RB Salzburg – Real Madrid Prediction Club World Cup, Group H on Friday, 06/27/2025 at 03:00
The clash between the Red Bulls and the Royals is more explosive than expected! In my RB Salzburg Real Madrid tip, you’ll find out why this match is so important, get the latest odds and a promising prediction for this Club World Cup game.
The situation in Group H is clear: Salzburg and Real have four points each, and the winner on Friday night (3:00 a.m.) will advance to the round of 16 as group winner.
For this reason, Madrid in particular will take the game very seriously, as an early exit from the Club World Cup would be anything but a successful start to Xabi Alonso’s era as Real’s new coach.
The Austrians, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and are the clear underdogs. Advancing would have been a surprise anyway. Accordingly, the RB Salzburg Real Madrid prediction is: Real to win and both teams to score.
RB Salzburg – Real Madrid prediction & bets
Salzburg are the clear underdogs in their clash with Los Blancos, not least because their most recent encounter with the Spanish giants was not so long ago and ended in a 5-1 thrashing at the end of January.
A lot has changed for Madrid since their 5-1 victory in January. There were some worrying signs in the early stages of Xabi Alonso’s tenure. Madrid are conceding a lot of goals and have problems in defense. Now could be a good time for Salzburg to get their first positive result against the 15-time Champions League winners.
However, I don’t believe the Bulls will win, but the Mozart city team could score a goal. This bet offers you odds of 1.50 at Betano Sports Betting.
For comparison: If Real scores at least one goal, the odds are only 1.05. In this case, bets on the exact goal scorer would be more lucrative. If Jude Bellingham scores, you can look forward to odds of 2.62.
What you need to know about betting on RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid
- RB Salzburg played 0-0 against Al Hilal on the second matchday. The Austrian team has not played a game without scoring since October 2024.
- Real Madrid secured their first win of the season against Pachuca CF after a player was sent off with the score at 0-0. Los Blancos have received nine red cards in all competitions this season, the same number as in the last three seasons combined.
- Although the two European teams are level on points in Group H ahead of the final matchday, Real Madrid are currently favorites to win the group with odds of 1.13. Our AI tool gives RB Salzburg an xG prediction of 0.78, while the Spaniards come in at 2.89.
- Real Madrid defeated RB Salzburg 5-1 in the 2024/25 Champions League. Los Blancos have won 14 of their 24 games against Austrian opponents (6 draws, 4 defeats).
- Federico Valverde’s goal against CF Pachuca was the Uruguayan midfielder’s 18th goal contribution (10 goals, 8 assists) this season, just one shy of his record from the 2022/23 season (12 goals, 7 assists).
RB Salzburg – Real Madrid: odds analysis
Real Madrid did more than just hold on against Pachuca on matchday two. Despite Raul Asencio’s red card in the 9th minute, they left the pitch with a 3-1 victory.
These were important three points for the group standings, as the Spaniards are now level on four points with their opponents in the night’s game ahead of their final match against RB Salzburg. As many will have expected, Xabi Alonso’s players are the favorites here.
The Austrians can be very satisfied with four points from two games in a difficult group, but advancing would be the icing on the cake. At second glance, however, the performances were not quite as outstanding. The Red Bulls lost the expected goal difference in both games, with 0.29 xG against Pachuca and 1.06 xG against Al Hilal.
Do they now have the quality needed to keep Real at bay and put their defense under pressure in their biggest test so far?
A defeat against the Spaniards and a win for Al-Hilal against Pachuca would knock RB Salzburg out of the competition despite their respectable points tally.
Although the two European teams are level on points in Group H, the Spaniards are currently the clear favorites to win the group. Our AI tool predicts a goal difference in favor of Real Madrid: RB Salzburg 0.78 xG against 2.89 xG Real Madrid.
The bookmakers have given RB Salzburg an Asian handicap of +1.75. That’s a considerable handicap from Real’s point of view, as only a defeat by more than two goals would see you lose this bet. Bet365, our best bookmaker, offers odds of 1.84 for this.
