Real Madrid – Benfica Lisbon Tip Champions League, playoffs, second leg on Wednesday, 25.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
While the bookmakers focus on Kylian Mbappe, I prefer to focus on his slightly underestimated strike partner for a Real Madrid Benfica tip!
Strictly speaking, this is about the selection Vinicius Jr. makes, which comes with a fancy win multiplier of 2.2× with which Sportwetten.de new customer bonus can be combined and, last but not least, has a fairly high probability of occurrence.
The Brazilian is the man of the hour in the Spanish capital and not a whit less dangerous than Mbappe. Vinicius Jr. already scored in the first leg and even added another goal against Osasuna in La Liga at the weekend.
The fact is: After the change of coach, he is one of the players who are most on the upswing at the Whites.
This duel is bursting with history – a short and crisp Real Madrid Benfica tip like this is hardly enough to go into it comprehensively! In any case, this is already the sixth meeting between the two clubs in this competition alone!
Although Real won last week, Benfica are still among the two teams Madrid have faced five or more times in the Champions League, losing more (3) than winning (2). That will certainly give the Portuguese fans courage.
By the way: The only other club against which the Spaniards have a comparably negative record is AC Milan.
Real Madrid – Benfica Lisbon Prediction & Betting
I thought about which football bets I would make in addition to my player bet on Vinicius Junior, which I have already presented to you.
Looking at the odds of the German bookmakers for Wednesday, I decided on a cobbled together Real Madrid Benfica tip, which reads as follows and promises values around 3.15: Benfica over 1.5 goals & Both teams score.
Because the weak performance of the Whites at Osasuna in La Liga naturally raises questions.
I just don’t quite trust this defence, but with this combination bet I deliberately leave the back door open in case Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe get the chestnuts out of the fire again.
What you need to know about Real Madrid vs. Benfica betting
- Statistical advantage Madrid: Real are historically almost unbeatable if they have won the first leg – in 22 out of 23 cases, the Whites have then reached the next round, even if the 4-2 defeat to Benfica from the league stage serves as a warning.
- Spain complex of the “Eagles”: Benfica have a weak record against La Liga teams and have lost six of their last eight duels against Spanish opponents, including two defeats against Barca last season.
- Defensive record chasers: With the 1-0 win in the first leg, Real Madrid secured their 115th clean sheet in the Champions League and drew level with record holders Bayern Munich – for Thibaut Courtois it was the 33rd game without conceding a goal in the competition.
- All-or-nothing in Madrid: While Benfica have rarely been involved in games with goals on both sides this European season (only 2 of 9 games), the starting position after the eventful 4-2 victory of the Portuguese in January promises an attacking spectacle.
Real Madrid – Benfica Lisbon: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Real Madrid Benfica AI prediction also has a suggestion up its sleeve for you, for which there are odds of around 1.80 if successful – double chance 1X & both teams to score.
The Portuguese want to cause a ruckus in the opponent’s box, as they have a deficit to make up. But our calculation model still doesn’t seem to believe that the Portuguese can do more than a 1:1, 2:2 or even 3:3 at most – a mistake in my eyes.
Because Real cannot be relied on at the moment, and their win odds of around 1.50 are completely uninteresting against this background. The values for a supposed surprise of the guests from Lisbon are much more appealing in many respects!
1st goal: Benfica at 3.10 is also suggested to me. And honestly, a neon sign with the bold inscription “Value” instinctively pops up in my head.
Because what is a 50:50 scenario in my eyes at worst promises you a fat 3.1× on any reasonable sports betting app. In addition, Benfica have scored 1-0 within the first 20 minutes of each of their last four competitive games.
The only justified mini-drawback: The opponents in question cannot be compared with the Whites in terms of playing quality.
The best odds for Real Madrid vs. Benfica Lisbon
The bookmakers seem to paint a somewhat too clear picture.
Even though the Whites won the first leg, the role of favourites within the current Real Madrid Benfica odds seems almost exaggerated – the markets rely heavily on the home strength and individual class of the Spaniards.
A home win for Real is 1.43. The bookmakers firmly expect the home side to dominate the game, control the ball and tempo and leave the guests hardly any room to develop.
The draw, on the other hand, is led to 5.10. However, a stalemate after 90 minutes would indeed be conceivable if Benfica defended disciplined and Real weakened in converting chances – but in the bookmaker’s opinion a very unlikely scenario!
An away win for Benfica is 6.00. The Portuguese travel as outsiders, but could cause isolated turbulence with tactical cleverness or counterattacks.
The Real Madrid Benfica odds thus clearly show that the markets favour the home side, even if the result could possibly be closer than these figures suggest.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Match Analysis:
Precisely because Osasuna mercilessly exposed the weaknesses in the Madrid defence’s defence in the 2-1 win at the weekend, there is hope for a surprising result for Benfica.
I’m expecting a wild, sometimes unpredictable game anyway, in which a good four to five goals could be scored.
Real will control the game for long stretches, circulate the ball in their own ranks and constantly build up pressure. But the experience from the league game shows that any high ball loss can put them in dire straits at any time.
Players like Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr. are able to score from distance or dangerously get involved in their own offensive play over 90 minutes for the Spaniards.
Benfica will have their hands full trying to keep these two under control. I therefore expect an offensive spectacle with many chances, speed and spectacular moments on both sides, although I am unsure whether Real will really live up to their role as favourites!
Real Madrid form check
The Madrilenians go into the second leg of the Champions League play-offs with a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg after embarrassing themselves to the bone in the Basque Country at the weekend.
This puts them in second place in La Liga, but in order to secure a place in the round of 16 of the Champions League, the team must be much more stable and at the same time increase its performance in both halves of the game!
In the first leg, Los Blancos primarily demonstrated their defensive qualities by keeping a clean sheet for the 115th time in Champions League history – on a par with the great FC Bayern!
Real Madrid are missing key players for the second leg. Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham are injured, so Los Blancos are expected to play in a 4-4-2 system, with Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe as a striker duo.
Arda Güler could start in midfield, while Dean Huijsen, Dani Ceballos and Eder Militao are out. Real Madrid will therefore have to rotate wisely and show discipline to defend their lead and ensure progression.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Benfica were able to get back on track in the Portuguese league on Saturday, beating AVS 3-0. Despite the victory, they are still seven points behind league leaders Porto.
The return leg at the Santiago Bernabeu would require a huge effort, as Benfica have only managed to win one of eight previous knockout ties in European competition when losing the first leg at home.
In addition, Benfica have historically had little success against Spanish teams, losing six of their last eight games against La Liga clubs, including both home and away defeats against Barcelona in last season’s round of 16.
Joao Veloso is out for the second leg, while Vangelis Pavlidis is to play as the main striker. Pavlidis has been the central attacking force this season and will try to have more success than in the first leg.
Goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin, who helped Benfica reach the knockout stages, will once again have to play a key defensive role if the Portuguese are to survive at the Bernabeu and actually win the second leg.
Benfica must therefore be compact for 90 minutes, make effective use of the chances and rely on the offensive power of Pavlidis and Trubin’s reaction speed in goal.
