Real Madrid – Monaco Tip Champions League, Matchday 7 on Tuesday, 20/01/2026 at 21:00 CET
Unfortunately, the Alonso project did not work as hoped in the Spanish capital. But what undoubtedly “works” are a selected sportsbook deposit bonus as well as the foot of Kylian Mbappe.
Because while I simply can’t bring myself to win for the Madrilenians on my betting slip with regard to Tuesday, I trust the Frenchman’s accuracy all the more.
My preferred Real Madrid Monaco tip is therefore based on a goal from Mbappe, among other things, also because opposing defense should offer him a relatively large area to attack.
The Monegasques have played Champions League away games against comparable teams such as Arsenal and Inter since the start of 2024/25, conceding three goals in both cases.
Because everyone wants to see whether the crisis at the Madrid team will lead to real chaos. After all, a direct place in the round of 16 remains the clear, irrefutable goal of the board of directors of the Whites! New coach Alvaro Arbeloa will also be judged by this.
Real Madrid – Monaco Prediction & Betting
So ganz zu einem Heimsieg durchringen kann ich mich nicht. Dafür habe ich den einen oder anderen sehr vielversprechenden Real Madrid Monaco Tipp im Köcher, bei dem ich mich einfach wohler fühle!
Die Auswahl Monaco: Über 1.5 Tore ist zwar ebenfalls kein wirklich „sicherer Wettvorschlag“, aber bei Quoten um die 3.65 zumindest einer mit einer hohen Rendite.
Denn wenn ich etwas nach dem Aus gegen Albiceleste in der Copa del Rey verstanden habe, dann, dass Real völlig von der Rolle ist.
Über 2.5 Tore ist dagegen eine sichere Alternative, selbst wenn die hierzu im Schnitt auf den Märkten gehandelten 1.40 nicht gerade als üppig bezeichnet werden können. Doch dafür erfüllte bereits jedes der letzten vier Spiele der Monegassen diese Bedingung.
What you need to know about Real Madrid vs. Monaco betting
- Real Madrid have lost two of their last three Champions League games, but have a strong home record at the Bernabeu.
- Monaco have only scored seven goals so far, but statistically fell far short of their scoring chances.
- The Whites score more than twice per game on average at home and concede only about one goal.
- Kylian Mbappe is scoring an average of every 49 minutes for Real Madrid in the current European season.
Real Madrid – Monaco: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Even without Xabi Alonso and despite the embarrassment in the Spanish Copa del Rey, I agree with our Real Madrid Monaco AI prediction on many points!
Our data model advises Real Madrid to win, which I can leave as it is in principle. The problem, however, is that in view of odds, which are only 1.30 on average in the event of success, I feel absolutely no incentive to contact a betting provider with PayPal as soon as possible.
On the other hand, I find the second computer-generated proposal far more interesting, which promises a payout that is more than twice as high.
The selection Both meet at odds around 1.70 meets with much more love with me. To understand this, a little basic psychological understanding is enough.
Because Los Blancos, who were unsettled after the sacking of Xabi Alonso, have been given three goals in the Copa del Rey by second division Albacete. This only further shakes the confidence of the Madrid defence in its own abilities!
Win Real Madrid & Both teams to score is therefore last but not least the combination bet with match outcome that I like the most. Especially since you can also expect significantly higher odds compared to a conventional home win bet – around 2.30.
The best odds for Real Madrid vs. Monaco
Let’s take a look at the Real Madrid Monaco odds – and it immediately becomes apparent: The bookmakers favor the Madrilenians, perhaps even a tad too much.
The dismissal of coach Alonso has obviously left its mark, but the markets still clearly expect a victory for the hosts.
A home win for Los Blancos is rated 1.25. The bookmakers rely on the individual class, home strength and experience of the Whites in big games. Even though internal unrest could be felt, markets continue to see Real as the dominant force.
The draw is 6.25. This odds signal that the bookmakers only see a draw in a scenario in which Monaco defends cleverly, Real is unsettled or the game remains tactically balanced.
An away win for the Monegasques is traded at 9.00. The bookmakers clearly classify the guests as outsiders. Efficiency, defensive stability and an almost perfect game would have to come together for Monaco to put the favourites in trouble.
Real Madrid vs Monaco Match Analysis:
In terms of the course of the game, this could be a lively story, in which Real Madrid takes the reins from the start, but Monaco can certainly cause unrest.
Alvaro Arbeloa makes his debut as coach of the Whites in the Champions League, and the hosts have everything to lose – a three-point win is mandatory to keep their chances of direct qualification for the round of 16 alive.
So you can expect high pressing, many phases of possession in midfield and early dominance. Real will try to keep the pace of the game high immediately, take advantage of gaps in the Monegasque’s midfield and create scoring chances through quick changes of ends.
Real Madrid vs Monaco – Record last five games:
But Monaco will not hide at all. Despite only 9 points in the league phase, they can approach the game as a “bonus game”, act tactically disciplined and rely on counterattacks.
The French do not necessarily have to win in terms of the table, but they can still ensure that Real do not dominate comfortably with a stable defence and targeted attacks on quick finishes.
Thus, an intense, back-and-forth game with chances on both sides and some spectacular actions is likely. Especially in careless moments in the defense of the already insecure Madrilenians, quick transitions could be dangerous.
Real Madrid form check
As fifteen-time Champions League and European Cup winners, Real Madrid compete in every competition with high demands, but this match against Monaco is particularly explosive.
After the recent dismissal of Xabi Alonso and bitter defeats against Barcelona in the Super Cup and against Albacete in the Copa del Rey, the Whites are under enormous pressure – they have to catch themselves!
In La Liga, they are currently in second place, which is known to be worth nothing to the board – but a bad outcome in the Champions League could only complicate the already precarious situation!
The remaining fixtures favour Real Madrid, especially the last away game at Benfica on matchday eight, which I consider a solvable task!
Nevertheless, they showed weaknesses in their first Champions League game of the 2025/26 season against another French opponent. Monaco should therefore not be taken lightly any more than Marseille (2-1).
Historically, however, the Whites rarely stumble into major crises and the 2-0 victory over Levante last Saturday should have instilled important self-confidence in the Madrilenians.
Monaco Form Check
Monaco travel to Madrid with a tailwind and are unbeaten in their last five Champions League matchdays (W2 D3), marking their longest unbeaten run in the Champions League since November 2016.
This form gives the Monegasques self-confidence and is one of the reasons why I simply take a critical look at the Real odds of 1.30 on average for a home win.
It is particularly noteworthy that Monaco have won five of their last eight UCL games against Spanish teams (3 defeats).
With nine points and one last league game at home against Juventus, the Monegasques have a realistic chance of making the play-offs. If they hadn’t conceded the late equaliser against Pafos on matchday 5, then qualification would already be certain!
They will come under pressure at the Bernabeu, but their fast transition game and high speed in direct play (an average of 2.06 metres per second, the highest in this year’s Champions League) allow them to counterattack dangerously.
Monaco also have a flexible attack, based on fast advances and particularly designed for counter-attacking chances – a weapon that could well cause Real Madrid problems on home turf.
