55.
On the other hand, a draw is quoted at an average of 4.30, which shows that the bookies are giving the guests at least a small outsider chance.
A full success for the Kiezkicker is even rewarded with a whopping 5.75 – so if you bet on the sensation here and are lucky, you could end up making a killing!
KI prediction RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli: That’s what ChatGPT bets on
Let’s now take a look at the RB Leipzig St. Pauli AI prediction from ChatGPT, which I plan to evaluate for you. Because yes, my betting buddies and I also use digital betting suggestions! However, we subject them to a strict reality check!
Speculating on a victory for RBL with a handicap of -2 in about 4.70 sounds tempting, but for me these odds are not high enough for me to actually take the high risk.
St. Pauli has presented itself strongly in recent weeks and is unlikely to be overrun like that.
“Under 2.5 goals” at around 2.15 is indeed an interesting option that can be classified as medium risk.
However, I’m not sure if this odds really offers enough value bet potential, as I fluctuate between a final score of 2:1 and 1:1.
On the other hand, “St. Pauli scores at least one goal” at 1.57 is a fairly safe AI tip with low risk that I like.
The Kiezkicker have been scoring reliably in the Bundesliga recently and even managed to score twice in their last appearance at the Red Bull Arena last October.
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli
RB Leipzig are under pressure despite being in the Bundesliga top 4, as Marco Rose’s team are now without a win for four league games (3 draws, 1 defeat).
The 0-0 draw against Union Berlin was particularly disappointing, with the Red Bulls managing just two shots on target and an xG value of 0.24.
This could be a bad omen before the clash with St. Pauli, because Leipzig have not scored a single goal against the Kiezkicker in their last four direct Bundesliga duels – as already mentioned – including a 0-0 in the first leg!
Nevertheless, the home side can rely on a strong home record: since January 2024, they have only lost one Bundesliga game in front of their own fans and have never experienced a five-game winless streak in the league.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, are traveling with a great deal of confidence, because with two wins and a draw in their last three games, they have put together a mini-series for the first time this season.
Only Bayern have picked up more points during this time, and defensively, only the record champions have been more stable on these three matchdays.
However, Hamburg remain a bit of a mixed bag away from home: for example, they have never drawn away from home (4 wins, 6 defeats).
Odds analysis
I’m focusing on two specific result bets for Sunday: a 1-1 and a 2-1 for RBL. Both results are trading at odds of 8.50 each and seem equally likely to me.
But for those who don’t want to take quite so much risk and are looking for a more certain RB Leipzig St. Pauli tip, I recommend selecting “Under 3.5 goals” in their sports betting app at average odds of just under 1.50.
After all, St. Pauli, of all teams, is the Bundesliga team visiting Leipzig, in whose games the 4-goal mark has been cracked the least this season (2 out of 20).
RB Leipzig vs. St. Pauli: It will be mercilessly bricked!
The numbers support my tendency that there will be fewer than four goals in this game.
On Sunday, RB Leipzig (9) and FC St. Pauli (7) will face each other. Both teams are among the three teams that, together with Bayern (9), have been able to collect the most clean sheets in the Bundesliga this season.
In addition, the Kiezkicker have also already ended 10 league games without scoring – a negative record in the league. Leipzig, on the other hand, have recently been scoreless for the fourth time at Union Berlin.
As you can see, there are many good reasons to believe that the respective defenses will dictate the course of the game this coming weekend.
Leipzig with an incredible series against promoted teams!
Both teams don’t exactly bring the greatest offensive potential to the game, we can already say that. Further data supports this assessment.
RB Leipzig have only had 221 shots so far this Bundesliga season (11.1 per game), with only Holstein Kiel having had fewer (217, 10.9 per game).
St. Pauli, on the other hand, have had the fewest shots on target, with only 65 (3.3 per game).
Therefore, I stick to it: There will be no hailstorm of goals at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday!
Breaking through will definitely not be easy for the RBL offense. Because FC St. Pauli, with only 22 goals conceded after 20 games, has the second-best defense in the Bundesliga season after FC Bayern Munich (19).
In this millennium, only two promoted teams have conceded fewer goals after 20 games: FC Ingolstadt 2015/16 (21) and upcoming opponents RB Leipzig 2016/17 (20).
But what RBL can throw into the mix is an impeccable record against Bundesliga newcomers, which I mentioned at the very beginning of my RB Leipzig St. Pauli prediction.
In all 34 Bundesliga duels against newly promoted teams, Leipzig have never come out on the losing side (30 wins, 4 draws) – that is the longest streak of its kind in Bundesliga history.
The only point loss in the last 18 duels against a new face, however, came on the 4th matchday of the current first half of the season, when they were guests at FC St. Pauli (0:0).
My RB Leipzig St. Pauli Tip:
RB Leipzig will dominate the game, but St. Pauli will sit deep and cleverly compress the spaces.
It should be a tough game with a lot of sideways passes, as Leipzig’s attacking efforts will repeatedly come to nothing.
The promoted team will rely on defensive stability, so it is quite possible that it could be 0-0 for a very long time on Sunday.
My RB Leipzig St. Pauli betting tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals.
