Champions League, Wednesday, 02/19/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Part two of the giants’ duel is coming up – and now it’s all or nothing! In my Real Madrid Manchester City betting tip, I can already say that it is anything but easy for me to pick a favorite, because neither of them is dancing flawlessly through the competition.
Anyone who has been following our Champions League tips from the start knows that there have been a few defensive mistakes on both sides. The Skyblues in particular are shaky, which is why I ultimately decided on the “double chance 1X” bet with over 2.5 goals.
The first leg went 3-2 to the Royal Family, so on Wednesday they can sit back and relax and wait for the guests’ attempts. And they know that in recent years they have knocked so many clubs off the island, so they’d like to continue that in 2025.
Real would only have to hold on to their narrow lead, but I don’t expect Madrid’s star ensemble to be able to play like that at all – after all, at least four goals are always scored at the Bernabeu in the CL!
So you can be extremely excited about what will happen in the Spanish capital on Wednesday. One thing is for sure: the hosts will advance, and it will definitely not be boring!
The bookmakers’ prediction
If our bookmakers have their way, they can well imagine that Real will advance after regular time. The corresponding odds don’t even make it to 1.80 on average.
The situation is quite different for Manchester City, who need a win to at least get into extra time. With odds of 3.95, it does not seem likely that the game will be particularly exciting.
A draw would be enough for the Whites, and they came within a draw of doing so in the first leg at the Etihad. If that happens again and you have also bet on it, you can expect odds of 4.20.
Who is the favorite for the AI? The three betting suggestions that I had ChatGPT generate for me don’t really answer that for me, but they’re definitely very interesting.
One of them is: Real Madrid wins both halves. That would basically imply that the game would end relatively clearly – I’m rather skeptical about that. Since all of Madrid’s previous wins against City have been close, that would also be my approach for this duel.
If Manchester City don’t lose, we would be looking at a double chance X2 and thus right in the middle risk area. I can well imagine this tip because a draw, which would be enough for Real, is very popular.
When will Real kick into turbo? The AI suggests the tip “goals in half time 1”, but only means the hosts. Madrid have scored 23 goals in this CL season, but only five before half-time! So, to be honest, I’m not so sure whether this bet is suitable.
Analysis: Real Madrid vs Manchester City
It was a game that didn’t deserve a winner, but in the end it got one in dramatic fashion! Manchester City and Real Madrid are fighting for a place in the last 16.
Word has got around in Europe, of course, that Pep Guardiola’s side are in a very difficult situation and were lucky to even reach the playoffs in the premier class.
A brace from Erling Haaland was not enough last week, with Real countering both times they fell behind. When the Madrilenians scored the 2-2 equalizer in the 86th minute, many assumed that this would be the final score.
But the visitors still had one more in the quiver. Jude Bellingham netted in minute 90+2 to secure the first victory at the Etihad of all time. Exactly this Jude Bellingham, by the way, showed a little later in the league that he is nevertheless still chasing his top form from last season.
He was sent off after just under 40 minutes against Osasuna, with Real only drawing 1-1 and are now without a win for three games. At least: Their rivals Atletico also slipped up (1-1 against Celta Vigo) and were therefore unable to overtake them.
Odds analysis
Real have already gone into the break behind four times this CL season, only against RB Salzburg and Brest had they managed to take the lead. Therefore, I advise the “Double Chance X2” after the first 45 minutes, at Betano we get a quote of 1.65 for this.
The Citizens have to put their opponents under pressure early on and score quickly to take a 1-0 lead. Since Real are far from being in top form, I let myself be tempted to bet on “City to score first”. Now the odds are 2.35.
Of course, an outcome bet always carries an incredibly high risk, but luckily that also applies to the chance of winning. I choose a 2-2 draw, which almost happened in the first leg. The Bet365 app rewards this courage with odds of 11.0.
Speaking of choices, a few days after the playoff decisions, things will also be getting exciting in Germany away from the sporting stage, because the federal election is coming up! Wettfreunde has all the information, data and odds for you, always up to date.
Maybe now they will be able to continue their offensive streak in the Champions League and gain new self-confidence for the Primera Division. 3:2 against Atalanta, 5:1 against RB Salzburg, 3:0 against Brest and 3:2 against City, the number of goals speaks for itself.
But if you take a closer look at the results, you’ll see that it’s not as if the Madrilenians are pulling away from the start. 14 goals were scored in these four games, only four of them in the first half.
If I take the entire group stage into account, we are at 23 goals – and 18 of them fall in the second half! So you could risk betting that there will be a double in the second 45 minutes on Wednesday.
At Betano, the corresponding bet has odds of 2.57. I can tell you right away: In five of the last six CL games, City has conceded at least two after the second half, so that should fit!
3:3, 1:1, 2:1 (3:1 a.e.t.), 1:2, 1:0 and 3:2, the previous results that Real achieved against Manchester City at the Bernabeu show how close it was. But now over to the English side, which I just mentioned.
The reigning champions of England have been raising questions among their fans and neutral football fans for months. Their former sovereignty is gone, instead they regularly appear as a shooting gallery.
It was only the 3-1 win over Bruges in the preliminary round final that secured their place in the play-offs; an elimination in the group stage would have been the last straw in a crisis. So what is the state of the defense?
After the first three games (0-0 against Inter Milan, 4-0 against Slovan Bratislava and 5-0 against Sparta Prague), City collapsed completely. 1-4 against Sporting Lisbon, 3-3 against Feyenoord Rotterdam, 0-2 against Juventus Turin and 2-4 against PSG, it hailed goal after goal after goal!
17 goals conceded in the last six games, that’s almost three goals per game. Against Sporting, PSG and Feyenoord, Bruges and Real, City even took the lead, but even 2-0 or 3-0 was not enough in the end.
My tip
Can Manchester City somehow break the Real curse? The Whites have enjoyed playing against English teams for the last four years, sending one team back to the island after another during this period.
Although the Whites wobble from time to time, it’s nothing compared to what Manchester City are doing. Away from home in particular, Guardiola’s team are not getting anything done in the CL, conceding goal after goal.
Based on the facts I have collected, I have therefore decided to rule out an away win. And since I have seen both defensive lines perform much better, I will summarize everything in the following tip:
Real will not lose with over 2.5 goals!
