Champions League, Tuesday, 22.10.2024 at 21:00
On to the defending champions, on to one of the fearful opponents! In our Champions League tips, there will be a rematch of the 2024 final on Tuesday, but in my Real Madrid Dortmund betting tip, I think the Bundesliga club’s chances of winning are relatively slim.
Therefore, I can’t go for the visitors, but instead predict a home win with more than 1.5 goals. I angle the corresponding odds at Merkur Bets. Are the two clubs worlds apart or just nuances like in the final?
Let’s put it this way: The Whites can put their opponents in their place and get clear results, but it can also be really close, which has already been shown against Lille in the Champions League.
The Real Madrid Dortmund odds see the home side in front, with an average of 1.48 to 5.60. No wonder, considering that the competition’s record champions have never lost at home to the Black & Yellows.
In my detailed analysis, I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the German team, but I’ll still tell you why I think there’s a lot to be said for the home side. And, of course, why I’m not betting on a boring game!
The bookmakers’ prediction
Real Madrid at home in the Bernabeu? There are hardly any constellations in which the Whites are not favored at home. In the case of this match, the odds with our betting providers are an average of 1.48 without tax.
Dortmund will certainly not be upset about their underdog role, as they know that this is quite normal in Madrid. Should they nevertheless win on Tuesday, the bookies would reward this with odds of 5.60.
A draw would certainly be a success for Borussia. However, since a third of all duels have ended without a winner, we should keep an eye on the odds of 4.80.
KI prediction Real Madrid vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
This duel is of course also particularly interesting for ChatGPT, as the two clubs have already given us a very interesting final in 2024. In this respect, I asked the AI which bets could be useful here.
The bet that Jude Bellingham will score the first goal of the match – against his former club – offers a high risk. My assessment: risky! The Englishman is still waiting for his first goal of the season, so I’d probably steer clear of this bet.
I like the medium risk better, as it foresees a win for the favorite with goals on both sides. Real is my favorite, but since BVB has netted ten times in two games, there is also a threat from the Black & Yellows.
And then there’s also the “only” bet that both teams will score. There’s no question about it, I wouldn’t put it past Dortmund. If only because the Madrilenians have scored twice in the last two games.
Analysis: Real Madrid vs Dortmund
It was June 1, 2024, when BVB’s big dream didn’t come true. Despite an outstanding performance, they failed to win their first Champions League title since 1997, losing 2-0 to Real Madrid in the final.
The Borussians were simply not rewarded for their many chances, but will they get another chance in 2024/25? It’s hard to say, as the competition has been revolutionized from the ground up
The eight best teams from the endless group stage march straight through to the knockout phase – and if the Black & Yellows continue like this, they will definitely be part of this double quartet!
After beating Brugge 3-0 to open the competition, they swept aside Celtic Glasgow 7-1 and now have ten goals from just two games. Knowing full well that the real challenges are just around the corner,
Odds analyse
There are of course plenty of betting options between Real and Dortmund. Since the defending champions haven’t quite convinced me yet in the CL, BVB could perhaps capitalize on this and score the 1:0. At Betano, this bet would have odds of 2.90.
Serhou Guirassy is in impressive form, so the most dangerous man in black and yellow will be keen to make his presence felt at the Bernabeu. Should he manage to score, you can take odds of 3.30 with Oddset.
Since I’m betting on the Spaniards to win after 90 minutes, but at the same time have my eye on BVB taking the lead, this means that the favorite would have to win after falling behind. At Betano, this bet has odds of 5.90.
Is Dortmund finally showing some consistency?
Strangely enough, Dortmund are achieving the kind of consistency in the Champions League that simply won’t happen in the Bundesliga. Most recently, BVB won 2:1 with difficulty against FC St. Pauli.
Although all four home games ended in victory, they did not win away from home in Bremen, Stuttgart or Berlin. So how convincing was the 3-0 win against Bruges?
Both teams were actually equal, so the finalists were allowed to take a deep breath. So the mood is a little tense, and a strong result against Real would certainly improve it.
How much will Real concede?
They have never won at Real, and all three of their victories have come in their own stadium. They have conceded at least two goals in all of their appearances. Interestingly, they have conceded exactly two goals in five of their seven matches.
At Oddset, exactly two goals from the Madrilenians would have odds of 3.40. Of course, Real would be satisfied with an unadorned 2:1, after all, only the points count and they have three less than BVB!
On the first matchday, the team managed a 3:1 win against Stuttgart. It may sound confident, but it wasn’t at all. They scored on 83 and 90+5 minutes to secure victory and were lucky that VfB missed a number of top chances.
A little later, Real suffered their first setback: a 0:1 in Lille? In 2023/24, they hadn’t lost a single game in the entire CL season, but now they’ve already suffered their first defeat.
Madrid were the slightly better team, but in the end a penalty was enough for them to concede. Even in the Primera Division, it is not as if the reigning champions are completely dominating their rivals.
The most recent result was a narrow 2:1 against Celta Vigo, before which they had equalized 1:1 in stoppage time in the derby against Atletico. Incidentally, it is interesting that the Clasico is coming up directly after the clash with BVB.
Since Barcelona are incredibly strong on the road, Real must not take the match lightly. So it’s quite unfortunate that two such important games follow on from each other.
At the same time, however, I have to say: Regardless of whether it’s the CL or the league, Real have won everything at home in the Bernabeu this season. The arena is not a good place for Borussia Dortmund anyway.
My Real Madrid Dortmund tip:
Can Borussia Dortmund avenge their defeat in the final? BVB travel to Madrid in top international form, wanting to hide the fact that things are far less consistent in the Bundesliga.
Knowing full well, of course, that they have never won at the Bernabeu. Although not everything is perfect in 2024/25, I think Real are simply too ripped off, especially in their own stadium.
Matches between Madrid and Dortmund are not usually boring, especially when they are played in the Spanish capital. That’s why I’ve decided to place the following bet:
If the home side win, there will be at least 2 goals!
