Champions League, Wednesday, 02.10.2024 at 9:00 pm
The bad news first: there is a fairly good chance that the second Champions League matchday between RB Leipzig and Juventus Turin will see a tough battle of attrition.
The good news: In my RB Leipzig Juventus betting tip, I will list numerous betting tips that would benefit from precisely this. Accordingly, with my main tip “Under 2.5 goals”, I also focus on a goal bet that is not compatible with an open exchange of blows.
Furthermore, I focus on the question of which direction Leipzig should actually take in the medium term.
Although Marco Rose’s team are currently ranked third in the Bundesliga after five matchdays, and have thus effectively got off to a successful start to the season, I am not fully convinced by the Saxons.
Therefore, I don’t think a home win against Juve is on the cards for the premier class.
In my RB Leipzig Juventus prediction, I consider the “double chance X2” at odds of 1.65 to be an excellent betting alternative, which I would like to recommend to you right from the start.
Unfortunately for Leipzig, they will face an extremely stable Italian team on Wednesday evening, who have not yet suffered a single defeat in the season so far.
As I will analyze in detail later, it is not unlikely that the Bundesliga club’s offensive efforts will be thwarted by the “Old Lady’s” concrete defense.
A first indication of the problems to be expected by Leipzig is provided by a glance at the classic 1×2 odds of our betting providers.
The bookmakers’ prediction
In the Betano app, we can see in black and white that RB Leipzig have the advantage in the encounter. Ultimately, however, the role of favorites is subject to a larger footnote.
Despite the nominal home advantage, the RB Leipzig Juventus odds for an RB home win are well above the 2.20 mark.
The 3.10 for a Juventus win is also not far away and the draw is priced at 3.40, which is well below average.
In short, the betting providers are not exactly convinced that RB will actually win at home.
As usual, ChatGPT also has something to say at this point. In our RB Leipzig Juventus AI prediction, we focus on three betting options with different risk ratings.
As a high-risk tip, the AI recommends the bet “Half-time/final score draw/Juventus”. And I have to honestly admit that I have rarely come across a more sensible high-risk tip from ChatGPT.
A 0-0 half-time score that ends in a 1-0 victory for the Italians? Absolutely conceivable!
And I have no objections to the medium risk either. Here the AI commits to the away win of the “Old Lady”. Since I also see Juve as stronger overall, I can only agree here.
Only with the third betting alternative does the AI then fall apart again. In this case, the bet is called “Over 2.5 goals”.
On the one hand, the bet is clearly contrary to my main tip. On the other hand, I will show below that the statistics clearly indicate that it will not be a high-scoring encounter.
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Juventus
Anyone who plays 0-0 against Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli will face problems in the medium term in the fight for the championship.
The previous 3-2 victory against Bayer Leverkusen does not change this. However, the defensive record so far has been very positive. After five match days in the Bundesliga, RB has only conceded two goals. No Bundesliga team is better.
However, their inconsistency in offense ultimately means that they need a lot of luck at critical moments, as they did in the 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League opener.
Therefore, I don’t expect RB to score more than one goal against Juve either. The odds for the “Under 1.5 RB goals” bet are a solid 1.65.
If you look at Juventus Turin’s record so far this season, even the “Under 0.5 RB goals” bet could come into focus (odds at 3.75).
After all, the “Old Lady” has not conceded a single goal in the first six Serie A games of the new season.
They have drawn three times 0-0. They also got off to a successful start in the Champions League with a 3-1 win against PSV Eindhoven.
The Turin-based club’s last competitive defeat came in April 2024 (1-2 against Lazio in the Coppa Italia). The bet “Juventus to win to zero” is a risky tip given the odds of 5.60.
However, I don’t consider a 1-0 victory for Turin in Leipzig to be an unrealistic scenario.
Odds analysis
The respective defensive records of both teams are unsurprisingly reflected in the odds for the various goal bets.
It is rather unusual that the odds for the classic “Over 2.5 goals” climb to 2.02 even without a odds boost. At the same time, the odds for the bet “Both teams score” are only slightly higher at around 1.70.
Can we conclude from this that the bookmakers are expecting a 1-1 draw in the clash between RB Leipzig and Juventus Turin? And indeed, from a betting point of view, a 1-1 draw is the most likely result, with odds of 6.70.
The 1:0 for Leipzig follows in a odds range of about 7.90. Hardly any goals? An even starting position? In this case, the “draw at half time” is of course an obvious option.
With odds of 2.10, I would definitely call it a value bet given the starting position.
It’s easier to live without conceding goals!
The fact is: RB Leipzig have been extremely stable so far, especially at home. In the Bundesliga, they are in second place at home with two wins and a draw.
They are also the only Bundesliga team not to have conceded a goal at home (5-0).
It is curious that Juventus Turin almost exactly mirror this record. After three away games in the Serie A, Juve have also recorded two wins and a draw and have a goal difference of 6-0.
Champions League routine for Juventus Turin
Given Leipzig’s relatively short history in European competition, it is not entirely surprising that the Saxons and Juventus Turin are meeting for the first time.
Nevertheless, RB can already look back on five duels with Serie A teams.
After matches against Atalanta Bergamo, SSC Napoli and Udinese Calcio, the balance is even with two wins, one draw and two defeats.
In contrast to Leipzig, Juve has been a regular in European club competitions for decades.
They even managed to win the top international competition for club teams in the 1984/85 and 1995/96 seasons. They last made it to the final in 2016/17.
But it is also true that the Italians have had noticeable problems in the premier competition in recent years.
They have not reached the quarter-finals since 2018/19. In their last appearance so far in the 2022/23 season, they even lost five of their six group games.
Despite everything, the general European Cup experience compared to Leipzig naturally speaks in favor of the Italians, especially since Leipzig have never made it past the last 16 since reaching the semi-finals in 2019/20.
Last season, RB were knocked out in the last 16 by Real Madrid (0-1, 1-1).
My RB Leipzig Juventus Tip:
There is no reason to beat about the bush: Since Leipzig and Juve were able to shine in the early stages of the season, particularly through stable defensive work, I expect a tactical duel in the direct duel, without the really big scoring chances.
The maturity of the players speaks for Juventus, while the home advantage favors the Saxons. So here, too, a stalemate is emerging.
Accordingly, my RB Leipzig Juventus betting tip is: There will be fewer than 2.5 goals in total.
