La Liga 23rd matchday, Saturday, 08/02/2025 at 9:00 PM
The first points are already flying back and forth before the Derbi Madrileno! On Saturday evening, it’s not just Spain holding its breath when Real host Atletico! Rarely has this match had such explosive power in recent years, because the Whites have only a one-point lead over their city rivals.
The Colchoneros know that they are the underdogs here, having not won at the Bernabeu for almost nine years. But in my Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid betting tip, I would like to tell you what still speaks in favor of the double chance X2 – the odds of 1.94 at Winamax in any case!
Anyone who has been following the Spanish top teams since the beginning of this season knows that the two teams from the capital are actually the protagonists in our La Liga championship bets – with Atletico being given the smaller chances here.
It is precisely these critics that Simeone’s team would like to prove wrong, to show that they too are very much in the running for the title. Of course, it’s no wonder that they score with a very strong defense, which only allowed one goal against Real in the first leg.
Take a deep breath, sit down, and look forward to this derby! With my analysis, I not only want to introduce you to the strengths of the guests, but also, of course, ensure that you can’t wait for the kick-off on Saturday evening at 9 p.m.
The betting odds?
Real have won nine of their ten home games this season, only losing heavily to Barca. Since 2016, there has been no home defeat against Atletico, so our German bookmakers are offering odds of 1.88.
Atletico, on the other hand, start the game with an average of 4.05. Disappointed about that? The players certainly are not, after all, they were also so far behind against FC Barcelona and were able to show everyone in the end.
A draw has been the favorite result in the Derbi Madrileno for several years now, with five of the last seven having no winner. You should therefore not rule out the draw, which would get you odds of 3.60.
Analysis: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
It is the table situation that makes this derby Madrileno even more special this time. 49 points for Real, 48 for Atletico, 45 for pursuers Barcelona, the title race could hardly be more exciting.
I would like to start my analysis with Atletico Madrid, because I have to admit: I did not expect the team to be so strong after 22 rounds. With eight wins in a row, they played their way to the top, and the end of the year became a guarantor for success.
When they finally lost 0-1 to Leganes in a complete surprise, and nobody was satisfied with the 1-1 draw against Villarreal either, Atletico was able to avert the mini-crisis again with a 2-0 win against Mallorca.
With 14 goals conceded, the Colchoneros have the best defense, with only two goals scored in their own box. Nine wins and three draws, in their own stadium they are an absolute power.
There is no getting around the fact that they have some catching up to do away from home, where their win rate is only 50 percent with five wins, three draws and two defeats. 14:7 goals? The average is 2.1!
Only three away games crossed the 2.5-goal mark, so Atletico have earned their current second place, no question about it. But if it weren’t for the final minutes, they probably wouldn’t be so far ahead!
Five draws from the last seven direct duels – I can only decide on a point split for the 1×2 bets here! Neither should lose under any circumstances, which makes the draw even more realistic in my eyes.
When it comes to defense, nobody can beat the Colchoneros again, and both Real, even more so, had to save their strength in the cup during the week. That’s why I’m backing the “Under 2.5 goals” bet at odds of 2.05.
When it comes to a result bet, in my opinion only a 1-1 is possible, which is how three of the last four derbies in the league have ended. The odds for this draw are 7.30.
Superstars will be on the pitch in abundance on Saturday – and on Sunday too! Some La Liga pros are sure to watch the Super Bowl live, and the betting fans have of course already provided their predictions for you.
Will things get serious after the break?
After a five-game break, Atletico scored again against Mallorca in the first half, with a total of 11 goals being scored before half-time. In the second 45 minutes, however, the team scored 26 goals.
What I can see from Real Madrid: Only six goals conceded in the first half, but 15 in the second! These two statistics complement each other so well that they call for a few bets.
Eight of the 19 meetings between the two ended 0-0 at half-time. Since the one hardly scores during this period and the other does not concede any goals, this is also an option in the current derby. At Winamax, my partner for the main bet, you can expect odds of 3.15.
What’s more, Winamax offers a great new customer bonus. Click on the graphic, register and collect up to €100 in free bets.
Odds Analysis
If you want to achieve a lower odds, you can simply say: Atletico do not score in the first half. At Interwetten, a value of 1.57 is due here. Or the other way around: the guests score in the second half. Now we are at a 2.05.
Interwetten basically offers a betting option for everyone, which is precisely why this bookie also offers you a strong freebet. Anyone who knows the Colchoneros is aware that they not only like to score after the break, but especially just before the final whistle.
The 2-0 against Mallorca came in injury time, and it was already the tenth goal scored from minute 90. When did Atletico score the equalizer in the 1-1 draw against Real in the first half of the season? In minute 90+5, of course!
Atletico have now drawn 1-1 in the derby twice in a row by taking full advantage of injury time. In any case, three of the last four league duels have ended in a 1-1 draw, and I wouldn’t claim that a spectacle is on the cards on Saturday either.
In fact, all the matches played at the Whites’ stadium have seen under 2.5 goals for nine league matches. Fighting spirit and passion are the order of the day, but a wild back and forth is gladly left out.
Four wins, three defeats, three draws, three wins, now two draws again? Real can look back on these series results in home games in the league. Since the results always came in sets of at least three, a draw should actually be on the cards again.
In contrast to Atletico (5-0 against Getafe), the Whites had to work hard to avoid elimination from the Copa del Rey a few days ago. They squandered a 2-0 lead against Leganes and only saved themselves in injury time to win 3-2.
They have also had a tough time in the league recently, surprisingly losing 1-0 at Espanyol Barcelona. They then sent angry voices out that they were being disadvantaged by the referees and called for a reform.
Atletico’s reaction: a tired smile and a sharp provocation in the form of a witty social media post. The Colchoneros say: someone is trying to put pressure on the referee before the derby!
The league leaders have never gone two consecutive league games without a win. When they haven’t won, they have always scored two or more goals themselves in the next game.
Like Atletico, Real love playing at home, and have won all nine of their matches apart from the 4-0 defeat in the Clasico against Barca. Strong: Eight of the nine victories had a handicap of at least -1.
Remarkable: In the last seven home games, Real scored 13 times before half-time – and only six times after! One interesting question fans are asking is: who will be able to play at all on Saturday?
With David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger, Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal, four defenders are out! Since there are no injuries on the visitors’ side, this can certainly be seen as a disadvantage.
My prediction:
There is only one thing you can bet on Saturday – unless you are a fan of FC Barcelona! The Catalans’ fans will surely want a draw, but Real and Atletico have to go all out in this derby.
Atletico have often had the luck of the brave this season, defend really well, didn’t have to exhaust themselves in the cup and have all their regular players fit on board. I see a few decisive advantages here compared to Real.
They lack defensive strength, the Copa was exhausting and there have been many draws against Atletico in recent years. For these reasons, I have decided to present the following tip:
Atletico will not lose at the Bernabeu!