Fortunately for Thomas Letsch’s team, Real are not only weakened by injuries, but also still finding their feet. Alonso’s new approach will need to be refined over a longer period of time before Los Blancos reach their optimal level.
Against this backdrop, you might be more inclined to back the underdogs with a significant handicap of +1.75.
The best odds for RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid
While Pachuca’s story in the Club World Cup ends after the group stage, the three remaining teams are fighting for a place in the round of 16. RB Salzburg has shown resilience, but remains unconvincing in the final third.
With Real’s odds at around 1.30 and a predicted goal count of 2.79, the pressure is on the Austrian runners-up.
The implied probability of Thomas Letsch’s team winning is only 11.4%. Advancing to the round of 16 will therefore most likely depend on whether Al-Hilal can win its last group match.
For Madrid, anything less than first place would be a disappointment. Given their 5-1 victory over the Red Bulls in this year’s Champions League, it’s hard to imagine any other result.
RB Salzburg vs Real Madrid match analysis:
Real Madrid should be dominating Group H, but after two matchdays they are tied with RB Salzburg for first place with four points. With Al-Hilal considered the favorite against CF Pachuca, this match in Philadelphia is hugely important for both European teams.
Salzburg’s three points came from an opening win against Pachuca, and like Madrid, they had to settle for a draw against Al-Hilal.
Salzburg, traditionally considered an underdog, is making its debut in this competition after a difficult Champions League season in which it suffered a bitter 1-5 defeat against Madrid and finished the group stage with the worst goal difference (-22).
Despite their youth, the Mozartstadt team is still in the running for promotion in this Club World Cup.
However, given Real Madrid’s impressive performance against Pachuca, where they secured victory despite being a man down for over 80 minutes, Xabi Alonso’s side are expected to cruise to a comfortable victory.
A major problem for Real Madrid recently has been their shaky defense, which has only kept two clean sheets in their last eight games. In addition, nine red cards this season show a worrying lack of discipline.
Salzburg’s weaknesses in front of goal – the team has failed to score in five of its eight Champions League games – and the return of Antonio Rüdiger to Madrid’s defense should help the 15-time CL winners secure first place.
RB Salzburg form check
Red Bull Salzburg struggled to maintain control in both games against Al Hilal and Pachuca, but are still on the verge of securing a place in the last 16 of the competition.
The Austrian side have shown resilience, losing only three of their last 18 games in all competitions. Before the goalless draw against Al Hilal on matchday two, they had scored in 16 consecutive competitive games.
This streak began after a goalless draw against Austria Klagenfurt in the Austrian Bundesliga on February 9.
It is worth noting that Salzburg have not gone two games in a row without scoring since October 2024.
Despite these promising statistics, Salzburg has not been in the best of form recently. Last season saw disappointing results in both the UEFA Champions League and the domestic Bundesliga.
In this Club World Cup, the Austrians have yet to show their true potential on American soil, despite an opening win against Pachuca.
Real Madrid form check
Real got off to an excellent start against Pachuca despite an unexpected red card for Raúl Asencio in the seventh minute. Goals from Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, and Fede Valverde secured a comfortable 3-1 victory over the Mexican club.
Coach Alonso showed his tactical flexibility by repeatedly adjusting the formation during the game. After initially starting with a 4-3-3 system, he had to rethink his strategy after the red card and switch to a 4-4-1 system.
Alonso’s willingness to adapt and even play with three center backs and two fullbacks underscores his proactive coaching style.
While the victory was impressive, Real also allowed the Mexicans numerous chances, forcing goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois to make several crucial saves. However, the Belgian was beaten once, and the ball ended up in the back of the net.
In the immediate future, Alonso will likely focus on solidifying the defense and instilling discipline so that they can secure their first title of the season in the Club World Cup.
My prediction: Real win and both teams score
